Gooch, your charts look good for the ES daily. Thanks for posting them. I was thinking down was the only way to go based on a pt3 down, but am now thinking of the possibility of a less steep up channel as well. First, because price went down on less volume than the big surge up. Second, for fundamental and technical reasons related to stocks. I found the following commentary to be an interesting way to view the context right now, though not the only way. This is an IBD/PV perspective.
"Friday, GE reported bad results. The price broke the [ES right trend line]. Had GE reported average results, this wouldn't have happened and price would have probably went up. So now the question is will everyone accept GE's results and move on (up) or will they dwell on it and move down? I find it strange when one out of 500 stocks can have such a big impact."
"So why do I think it's going up? It's because Friday was on on low volume. In many of my stocks, the volume was at 1/2 or 1/3 of normal volume. That means there wasn't institutional selling. Just people freaking out cause of GE. If it were a heavy distribution day (big volume) I'd be very concerned. But when it goes down on less volume than when it goes up, that's a very good sign."
"Many industry leaders have broken out of bases and are up 10-20 some even 30%. The next wave of industry leaders are just now breaking out (many dropping back under the buy pt on friday). If the market resumes down I can't even imagine what it's going to look like on all those charts where the bases become invalid and they start new ones. Kind of weird. So overall, the industry leaders are going up and if they're the leaders then I expect everyone else to follow. Monday is going to be very key."
The current ES action on the daily bears a resemblance (not perfectly, though) to the period on ES 5 min. chart from around 10:15 to 10:25 EST Friday. We certainly do not predict, but we are flexible to anticipate every possible scenario and then follow along until we're left with only one choice (is Avi8 wearing off on me?).
Drill 1.13 attached.
