Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
WMCN
Discussions of Analysis
Skill improvement drill # 1.12
Today is bar 12 of the 18 bar series of WMCN. The final six bars will begin on Sunday.
Here is the Video link for
WMCN skill improvement # 1.12
http://www.screencast.com/t/NvqQJmIy
Attached below is the ES and YM screenshot.
Discussions of Analysis
Skill improvement drill # 1.12
Today is bar 12 of the 18 bar series of WMCN. The final six bars will begin on Sunday.
Here is the Video link for
WMCN skill improvement # 1.12
http://www.screencast.com/t/NvqQJmIy
Attached below is the ES and YM screenshot.
ES M8 Daily Chart April 11 / 2008
Daily ES bar broke out of FBP on increased volume to the downside.
Price decreased and closed outside of up channel.
Daily ES bar broke out of FBP on increased volume to the downside.
Price decreased and closed outside of up channel.
ES 06-08 04-11-2008
An attempt to annotate Gaussians is EOD as I am not yet fully proficient with the concept.
The area starting with the 15:50-15:55 bar caused an increase in normal consumption of caffeine and nicotine to make sense of increasing black volume in what appears to be a non-dominant traverse of a larger (Lime colored) down channel.
Does anybody have an explanation for this?
An attempt to annotate Gaussians is EOD as I am not yet fully proficient with the concept.
The area starting with the 15:50-15:55 bar caused an increase in normal consumption of caffeine and nicotine to make sense of increasing black volume in what appears to be a non-dominant traverse of a larger (Lime colored) down channel.
Does anybody have an explanation for this?
Perhaps typical end of session short covering? :eek:
Found a reference to this type of phenomena:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1471485#post1471485
Yep - good words to abide by, unless ya just happen to enjoy gunslingin' 
Thank you all for your great help. Question about dominos and timingâ¦
Letâs say one observes a new pt3 (up channel for example). Increasing volume over prior bar on a PRV basis signifies continuation up. The initial dominos one would expect to fall would be 1) a tape breaking to the upside (the tape being from pt2 to pt3), then the high of the prior bar breaking, then a close above the prior bars high and so on.
Along the way, failure to see any one of these elements develop would be NOT seeing WMCN.
If the trader doesnât see, for example, the tape break (merely as an example of one domino), she would say to herself âthe next domino did not fall, so I will exit (or reverse). And then moments later the tape does break.
It seems like there must be some sort of sweet spot in terms of timing ones assessment, or perhaps I have it all screwed up. It seems like this aspect is so subjective. If it is subjective, what process or drill can help. If itâs not subjective, I fear Iâm missing something important.
Letâs say one observes a new pt3 (up channel for example). Increasing volume over prior bar on a PRV basis signifies continuation up. The initial dominos one would expect to fall would be 1) a tape breaking to the upside (the tape being from pt2 to pt3), then the high of the prior bar breaking, then a close above the prior bars high and so on.
Along the way, failure to see any one of these elements develop would be NOT seeing WMCN.
If the trader doesnât see, for example, the tape break (merely as an example of one domino), she would say to herself âthe next domino did not fall, so I will exit (or reverse). And then moments later the tape does break.
It seems like there must be some sort of sweet spot in terms of timing ones assessment, or perhaps I have it all screwed up. It seems like this aspect is so subjective. If it is subjective, what process or drill can help. If itâs not subjective, I fear Iâm missing something important.
I heard Spydertrader saying: "look for reasons to hold", "fewer trades", "hold pt2 to pt3", "FTT to FTT", "big picture", "context", "volume leads", ...
My understanding is that this WMCN / WMnCN process may result in one of these decisions: continuation (WMCN), wait (no signal), change (WMnCN), so it's not always a binary decision.
You can and you should sweep continuously, but go to the finer tools only when more information is needed. At the end of each ES 5 minute bar you have a checkpoint to see if you're on the right side of the market. Don't forget that you ultimately trade your ES 5 minute chart!
My understanding is that this WMCN / WMnCN process may result in one of these decisions: continuation (WMCN), wait (no signal), change (WMnCN), so it's not always a binary decision.
You can and you should sweep continuously, but go to the finer tools only when more information is needed. At the end of each ES 5 minute bar you have a checkpoint to see if you're on the right side of the market. Don't forget that you ultimately trade your ES 5 minute chart!