Iterative Refinement

[Padawan]

Quote from dkm:

Lateral movement between pt2 and pt3 is seen as continuation because pt3 has yet to appear. After pt3 has been formed, lateral movement = change. We must consider context.

Must admit I'm still struggling with this comment, dkm. Would you mind saying a little more about lateral movement after the pt3 is formed?

 

[Mr_Black]

My ym chart from 051908...

 

[cnms2]

I believe that in light of your earlier comment about decreasing dominant volume after Pt3 being a signal of change, you're referring at the 14:05 bar (on my chart). Its volume being at flaw level is a good reason to hold through.

Quote from Spydertrader:

You should now have the ability to do the same thing beginning at 13:30 [close of] ES Bar (all times eastern, BTW). Based on your current skill set, only one Bar should give you a problem between then and now.

Bonus Question: Where does the answer reside for that one bar?

- Spydertrader

 

[cnms2]

I have this channel on my chart too.

Quote from TIKITRADER:

Here is the ES Daily chart but with the channel changed to the longer term trend.

I wanted to post this and even received feedback on this channel, but I am not sure if it is valid.
The point 2 is in question for myself.

Anyone would like to give feedback on this.

Valid channel ?
Point 1 = FTT,Point 2 = mid March, and Point 3 = mid April.

Also thank you to all the warm well wishes in pm. Very kind thoughts.

 

[dkm]

Quote from Padawan:

Must admit I'm still struggling with this comment, dkm. Would you mind saying a little more about lateral movement after the pt3 is formed?

All I was trying to say was that if a pt3 has not yet formed one must be mindful of the possibility that price can move laterally to form the pt3. After pt3 appears, we anticipate that the trend will continue. If price enters a new lateral we should not necessarily expect price to exit the lateral and continue the previous trend. From this point of view, the lateral before the pt3 is "continuation" (of the trend) and a cause to hold whereas the beginning of the next lateral should be considered as "change". This is why context makes a difference to how one should view laterals. Of course, on a bar to bar basis, all bars within a lateral are "continuation" of the lateral, by definition. Apologies for the confusion

 

[palinuro]

Quote from dkm:

ES 20080519 perceived points of change. All actions are bar close.

dkm,

Thanks for posting that, I find these helpful.

My analysis is virtually identical, but I have trouble with the confidence (and perhaps patience) required to wait for bar close. And my anticipation of where we'll be at bar close is not accurate enough.

Yesterday I started to draw anticipatory channels, which seemed to help a lot - I didn't care nearly so much about price squiggles when I could see price moving through my channels as expected.

 

[ivob]

10 pip trade. Eurodollar futures.

Price failed to continue on increasing red after breakout of the lateral.

regards,
Ivo

 

[Padawan]

Quote from dkm:

All I was trying to say was that if a pt3 has not yet formed one must be mindful of the possibility that price can move laterally to form the pt3. After pt3 appears, we anticipate that the trend will continue. If price enters a new lateral we should not necessarily expect price to exit the lateral and continue the previous trend. From this point of view, the lateral before the pt3 is "continuation" (of the trend) and a cause to hold whereas the beginning of the next lateral should be considered as "change". This is why context makes a difference to how one should view laterals. Of course, on a bar to bar basis, all bars within a lateral are "continuation" of the lateral, by definition. Apologies for the confusion

Thank you, dkm. thanks also for the perceived points of change.

 

[R/R]

Quote from romanus:

Thank you, Spydertrader. .... I think I would not be speaking for myself only if I said that I am looking forward to more (drills, that is) with great anticipation. Thank you again.

What ever happened with the outcome of the "Holy Grail Drill" from 5/9/08 regarding bars 15:10-:15, 15:40-:45, and 15:50-:55?

"All three signal change. However, all three signal change for a very specific reason. This they also have in common. Figure out the reason behind the signal, and you'll have the keys to success you need."

I've been snookered by the last bar, re: it's commonality with the others.
edit: date was 5/9/08 as corrected

 

[palinuro]

Quote from Mr_Black:

ES today...

I'm curious, what are those numbers above your volume bars?