Iterative Refinement

Quote from Spydertrader:

You should now have the ability to do the same thing beginning at 13:30 [close of] ES Bar (all times eastern, BTW). Based on your current skill set, only one Bar should give you a problem between then and now.

Bonus Question: Where does the answer reside for that one bar? YM

After an FTT on 1330 [close of] price travels lower on decreased red volume as expected.
1340 [close of] goes lower on decreasing red, telling me to anticipate change.
1345 [close of] the price went higher completing the anticipated change and came back from the high to close within the previous bar range indicating lateral movement.
So far no clear expression of dominant red.
1345 [close of] is also IBGS signaling change and since it closed within the previous bar range I can look at YM. 1344 [close of] YM bar is red on increasing red volume showing clear pt3 channel down. Since YM leads I can expect ES to form down channel as well.
1350 [close of] is a lateral movement closing within the previous bar range and giving permission to check on YM's progress. 1350 [close of] YM bar is black on increasing volume, however it closes within the previous bar, moving laterally and indicating continuation of whatever YM was doing before - going down in a pt3 down channel
Continuation on both ES and YM so far.
1355 [close of] goes lower on increasing red volume and we have a pt3 down.
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

Find the one bar, and see if you give the same answer.

- Spydertrader

If not the bar Romanus mentioned then I think the 1410 bar. That one would've been tricky. But volume levels before, during and after that bar along with the YM, and channel steepness all provide info. If I had to choose one tool it would be YM.
 
ES 20080519 perceived points of change. All actions are bar close.

a. L resumption of long trend after decr red
b. S HH dec blk
c. L rtl bo decr vol, fan rtl
d. S k vol and ibgs ym
e. L FBP fbo
f. S FTP fbo inc blk
g. L FBP fbo inc red
h. S HH dec blk
i. L FBP bo inc blk
j. S ibgs, HH dec blk
k. L lat fbo inc red
m. S lat fbo inc blk
n. L lat / FBP fbo
p. S ibgs, pt3
q. L inc red fbo inside lat
r. S ibgs, fbo FTP
s. L LL dec red
16:05 exit HH dec blk
 

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I was short on the RTL on bar 69. Price then moved higher and stopped me out at 31.75 based on my risk of the high of bar 67. I was then flat. Are there any forest level signals leading up to bar 73 to get short on bar 72?
 

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