Iterative Refinement

[Specterx]

Quote from palinuro:

Hi,

The postmarket discussion always happens to late for me, but here's my ES chart and Log for yesterday AM.

I had a couple of specific questions (in the "YM" column), but appreciate any feedback. I seem to be stuck in repetition of the same uncertainties and mistakes, and think I need help to move beyond.

Thanks

-palinuro

Thanks for posting the log, I really enjoy seeing what people are looking at from bar to bar. Hope to see more

 

[LittleMac]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Probably, because I answered your question in a previous post.

Listen, you obviously feel that a secret society exists where the goal is to make life difficult for those attempting to learn these methods. Nothing could be further from the truth. I spend a great deal of time, energy and effort responding to requests for information - as have numerous other contributors to these threads.

Nobody has an agenda for denegrating the beginner or laying the smack down on the new guy. Such thinking represents a failure to 'see' the facts and history of these discussions.

Why not simply review your own posting history, and see, if you don't repeat the same questions numerous times - even after receiving valid, true and accurate advice. I'll bet you'll notice a change in responses to you at about the six month of repeating the same questions over and over again.

In such an environment people begin to 'see' a pattern in such behavior, and historically, people have witnessed the exact same behavior from people who simply didn't bother doing the work required.

Fair or not, this is how things work, and this, is where we now find ourselves.

So, choose whichever logical path best suits your needs, but take a moment to think about your current world view before you head off towards the point of no return. Perhaps, this all results from a misunderstanding on the part of many - including myself - or perhaps, things really are as they seem. Whatever the real answer, at least now, people have expresssed their opinions, as well as, the facts which formed those views.

All that remains is a simple determination of - continuation or change.

- Spydertrader

Spyder,

That is a great answer. I accept that. It doesnt seem condescending in anyway or like I'm being brushed off. Its a valid response. You're right I have missed things and need to review and I will absolutely continue to do so. I make mistakes all the time. But I am in no way out to get this method. I have put countless hours into it and have a great yearning to succeed. Secret society was a metaphor for people who are less knowledgeable in the system being sort of passed over. It seems as though when questions, frustration, and uneasiness arise it is taken as mutiny against you or Jack or whoever. Then a bunch of the more experienced traders begin sifting through posts and chiming in to protect their leader. I have no problems with you. I respect what you do and how you volunteer your time. I believe in this system. I don't come on here with vitriol and ask anyone for proof, profit or blotters. I'm on the Hershey side here. Was just pointing out that it has grown somewhat unwelcoming in the recent past and I'm glad its out there too.

Tomorrow Ill be back out there again. Im long GRRF and JASO overnight and will continue to monitor them throughout the next few days. That wont change.

Thanks for clearing it up.

 

[bi9foot]

Quote from kat007:



Would you elaborate on why a formation FBO (FBO=Failed Break Out?) provide a signal for change? I thought Failed Break Out means "continue". I understand the "FTT" part but not the "formation FBO" - Please forgive if my question is too basic.

A failure to breakout is always a change signal ( your trading resolution determines if you will take action though).

In a channel a FBO happens at the RTL after a FTT. If one had traded the FTT, one is holding a position in the non-dominant direction of the channel. If price fails to break out of the channel then that position has to be reversed to get back in the dominant direction - a change signal.

Similarly if price attempts to exit a formation and fails what does that tell you? Doesn't that mean price is not ready to continue in the direction of the attempted BO?

 

[kat007]

Specterx,

Thanks very much for taking your time to give me such a "high level" analysis - I went back and tried to follow your logic and had troubles with the CO channel part!!!! I don't think I have an adequate understanding of how the CO channels work yet - I'm still very "disoriented" with the first several bars - don't even know what to think! Not until a channel developed then I can somewhat follow.

Good night all - as it's almost 2:00 am here.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from kat007:

Would you elaborate on why a formation FBO (FBO=Failed Break Out?) provide a signal for change?

When the market signals a Pennant (or Lateral) Formation has developed, we expect to 'see' Price Break Out on increasing Volume. We also expect to 'see' Price remain (or 'close') outside the formation. When Price breaks out of the formation, but returns to the formation, we have a formation FBO (Failed Break Out). We view such activity as a change in market sentiment (from long to short or short to long).

As such, a Formation FBO provides an easy to 'see' signal for change.

Quote from kat007:

I'd like to post my first ES chart - Most of it was done in the evening and with your advice in mind - My concentration was solely on channels to match Gaussians. I appreciate if you can comment on it.

Your chart looks very nice. I only note one missed channel (See Attached). Keep up the great work.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1912293>

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from LittleMac:

Thanks for clearing it up.

And just like that, the market provided a signal for change - ending one trend and beginning another.

Good Trading to you.

- Spydertrader

 

[Specterx]

Quote from kat007:

Specterx,

Thanks very much for taking your time to give me such a "high level" analysis - I went back and tried to follow your logic and had troubles with the CO channel part!!!! I don't think I have an adequate understanding of how the CO channels work yet - I'm still very "disoriented" with the first several bars - don't even know what to think! Not until a channel developed then I can somewhat follow.

Good night all - as it's almost 2:00 am here.

It could be that my logic was wrong. The market opens at 6:30 where I live. It's easy to follow the open when you keep hitting snooze for the first hour Going to make an effort to be on time tomorrow, though.

 

[Specterx]

My chart for today. Annotations done in hindsight as I couldn't watch the market.

Maybe this should go in the software thread, but that blue rectangle is what I get when I try to draw text in NT... any suggestions?

 

[sscott]

Quote from Specterx:

My chart for today. Annotations done in hindsight as I couldn't watch the market.

Maybe this should go in the software thread, but that blue rectangle is what I get when I try to draw text in NT... any suggestions?

Just one suggestion from me. I print lots of charts to study when I'm not at home, but your chart would take up so much ink because of the black background that I wouldn't do it. Also it appears to me that the colors of the chart make the chart harder rather that easier to read, just MHO.....

 

[Specterx]

Quote from kat007:

I have a question in one of your earlier posts though:

you said "The formation FBO (which also forms an FTT) provides a near perfect signal for change. Since we had a Short Dominant Channel, prior to, this signal, our binary system has just received a signal to head long. "

Would you elaborate on why a formation FBO (FBO=Failed Break Out?) provide a signal for change? I thought Failed Break Out means "continue". I understand the "FTT" part but not the "formation FBO" - Please forgive if my question is too basic.

I'll take a crack at this. Somebody more knowledgeable feel free to dismantle or confirm it...

During the bar in question on the YM (image available on p.533) price failed to break out downward from the lateral formation. Since the dominant direction before entering the lateral was down (context), the lateral FBO was a signal for change. Imagine if we'd be in an up-channel and the same lateral formation had appeared: the FBO-down of the lateral would then have been a signal for continuation.

If I'd been watching this in real time I probably wouldn't have seen it that way, at my resolution level; I would've seen that the bar was an FTT and a BO of the down channel. Likewise, in an up-channel, that bar would have been an FBO of the RTL and a signal for continuation.