Iterative Refinement

Quote from Jander:

I am assuming decreasing volume or an FTT would be the first domino but Im stuck after that.
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Think.

What changes must take place between the point in time between when you know (with 100% certainty) that price shows continuation down and the point in time where you know (with 100% certainty) that you now have (or had in the past - however many bars it takes to recognize it) an FTT. The sequences between then and now represent the 'dominos.'

You have watched these same dominos fall every day, all day, as you watch the charts.

Think.

What have you seen?

What differences exist between the sequences which represent 'right side' of the market compared to those which represent 'wrong side' of the market.

This isn't a quiz. You 'see' the sequences unfold every day.

- Spydertrader
 
I think that your idea of posting ES daily charts is good, as it keeps reminding people not to forget the big picture. Thanks! At this point I'd ask you for the favor of either reducing the width of your in-line pictures (charts) at the default width of the page, or to provide just a link when you think that reducing the size unacceptably reduces their legibility.

I also think that it might be useful to discuss the ES daily chart as you'd discuss an ES 5 minute chart, keeping in mind that there are some non-portable aspects. This way we'd have at least a full day to discuss WMCN. And I thought that your posts will lead to this.

A good example of the usefulness of this idea is e.g. Spydertrader's remark that today was a black volume bar (not a red one as it was on your chart).

On the other hand, your past few days' posts didn't provide a good seed for discussion, and you also seemed to be happy with your assessment of WMCN did or not, which I found to be too vague and at a certain degree counterproductive to learning. So, I thought to instigate a more concrete discussion, considering that some of the tools, hence trading resolutions, are not available for the daily ES trading as they are for the 5 min ES trading.

To me, just to mention the Jokari window application to each day, without going further is not useful. My interpretation of your increasing black volume yesterday was that you reversed (entered) long (EDIT: But when and why?). Today's black (your red) decreasing volume interpretation that "we expect change" was lacking useful information, and your "WMCN didn't" interpretation seemed debatable.

This is why I've highlighted on a snippet of your chart a recent bar sequence that looked pretty similar to that of the last few days.
Quote from TIKITRADER:

I post the daily ...
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Quote from Jander:

...what specifically is a domino and how many of them there are. I am assuming decreasing volume or an FTT would be the first domino...
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Let's think about this for a minute.

Dec vol means what? To 'anticipate' change? OK, now let's think about what 'change' would look like.

What is the absolute first thing that must happen everytime when 'change' comes along?

For example: Price moving up in an uptrend, we already show dec blk vol, so we anticipate change. Now what is the absolute first thing showing change?

It is so ridiculously obvious that one will probably smack their own head and say, "Duuuhhh". I know I did :D
 
Avi 8, you seem to see these things clearly. Why don't you provide the answer too (e.g. in an attachment if you don't want your readers to be tempted to read it before thinking for themselves). Just asking rhetorical questions won't help the majority of your readers.

It seems that recently several posters "learned" from Spydertrader to "ask leading questions". The problem is that Spydertrader evidently knows the correct answers. None of the others posters has the same standing, and in some cases, as Tikitrader just has shown with his "WMCN?" may actually not even have the correct answer (to be fair, he actually didn't claim to have it).

EDIT: It seems that some of us are afraid to show that they make mistakes. There's no shame in making mistakes as we're all still learning, and only by showing the mistakes we make we can be corrected by Spydertrader or others. This applies to rhetorical questions too.
Quote from Avi 8:

Let's think about this for a minute.

Dec vol means what? To 'anticipate' change? OK, now let's think about what 'change' would look like.

What is the absolute first thing that must happen everytime when 'change' comes along?

For example: Price moving up in an uptrend, we already show dec blk vol, so we anticipate change. Now what is the absolute first thing showing change?

It is so ridiculously obvious that one will probably smack their own head and say, "Duuuhhh". I know I did :D
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It has come to my attention that some of the bars labeled as IBGS on my posted chart are in fact mislabeled. In particular the 12:25 and 14:50 bars. One of the qualifications for an IBGS is for the bar to have a minimum of two ticks in the direction of the existing / dominant trend. These bars do not meet that criteria. Additionally, the 14:50 bar also fails to make a new high in addition to not meeting the two tick minimum.

If I have misstated this rule I look forward to a cheerful rebuke and correction :p.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1830941
 
Quote from Avi 8:

Let's think about this for a minute.

Dec vol means what? To 'anticipate' change? OK, now let's think about what 'change' would look like.

What is the absolute first thing that must happen everytime when 'change' comes along?

For example: Price moving up in an uptrend, we already show dec blk vol, so we anticipate change. Now what is the absolute first thing showing change?

It is so ridiculously obvious that one will probably smack their own head and say, "Duuuhhh". I know I did :D
More...

The absolute first thing showing change? Here's my attempt.

Price starts moving in a non-dominant direction from the extreme end of the bar.

If you want a clear indication or "line in the sand" then you could use price moving below the open of the bar as a trigger to reverse. Today's ES bar reminds me of something.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=113310&perpage=6&pagenumber=170

Ang99, your recent post about WMCN was helpful. Great discussion, everybody.
 
Quote from cnms2:

...Why don't you provide the answer too ...
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I do provide answers, but why must I provide them without the opportunity to critically think about the questions? For me the thinking helps the answers 'stick', instead of having to hear or read the answers over and over.
 
Quote from cnms2:

.. At this point I'd ask you for the favor of either reducing the width of your in-line pictures (charts) at the default width of the page...
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??? what do you mean???
WTG, BF, RR, myself, and the gang upgraded our monitors to 24" just for this, now you are asking him to go back?



:-)>
 
Quote from Padawan:

The absolute first thing showing change? Here's my attempt.

Price starts moving in a non-dominant direction from the extreme end of the bar...
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Excellent!

Yes, the first domino is price moving in the opposite direction.

Thought critically, you have Padawan.
 
Have pity for the less successful traders who're just learning now.:)
Quote from Tums:

??? what do you mean???
WTG, BF, RR, myself, and the gang upgraded our monitors to 24" just for this, now you are asking him to go back?



:-)>
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