Iterative Refinement

[ehorn]

Quote from Padawan:

You decided to reverse long and then the subsequent ES bar broke the low of the bar you entered on. I’m trying to clear my mind of bad assumptions about how to handle entries, and maybe others here are, too. Did you decide to hold long because that downward movement occurred on decreasing volume rather than increasing volume? It looked like for a little bit that the PRV showed increasing volume on the ES and YM, but then both shifted to “decelerating” PRV… or is there more to it than that? I know we’re not using the fine tools, so the entries aren’t going to be nearly as precise, but that further down movement would’ve been alarming when maybe it shouldn’t be.

I would say that we are at or near a GO / NO GO period as to whether the tape will prove to be a PT3 or steepen further into a confirmed PT2 on a new dominant channel and, at this point, the price has only moved by a few ticks while the YM held the projected trendline and is now showing lateral movement. It is difficult to be too price sensitive given the nature of the drill. I am just focused on trying to see continuation or change and stay on the right side. Sensitivity levels and tolerance for price movement are very subjective and based on each persons makeup. But each person needs to understand his/her tolerance to prevent or minimize freakout trading One should not trade if they do not know where they are or be willing to respond, if they are wrong. So where are we? We have a tape, and we are looking for 1 of 3 things here:

1) A steeper and/or longer tape (volume does not suggest at this time)
2) A non-dominant move to form a PT3 (possible)
3) A dominant move off of the fanned PT3 (possible)

My MADA says 2 or 3, either of which require me to get on the right side.

cnms2 said it well some time back. Some people enter early and some enter late (both have their pros and cons). I would consider this an early entry (or reversal) and it may prove to be wrong (But I am calling it like I see it ) and we realize we are making calls based on snapshots of a point in time and deciding what the right side of the market is based on our individual skills, tolerance, and MADA.

I will say I am lacking some things which provide me comfort and confidence in my day-to-day. Things like where are we (time wise and log wise)? If I had to guess, I would say late morning or early afternoon in the session (if late morning I would expect a drop-off in volume). Also, what is the y-scale calibration of the YM and ES? My eyes have become calibrated to my display. Also, as R/R pointed out to me earlier tonight, my convention for coloring bars and volume differs from the standard convention being used. Also, PRV at the bar open can be mis-leading (at least on my charting SW) in that you can get spikes at bar open then within seconds they settle down to a more accurate projection level.

P.S It is WAY past my bedtime so I apologize for the run-on

Have a good night all!

 

[Shirker]

I would be extremely grateful if anybody can spare some time, and give my chart of SOHU a once over. Not sure if I have the gaussians to channels right.
Thanks

 

[Padawan]

Quote from Shirker:

I would be extremely grateful if anybody can spare some time, and give my chart of SOHU a once over. Not sure if I have the gaussians to channels right.
Thanks

In need of practice, here's what I see.

Thanks a ton, ehorn.

 

[forty6n2]

I would also appreciate some advice on my channel to gaussians and formations.
TIA

 

[gooch87]

A little different perspective I think.

 

[ehorn]

In light of all the recent (and seemingly seasonal) malicious posts, I would like to take a moment and personally thank all the contributors, particulary Jack and Spyder, who have proven to me that these methodologies are powerful and profitable. Thank you for your endurance toward many unwarranted personal attacks and your ongoing commitment to provide great guidance, wisdom and insight.

You guys ROCK!

 

[8833broc]

EHorn's points are all well taken about the scaling and the time. I would add some more comments to them all centering around your Entry.

Where was your entry ?

1) At the pt1 or pt 3 forest ?
2) At the PT 1 of the Non Dominant tranverse ?
3) At the lateral BO on inc red Volume ? ( My Entry )

Your entry does NOT change the CHANGE/CONTINUATION analysis but would certainly change your comfort level in holding on this bar of drill 1.

I will label these chart points on tonight chart.

 

[Haroki]

Quote from LittleMac:

My bars are never the same color as everyone else. Do you mean on the 4/2 thirty min chart at end of day for STAR?

I agree on the SKX move too considering the decreasing volume is still greater than any three days of volume we've seen in a while as well as the fact that the thirty minute is showing BO's like of the pink channel which you've mentioned.

STAR - the 30 minute from 4/1 predicted the 2nd's demise.

 

[Haroki]

Quote from LittleMac:

Haroki, according to my analysis. I should'nt be holding on to my Long in SFLY much longer either as the last three bars today(30 min) show increased red and the daily seems to show a new steeper down channel forming (light pink). Is Increased red tomorrow morning in your opinion a good indicator to bail on this one or reverse possibly?

Look at the 30 minute again....

Oops,as of the open,it's up!!

 

[ehorn]

Does anyone notice the similarities between the current action on the YM and the drill we have been doing?