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Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Can anyone tell me. Is todays sym pennant that formed in ANW a confirmation of a point 3 in a new down channel. Or should I have held through and expected continuation and incr black. I know someone will say or think wait for the volume to tell you but what should I have assumed after todays volume bar? Continuation? or Change?
Not very clear how this influenced your decision at the end of BAR 5.
You highlighted Bar 6 in your snippet.
I understand that price has yet to exit to DOWN channel but at the end of Bar 5, when you determined it wasnt a new Point 3 "UP" , what lead you to believe that on the next bar (or 2 or 3) price could not BO on +PRV???
My original question (on 11-15) was about "fanning out".
The current discussion stems from my comment/inquiry about price having to CLOSE outside of the last retrace bar on +PRV to for a point 3 to be valid.
"We just need to have increasing red volume and for price to have advanced in the dominant direction of the channel" is the obvious right answer.
The only answer I am really seeking is to why Bar 5 on 11-15 was not a new point 3 UP??
Based on your answer on 11-15-07 it was not.
I am simply wondering why it is not since price moved up on +PRV.
You did not say that Bar 5 WAS a Point 3 up BUT the -PRV on Bars 6 and 7 caused me to "fan out" my channel (which is what I did)
My current question is not about "fanning". It is about what constitutes a Point 3 for entries into the market.
Where should one have entered long?
Like I stated above my hypothetical entry was Bar 5 and then I continued to hold based on the -PRV and the lateral price movement.
Is the entry correct?
Thank you once again for taking the time to answer the questions from those of us with skulls thicker than most.
Sorry for beating this dead horse and the apparent confusion.
Context
Again, Tums example had one channel - down. The chart from November had two competing channels - one inside the other. If you do not see a single channel as a different context than two competing channels, I do not know how I can better clarify - other than one does not equal two.
Try looking at it this way: You believe you have a Point Three Up on increasing black Volume, but during the bar formation, Price reverses forming an Outside Bar which closes on its Low. Do you still have a Point Three up? Of course not, the market changed. So too in this example, we think we have a Point Three up, only to 'see' by the Close of the Bar that Price had not finished moving laterally (had not finished moving from Point Two to Point Three). In other words, "What must come next" - doesn't. As such, we expect the trend to change. While the trend does change, we do not receive information from the market indicating we are on the wrong side of the market.
We receive confirmation of this thought process on the next few bars as Price continues to show Lateral Movement. Finally we have an Outside bar which creates the Point Three.
When the market provides a signal, we act and then monitor to make sure "What must come next" - does. When "What must come next" - doesn't - we expect the trend to change. We again begin the process of monitoring to make sure "What must come next if we find ourself on the wrong side of the market" - does. If the market signals neither wrong nor right side of the market, then we wait (hold if having a position; sit and do nothing if we are sidelined). So goes the process of monitoring for dominos 81 times a day, over and over again. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
Lastly, if the above information still fails to provide clarity, then I encourage you to read, once again, the large paragraph in my previous post.
- Spydertrader
I recommend you review the Futures Discussion with respect to Formations at your earliest possible convenience.
- Spydertrader
I should have used the word "variation" instead of "combination".
Each of Avi 8's four Jokari matrix illustrations indicated price volatility acting in harmony with volume expansion/contraction. I attempted to put out for discussion the opposite case of each, which I located below the originals.
These specific chart sequences were a poor backdrop to make my point. At least two bars trending away from the RTL is would have made a much better example, but the first and fourth lower illustrations might have raised some flags.
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