Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Quote from ehorn:
...as my skills improve, to not have to jump fractals to stay on the right side of the market...
Quote from Avi 8:
I believe this is the opposite of what one should do.
Too many negations here. What is the right thing to do? I always thought the sport of fractal jumping was a no-no and
to always stay with 'your' fractal (no matter what) is the right thing to do?
...as my skills improve, to not have to jump fractals to stay on the right side of the market...
Quote from Avi 8:
I believe this is the opposite of what one should do.
Too many negations here. What is the right thing to do? I always thought the sport of fractal jumping was a no-no and
to always stay with 'your' fractal (no matter what) is the right thing to do?
R/R made a good point in asking you about the FT3, earlier. You never have an actual FT3 where your p3 and FTT occur on the same bar - that became impossible once the bar finished inc black. The correct channel that could have been drawn would have been based on Bar 14 as your p3, confirmed by the intra-bar inc red on bar 15. So bar 15 then would have FTT'd that channel and broke the RTL on inc black (as expected) all in one bar.
You are right to recognize that there was a signal for change based on all this and a reversal is definitely an option. However, there were two other contexts that you did not take into consideration: the Lateral Movement we were continuing and the matching (or lack thereof) slopes of the up channel we exited and the current down channel provided by using Bar 14 as a P3. Both of these contexts told you that hold was an acceptable decision.
You must base your decisions on what you see and if you did not see these contexts, then you should feel comfortable with your decision. Going forward, these are contexts you should be on the lookout for and as Spyder and Avi8 have pointed out, in addition to looking for signals for change one should be looking for reasons to hold.
In the end, when you have contexts that can give you the decision to hold or reverse, it all comes down to what you feel more comfortable doing based on the contexts that you see. You run the risk of overtrading and suffering losses by taking the change signal w/ the benefit of catching the FTT at a better price, if it in fact ends up being the FTT. If you hold, you risk being late on the FTT entry and taking less profit, but protect yourself from losses caused by overtrading and are still holding to make more from the current trend, if the better p3 you anticpate moving to materializes.
-A
Quote from Avi 8:
Really?
Better tell Spydertrader to fix his chart he posted earlier.
On my chart, if I try drawing a straight line through the high of bar 9, an FTT, and the high of the next bar 10, the resulting line ends up not being touched by any of the following bars.
In other words on my chart if one draws a straight line through the high of bar 9 and high of bar 12 ( Spydertrader's pt3) the high of bar 10 ends up being higher than the RTL which is not possible
ES