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Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Quote from cnms2:
What did you expect for today?
Price to go higher on more increasing black volume.
Can't today be a retrace of the new trend (e.g. a retrace of a retrace)?
Since price did head higher, and failed to get more increasing black volume, price also formed an IBGS today,
We expect the trend to change.
For Thursday, we need to see more increasing red volume and price to decrease to confirm our new trend.
If price fails to do so, and makes a lower low on decreasing red volume. . .
We expect the trend to change. You will then have possibly your new up channel.
Edit: This could also happen within one day itself. I had just asked Spyder about this in a recent post.
If I am incorrect on any of this, Please any or everyone jump in and clarify.
I see...
When you say "we expect the trend to change", does it mean you've reversed?
If not when would you do it? The trigger?
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1831284>
When you say "we expect the trend to change", does it mean you've reversed?
If not when would you do it? The trigger?
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1831284>
Quote from TIKITRADER:
What did you expect for today?
Price to go higher on more increasing black volume.
Can't today be a retrace of the new trend (e.g. a retrace of a retrace)?
Since price did head higher, and failed to get more increasing black volume, price also formed an IBGS today,
We expect the trend to change.
For Thursday, we need to see more increasing red volume and price to decrease to confirm our new trend.
If price fails to do so, and makes a lower low on decreasing red volume. . .
We expect the trend to change. You will then have possibly your new up channel.
Edit: This could also happen within one day itself. I had just asked Spyder about this in a recent post.
If I am incorrect on any of this, Please any or everyone jump in and clarify.
Attachments
Quote from cnms2:
I see...
When you say "we expect the trend to change", does it mean you've reversed?
As Spyder will say. . . we watch to see the dominos fall.
We monitor for the sequence of events to take place, and when they fail, we look for change.
If the resolution you are trading on shows signs of change, then you would be looking to reverse (or stay out) as not to be on the wrong side of the market.
I thought you wanted to talk about appling all these to actual trading: here I reverse (and why), here I hold (and why), ... Opinions?
Dominos may fall, resolutions may vary upon skill. What's your take? "We look for change" is too vague for a seed of discussion. Have you reversed today on dailies? If yes, why? If not why? Are you long / short. WMCN if you're right? WMCN if you're wrong? What would trigger your reversal? And so on ...
EDIT: What's your resolution?
Dominos may fall, resolutions may vary upon skill. What's your take? "We look for change" is too vague for a seed of discussion. Have you reversed today on dailies? If yes, why? If not why? Are you long / short. WMCN if you're right? WMCN if you're wrong? What would trigger your reversal? And so on ...
EDIT: What's your resolution?
Quote from TIKITRADER:
As Spyder will say. . . we watch to see the dominos fall.
We monitor for the sequence of events to take place, and when they fail, we look for change.
If the resolution you are trading on shows signs of change, then you would be looking to reverse (or stay out) as not to be on the wrong side of the market.
Quote from cnms2:
I thought you wanted to talk about appling all these to actual trading: here I reverse (and why), here I hold (and why), ... Opinions?
Dominos may fall, resolutions may vary upon skill. What's your take? "We look for change" is too vague for a seed of discussion. Have you reversed today on dailies? If yes, why? If not why? Are you long / short. WMCN if you're right? WMCN if you're wrong? What would trigger your reversal? And so on ...
EDIT: What's your resolution?
If you're long here on the daily then I would think you'd hold as we have decreasing red and I'm looking for a point 3 to form creating a new up channel. WMCN is more decreasing red or increasing black..
Quote from cnms2:
What's your resolution?
I post the daily just to better refine skills on thinking. This has nothing to do with placing trades.
I have never attempted to take on the daily chart as I am now, with the same mindset as if I was looking at a 5 minute chart.
Daily chart is just an extension, to keep practicing skills for myself, as to the thought process necessary to continue learning.
Nothing at all with entries and exits, just continued learning.
After seeing Spyder in NYC, I realized I needed to take two steps back and place myself where I needed to be.
That is reinforcing what I thought I knew well, and found out I needed much more work.
I will continue to post the daily charts with thoughts of continuation and change, even if I make mistakes along the way, I only stand to learn and gain.
Quote from cnms2:
Dominos may fall, resolutions may vary upon skill. What's your take?
In the context of this discussion, I do not believe Tiki intended to define 'resolution' with respect to 'Forest, Tree, Limb, Leave or Bug.' Instead (again, in the context of this discussion), Tiki may have referred to 'resolution' as a qualifier for trading signals for change. In other words, the market may have signaled change, but the trader choses to hold through a perceived retrace from Point Two to Point Three.
With respect to the 'dominos' which must fall, try 'seeing' in your mind's eye what must take place as Price begins to head in one direction (e.g. creates a lower low and proceeds lower still) only to reverse and form an Outside Bar. What sequences must always take place? What action begins every sequence? What characteristics would appear indicating the anticipated 'falling of dominos' had ended, and the market has signaled areturn to the previous dominant direction (down). Once one knows these sequences, and can without hesitation 'see' the dominos as they fall, then one simply has to wait until a sufficient number have fallen in order to mentally 'receive' a signal for change.
How many, and how soon, one 'sees' these dominos falling represents the point in time where the trader, knows they know. 'Knowing you know' represents the point in time where action takes place.
- Spydertrader
Edit: Current Bar represents black Volume.
Quote from Spydertrader:
With respect to the 'dominos' which must fall, try 'seeing' in your mind's eye what must take place as Price begins to head in one direction (e.g. creates a lower low and proceeds lower still) only to reverse and form an Outside Bar. What sequences must always take place? What action begins every sequence? What characteristics would appear indicating the anticipated 'falling of dominos' had ended, and the market has signaled areturn to the previous dominant direction (down). Once one knows these sequences, and can without hesitation 'see' the dominos as they fall, then one simply has to wait until a sufficient number have fallen in order to mentally 'receive' a signal for change.
Have you posted an example of this somewhere in the past? I am a bit unclear as to what specifically is a domino and how many of them there are. I am assuming decreasing volume or an FTT would be the first domino but Im stuck after that. Apologies if this has been answered before...