Iterative Refinement

Spydertrader / Jack, I wonder what would be the right way of trading a period
like that of Friday, between 12:30 and 15:30, when using only the ES 5 min and
the YM 2 min. Or, if it should be stayed out, what would be the moment to sideline,
and the moment to get back in. Thanks.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1804160>
 

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Quote from cnms2:

I wonder what would be the right way of trading a period
like that of Friday, between 12:30 and 15:30, when using only the ES 5 min and the YM 2 min.

During periods of High Bar Overlap as exemplified by your attached chart, the finer tools play a more important role allowing the trader to 'carve the turns' more accurately. However, using the ES and the YM in tandem - in order to the trader remains on the right side of the market works the same as it would in periods of low bar overlap. The trader simply expects less profit during high overlap.

The trader has three choices with respect to how to trade this environment.

  • Bring the finer tools into the picture (in this specific example - DOM Walls and Tic Charts)
  • Sideline until high bar overlap ends
  • Follow the signals given by the Coarse Tool Set and paying special attention to Timely and Appropriate Action

Using only the ES and the YM requires the trader to head to the YM immediately when given permission by the ES in order to obtain a signal for change. Which signal to expect depends on context, and as always, when the context changes, the answer to "what must come next?" also changes. As such, one must always know the current context - that means each and every bar.

Of course, having a complete understanding of "what must come next?" (P and V Sequences) along with following the exact permissions provided by the ES in order to go and obtain a 'signal' from the YM helps tremendously. In such a fashion, the trader always stays on the right side of the market.

Staying on the 'right side' of the market is the goal. Achieve that goal often enough, and you'll have all the profits you'll ever need.

- Spydertrader
 
Thanks Spydertrader.

I wonder if you, and maybe others too, would take a stab at it, showing where and why they'd reverse. I haven't traded that period yesterday, but reviewing it looks like I might've lost quite a bit before realizing that I have to sideline. Then, I'd've probably gotten back in late enough to miss some of the final wide swing. Luckily, I've turned on my computer just about 15:15, entered short, then reversed almost immediately long ...
Quote from Spydertrader:

During periods of High Bar Overlap ...

Staying on the 'right side' of the market is the goal. Achieve that goal often enough, and you'll have all the profits you'll ever need.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from cnms2:

Thanks Spydertrader.

I wonder if you, and maybe others too, would take a stab at it, showing where and why they'd reverse. I haven't traded that period yesterday, but reviewing it looks like I might've lost quite a bit before realizing that I have to sideline. Then, I'd've probably gotten back in late enough to miss some of the final wide swing. Luckily, I've turned on my computer just about 15:15, entered short, then reversed almost immediately long ...

I may be taking this a bit off track, But instead of looking at this time period as lateral chop, look at what the lateral context is. What I mean is, are there any clues in laterals that will help you anticipate the eventual breakout. If you can see accumulation/distribution in the lateral it might help to see what the "eventual right side of the market" will be. As for trading it, one might only trade the anticipated breakout side or just bracket it.
 

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Quote from cnms2:

I wonder if you, and maybe others too, would take a stab at it, showing where and why they'd reverse.

How about this? We walk through each bar on the ES Chart you posted above - beginning with the third bar of your screen shot. Only instead of me telling you how to trade it, we walk through so you can 'see' the logic for yourself and know what decisions to make and when to make them.

We can do this in the ET chatroom to make it faster (nobody is in there on the weekends), or maybe over Skype and GotoMeeting.com type of shared view of a chart.

However, a properly annotated chart remains the first requirement of a trader looking to 'see' the signals provided by the market. As such, we have a few things missing from the ES chart posted above. Add them to the ES, so we might have a better opportunity to 'know' the context at all times. Highlight (in any fashion you desire) all Pennants and Lateral Formations.

- Spydertrader
 
cnms2
Here is a chart with the thought process that took place at this moment. This was a live thought process from yesterday. I was with others at the time when this was discussed at the moment.
A lot of good thinking was taking place.
 

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Quote from Spydertrader:


We can do this in the ET chatroom to make it faster (nobody is in there on the weekends), or maybe over Skype and GotoMeeting.com type of shared view of a chart.

- Spydertrader

If possible I would like to join. Not to look for answers but to compare my actions and see where I might be wrong.
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

when to make them.

We can do this in the ET chatroom to make it faster (nobody is in there on the weekends), or maybe over Skype and GotoMeeting.com type of shared view of a chart.
- Spydertrader

Good idea Spyder, I would like to join too. :)
 
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