Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Quote from tobbe:
Try matching the Gaussians to the Price Peak or Trough instead of the Volume Peak or Trough. This should clear up the majority of your confusion.
- Spydertrader
Quote from callmate:
Again, nicely done. Keep up the great work.
- Spydertrader
Quote from romanus:
Very nice chart. I see that it is possible to change color of the bar to it's true color. How do you do that?
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=97684&perpage=6&pagenumber=100
It's here on page 100 and 101, Chad kindly helped me to set it all up
Many thanks to Pepe!! Some really gifted people around this forum
I've recently discovered the Hershey threads, and I've been going through the futures thread from last year for about two weeks now (I'm in mid-Feb so far 
). I've been adding tools and methods to my kit according to the 'syllabus,' so I'm probably pretty far behind most people here, but I'd like to join the discussion in hopes of (slowly) catching up. I would definitely like to thank Spyder et al for starting these threads, as they exceed the usefulness and value of any other resources on ET (or anything else I've found related to trading) by many, many orders of magnitude.
Today was the first day that I annotated in RT during most of the ES day session. I'm in CA so the market's open from 0630-1300. In general things are much less obvious in real time than in hindsight, but I suppose that'll improve. I wrote down some things that confused me and marked them on the chart with red circles and numbers, corresponding to the following:
1) The volume pattern from 7 (10 EST) to 8 struck me at the time as extremely ambiguous, with alternately decreasing red and blue volume. Towards the end of the formation (and much later than I became confused by the volume) I drew in the lateral CCC lines, so perhaps synchronously decreasing or ambiguous volume is the mark of a CCC? The pattern from 1130-1215 was similarly ambiguous, and I didn't draw in any gaussians.
2) The 0830 breakout caught me by surprise; until it happened I thought it was an FBO. IIRC price stalled on unexceptional volume until the last 30-60 seconds of the bar when buyers came in and pushed the price up; no breakout was evident on the YM until the 0834 bar. On the chart you can see an olive vol-expansion TL crossing the thick yellow TL, which I left in place to mark that I thought price had topped. How should you have determined if an FBO was taking place here without waiting for a pullback - look for a retracement on the YM?
3 & 4) The 0850 and 0910 bars were very interesting to me, because both looked like FTTs for the first 3-4 minutes into the bar, except the 0850 bar broke downward while the 0910 bar resulted in a vol expansion. Both occurred on lower volume. On the 2-min YM, look at the 0852 and 0910 bars: they look almost identical in terms of vol and price patterns, to me the close of either bar looks like a good FTT entry, except price immediately reversed up in one case while we had a decent retracement to FBO in the other. Again, any way to anticipate that this was going to happen?
5) The 0955 bar also took me by surprise. We seemed to have a bo of the olive TL (I left the incorrect bo label on the chart), but then price reversed back into the channel on very low volume. It's obvious once you see the bar close, but again the problem is anticipating this before the price actually moves 2 points against you.
Let's see.. I'm using PRV which I find useful for anticipating volatility, though in general I still find that I'm better off flipping a coin than trying to anticipate price direction. At this point I'm not really seeing the value of the volume gaussians, as it seems like it takes several cycles (30-60min) to get enough information to know whether red or blue is dominant, whether you have decreasing or increasing vol etc. by which time price has already given you much more information. Moreover price TLs have predictive value while vol gaussians don't seem to.
I welcome any comments...
Edit: Also, the pace lines on my PRV chart are the volume deciles (1, 5, 7, 9) based on ES data from 3/13-4/14.
). I've been adding tools and methods to my kit according to the 'syllabus,' so I'm probably pretty far behind most people here, but I'd like to join the discussion in hopes of (slowly) catching up. I would definitely like to thank Spyder et al for starting these threads, as they exceed the usefulness and value of any other resources on ET (or anything else I've found related to trading) by many, many orders of magnitude.Today was the first day that I annotated in RT during most of the ES day session. I'm in CA so the market's open from 0630-1300. In general things are much less obvious in real time than in hindsight, but I suppose that'll improve. I wrote down some things that confused me and marked them on the chart with red circles and numbers, corresponding to the following:
1) The volume pattern from 7 (10 EST) to 8 struck me at the time as extremely ambiguous, with alternately decreasing red and blue volume. Towards the end of the formation (and much later than I became confused by the volume) I drew in the lateral CCC lines, so perhaps synchronously decreasing or ambiguous volume is the mark of a CCC? The pattern from 1130-1215 was similarly ambiguous, and I didn't draw in any gaussians.
2) The 0830 breakout caught me by surprise; until it happened I thought it was an FBO. IIRC price stalled on unexceptional volume until the last 30-60 seconds of the bar when buyers came in and pushed the price up; no breakout was evident on the YM until the 0834 bar. On the chart you can see an olive vol-expansion TL crossing the thick yellow TL, which I left in place to mark that I thought price had topped. How should you have determined if an FBO was taking place here without waiting for a pullback - look for a retracement on the YM?
3 & 4) The 0850 and 0910 bars were very interesting to me, because both looked like FTTs for the first 3-4 minutes into the bar, except the 0850 bar broke downward while the 0910 bar resulted in a vol expansion. Both occurred on lower volume. On the 2-min YM, look at the 0852 and 0910 bars: they look almost identical in terms of vol and price patterns, to me the close of either bar looks like a good FTT entry, except price immediately reversed up in one case while we had a decent retracement to FBO in the other. Again, any way to anticipate that this was going to happen?
5) The 0955 bar also took me by surprise. We seemed to have a bo of the olive TL (I left the incorrect bo label on the chart), but then price reversed back into the channel on very low volume. It's obvious once you see the bar close, but again the problem is anticipating this before the price actually moves 2 points against you.
Let's see.. I'm using PRV which I find useful for anticipating volatility, though in general I still find that I'm better off flipping a coin than trying to anticipate price direction. At this point I'm not really seeing the value of the volume gaussians, as it seems like it takes several cycles (30-60min) to get enough information to know whether red or blue is dominant, whether you have decreasing or increasing vol etc. by which time price has already given you much more information. Moreover price TLs have predictive value while vol gaussians don't seem to.
I welcome any comments...
Edit: Also, the pace lines on my PRV chart are the volume deciles (1, 5, 7, 9) based on ES data from 3/13-4/14.
Many thanks to those who asked and answered questions in this journal over the last few days. I'm still catching up the reading, but the topics and the conversations have been extremely beneficial.
Chart attached. There were a few power outages where I am today. I'm not trading yet, but being without electricity made me wonder how you guys/gals handle power outages, especially if the pace is fast/extreme. Do you simply phone your broker and exit? Sorry if this question was already answered somewhere before or if it's OT.
Chart attached. There were a few power outages where I am today. I'm not trading yet, but being without electricity made me wonder how you guys/gals handle power outages, especially if the pace is fast/extreme. Do you simply phone your broker and exit? Sorry if this question was already answered somewhere before or if it's OT.