Iterative Refinement

[Spydertrader]

Quote from romanus:

Am I correct in assuming that the definition of the forest channel is that it consists of dominant and non-dominant traverses which are pt3 tapes.

No tapes form traverses (think Trees, not Forest). Traverses form Channels (Channels are your Forest).

Quote from romanus:

Because if I apply this logic here I arrive at a nice blue down channel built from pt3 tapes, except I have to treat the outside bar as black bar and that will give me incr. black to confirm the channel. But it’s an outside bar?????????

The outside Bar was once increasing red before it became an outside bar and ended increasing black.

Quote from romanus:

Guidance is needed here please.

I specifically pointed you to the grey down channel at the beginning of the day. You have a Point Two labeled where Price touches no trend line. Let's talk about this section of your chart (where you indicated you would have reversed into what you should have [at the time] only looked at as Point Two to Point Three). Now, why were you reversing here again, and why do you have a channel (Points One two and Three labelled across a minimum of three bars) annotated? You may have subsequently described this area as a 'tape' but it is not labelled (nor annotated) as such. A tape uses two bars for three of the points - differenciated from the 'chubby tape' by Points One and Two on bar One while Point Three falls two bars later.

- Spydertrader

 

[romanus]

Quote from Spydertrader:


I specifically pointed you to the grey down channel at the beginning of the day.

Thank you. Need a moment to digest that.

 

[Gregor_S]

I started to monitor at 11h and missed early up move. This is my work for today.

 

[tobbe]

From meditating over LostTraders and guavamans charts I came to the conclusion that I'm probably 'jumping fractals' at times. Loaded with this new knowledge... for some reason today went wrong right from the start. Didn't really find the pt3 of the up channel that started at bar 9. Then it went all downhill from there too a big mess.

At least I'm learning that I can't even annotate a chart properly .

 

[Jander]

Chart for today

I experimented with more detail on the gaussians, would appreciate any feedback... Thanks

 

[ivob]

I keep on getting killed in periods like after 12:30. FBO's, outside bars followed by outside bars. Changing dominants, etc. etc.

Not being in the market at certain times is the only thing that keeps me from being constistently profitable.

It's not just the volume dropoff. For example around 11:30 there was a big volume dropoff and a very nice short after that.

Then after 12:30 there's the very hard period for me where I gave up all profits and more. I either have to stay out of it or trade it differently.

We also had a volume dropoff there before 13:00. A similar one.

Currently I am not able to recognize the difference between these two situations. Of course everything becomes obvious one hour (and many points) later....

Does anyone have any tips recognizing periods like this quickly?
Is it price staying inside a bar (12:30-12:35) for a long time?? Is it price not being able to break new ground on higher volume? Is it the 50k gaussian (low of the day?) MACD moving near zero?

Or should I just use the downchannel 11:00 pt1 and 11:45 pt3, take profits at the low and not care what happens before RTL? It's a non dom traverse which often has contradictive signals right?

regards,
Ivo

 

[LostTrader]

Quote from Spydertrader:
Assuming today's trading ended at 11:00 AM this morning (Eastern Time), the market provided three crystal clear signals - enter, reverse and exit. Today's quiz: Post the signals, when they occurred, why they occurred, and whether or not you followed them.

My chart...

As you can see, I only acted after the FTT of the initial short channel. Never felt comfortable with the entries on the down channel. After the FTT (Double bottom), BO with rising volume felt safer.

Exit was late however - My rule for now is to exit when the dominant traverse ends. I didn't when I realized that the next bar was an IBGS and it looked like it had good horizontal support, so I waited in case it was just a walk-out. When the horizontal support broke (with rising volume at that), I exited.

I should still follow the rules! And BTW, this is all virtual for now.

 

[LostTrader]

I thought it interesting that the YM respected the IT CO RTL / more than the ES.

 

[The Flaw]

Caught that steep up channel in the YM off of a sym pennant. Unfortunately, didn't react on the tape in the ES.

 

[romanus]

Quote from Spydertrader:

The outside Bar was once increasing red before it became an outside bar and ended increasing black.

I am working through the rest of your post, but one thing is clear to me now.

Using FTT ->FTT, FTT->FBO/BO rules I had no right to reverse long until bar 10 (10:15-10:20), because there was no pt3 down channel until outside bar 8 brought increased red volume into the picture and created pt3 and bar 9 created an FTT of the blue pt3 down channel.

Is this conclusion correct?

EDIT: the rest of the annotations are still work in progress and should be disregarded for now.