Iterative Refinement

R/R · May 5, 2008

Quote from romanus:

But if bar 15 (FT3 and IBGS and Outside bar) is not a change in sentiment, I am missing something.

please explain why bar 15 could be a pt3 short.

ehorn · May 5, 2008

Perhaps a good topic at lunch would be your trade #3. Would you please tell me why you went short on bar 5 that closed up on inc blk volume? And then held 4 more bars with price moving up 5.5 points?

Thanks Avi 8, I appreciate your review...

Perhaps I am mislead by your often terse posts, but I will give you the benefit. I did have a nice lunch and I will save a more formal debrief for this evening. Does 5.5 Points seem like alot to you? (I didn't notice the price) lol... But since you asked, I did find myself on the wrong side of that trade, for that given fractal, but at the time I saw a backstop at the C.O. forest level RTL (which was not broken or even touched) and if it was, it would have on Strong black volume (does not seem to be the context for the day). So while that fractal moved against me, holding through a retrace or washing is subjective and continuation and change occur on many levels. Though admittadely, if I had reversed immediately rather than hold through the retrace, I would have more cash in the coffers. My debrief will include signals I mis-read on that fractal sooner.

It is good to see how much is learned by posting screen shots.

You should post yours some time...

Going golfing now - Too nice of a day here.

Have a great day folks!

Avi 8 · May 5, 2008

Quote from ehorn:

...I did find myself on the wrong side of that trade, for that given fractal, but at the time I saw a backstop at the C.O. forest level RTL ...

You were jumping fractals. You went from trading INTRA-bar to FOREST level.

This was the point of asking for a debrief. Yes, jumping fractals may provide a pleasing end result, but is this always possible?

romanus · May 5, 2008

Quote from R/R:

please explain why bar 15 could be a pt3 short.

The outside Bar was once increasing red before it became an outside bar and ended increasing black.

Specterx · May 5, 2008

Quote from ehorn:

Nice morning to start the week...

Taking some friends to lunch (and I'm buyin')

Nice trades. Out of interest, how did you 'know' to hold from your short at 1410.25? Would you have exited (/reversed) on an apparent pt3 up?

Edit: I see there was some discussion on this, but the second part of my question stands.

ehorn · May 5, 2008

Quote from Avi 8:

You were jumping fractals. You went from trading INTRA-bar to FOREST level.

This was the point of asking for a debrief. Yes, jumping fractals may provide a pleasing end result, but is this always possible?

Thanks again Avi 8. You are raising some very good points and I will share my opinion on the matter.

"Fractal Jumping"... is a succint way to put it and exactly what I did and I feel your follow-up Q is important to consider. The answer is "No" but within context;

It is my intention, as my skills improve, to not have to jump fractals to stay on the right side of the market, but, at times within a channel, jumping fractals can act as an anti-whipsaw mechanism, as long as a trader is willing to deal with the accompanying drawdown and that he/she understands where the jump occurred and when it is going bad to necessitate a wash/reverse.

Avi 8 · May 5, 2008

Quote from ehorn:

...as my skills improve, to not have to jump fractals to stay on the right side of the market...

I believe this is the opposite of what one should do.

romanus · May 5, 2008

Quote from Atari:

Hey Romanus,

I'm not exactly sure what "reversal" you are trying to avoid, but I'm going to assume you reversed on the sign for change given by bar 13 or 14 and are now saying that you would not have been able to ignore the inc. red intra-bar that gave you another sign for change to get short again. If that is not the case, then please correct my assumption.

Operating strictly using channels and FTT to FTT/FBO/BO, I saw:

FTT of the up channel on bar 9 = change

channel BO on increasing volume on bar 10, is what we expect after an FTT = continuation

it is geometrically impossible to draw a pt3 channel using bars 9 through 14, only a tape (dashed in the attached)

tape is not a channel, and bar 13, an FTT of the tape = change on smaller resolution, but no change on larger fractal

bar 15 is FT3 of the channel (the resolution I am at) = change on my resolution

at that point I saw a valid channel with pt3=FT3

Yes, I missed the part where price walked out of the tape moving laterally to form pt3, but bar 15 is a signal to go long that can only be invalidated later by What Must Come Next Didn't.

bar 16 is channel BO on decreased volume = what must come next (increased black volume) didn't = trend did not change only a channel = change again

http://i276.photobucket.com/albums/kk20/ROMANUS42008/ES06-085_5_20085Min.png

ehorn · May 5, 2008

Quote from Avi 8:

I believe this is the opposite of what one should do.

Again, I struggle with your retorts. Are you saying that a trader should only jump fractals when they are more skilled?

Thanks,

R/R · May 5, 2008

Quote from romanus:

The outside Bar was once increasing red before it became an outside bar and ended increasing black.

We need to use the information given by the bar at it's close. This does not make a valid point 3 short. You also ignore the fact that the next bar puts in a higher high.