Iterative Refinement

Quote from R/R:

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1914343>
I am having a difficult time seeing a reason to reverse from long at this instant (13:50 = the end of the 13:45 ES and 13:48 YM bars).

Agreed - one does not expect increasing volume in a pennant but is that a reason to reverse here at this moment?
The ES is starting to BO the RTL of the accelerated short channel. The Previous bar BO the RTL of the long channel on decreasing red volume which became an FTT. WMCN if long is black.
edit: had trouble inserting chart, then forgot to comment that the YM (un-annotated playback charts) also made an FTT, Sym pennant BO and RTL BO.

Thank you R/R for bringing this up. This bit of discussion has me really shaken. I have read the entire futures thread a several times as well as this thread.

Over and over, the one consistant refrain has been: "the one thing you don't want to see is increasing volume going against your position". What you post R/R is exactly what I have come to understand as what we wish to see for a LONG.

I appreciate that context is king. Unfortunately, there appear to be a virtually endless number of distinct contexts and I am unable to determine how to proceed. Context is very easy to see after the fact. Before hand, one could easily have scene this situation as LONG being the right side of the market.

Edit: I do see that the pt3 down just formed and no flaw or VE yet existed. I understand that means hold. I do not intend for my post to indicate an argumentative mode, more like I thought I was starting to really get this and now finding the rug pulled out sort of thing.
 
Short Quiz: Define the Price - Volume Relationship in 20 words or less

Since many people still find themselves confused with respect to the recent discussion, the above short quiz should shed some light on the areas still needing focus.
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

Short Quiz: Define the Price - Volume Relationship in 20 words or less

Since many people still find themselves confused with respect to the recent discussion, the above short quiz should shed some light on the areas still needing focus.

My answer:

Price movement on increasing volume indicates the direction of price will continue. Decreasing volume indicates price direction will change.
 
Hi,

I am aware of the diffences in context but when we have an inside bar in the other direction than the previous bar, on much higher volume (+closing almost at the top) I cannot imagine myself taking a short at the close of that bar.

Now the next bar goes one tick higher and immediately goes down. I can imagine going short right right there. After all we had a BO and we expect a point 3 down (the context). That's a signal of change, obviously the increasing volume was not enough.

regards,
Ivo



Quote from Spydertrader:

Maybe those of you don't 'see' why Guavaman did what he did should spend some time reviewing both The ES and The YM during the periods in question, as well as, any subtle differences which exist during the two time periods.

- Spydertrader
 
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