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Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
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ES Daily chart February 20/2008
Following up on the earlier discussion of the CHANGE point on today's 1040 bar, I wonder if this would be the point you'd press the trigger (practically the opening of the 1045 bar) ...
Sorry for the hard to read picture. For this intra-bar analysis purposes (only) I superimposed a 0.2 min ES chart over its 5 min, and a 0.2 min YM chart over its 2 min.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1800575>
Sorry for the hard to read picture. For this intra-bar analysis purposes (only) I superimposed a 0.2 min ES chart over its 5 min, and a 0.2 min YM chart over its 2 min.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1800575>
Quote from Spydertrader:
As such, let's look at this situation from the standpoint of 'Falling Dominos' and what must come next.
At some Point, as the Bar in question forms, the trader realizes (through PRV calculation) that the bar must close showing decreasing Volume. At this point in time, the trader begins to anticipate change (as indicated by the Jokari Window). Since (by previous rule set), the ES failed to 'give permission' to the trader to go and 'look' at the YM, what must come next if Price is headed higher and the market signals change? Price must head lower! One of the first indications of such an event is watching as Price heads below its open (again, without the use of finer tools).
Since this sequence begins to materialize Intra-bar, when Price begins to head lower, the trader expects to 'see' the bar also close lower - confirming an Intra-bar Gaussian Shift. As the next bar opens, the trader continues to monitor in an effort to insure the dominos keep falling. What must the trader 'see' on the YM? What must the trader see on the ES? Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
With respect to APA, I do not employ its use ever. It simply is not necessary. If a trader knows what must come next in order to remain on the right side of the market, while at the same time, knowing what must come next for the market to indicate the trader is on the wrong side of the market, then the trader requires no additional techniques to succeed.
As to how to know (in this specific example) if the market 'changed its mind' and no longer planned to signal change at close of bar, we all know the very simple answer. Volume would have had to move to increasing Volume with price headed higher (and a close above the open). When the next bar opens, Price heading higher on increasing black PRV would indicate the market had chosen to return to the previous dominant direction, rather than, continuing to show decreasing red as it did.
As you can see, APA, has no purpose in a paradigm where one knows the sequences of how Price can move. One simply has to wait for the market to confirm or invalidate the current course of action.
I hope you found the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
Quote from Spydertrader:
As such, let's look at this situation from the standpoint of 'Falling Dominos' and what must come next.
At some Point, as the Bar in question forms, the trader realizes (through PRV calculation) that the bar must close showing decreasing Volume. At this point in time, the trader begins to anticipate change (as indicated by the Jokari Window). Since (by previous rule set), the ES failed to 'give permission' to the trader to go and 'look' at the YM, what must come next if Price is headed higher and the market signals change? Price must head lower! One of the first indications of such an event is watching as Price heads below its open (again, without the use of finer tools).
Since this sequence begins to materialize Intra-bar, when Price begins to head lower, the trader expects to 'see' the bar also close lower - confirming an Intra-bar Gaussian Shift. As the next bar opens, the trader continues to monitor in an effort to insure the dominos keep falling. What must the trader 'see' on the YM? What must the trader see on the ES? Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
With respect to APA, I do not employ its use ever. It simply is not necessary. If a trader knows what must come next in order to remain on the right side of the market, while at the same time, knowing what must come next for the market to indicate the trader is on the wrong side of the market, then the trader requires no additional techniques to succeed.
As to how to know (in this specific example) if the market 'changed its mind' and no longer planned to signal change at close of bar, we all know the very simple answer. Volume would have had to move to increasing Volume with price headed higher (and a close above the open). When the next bar opens, Price heading higher on increasing black PRV would indicate the market had chosen to return to the previous dominant direction, rather than, continuing to show decreasing red as it did.
As you can see, APA, has no purpose in a paradigm where one knows the sequences of how Price can move. One simply has to wait for the market to confirm or invalidate the current course of action.
I hope you found the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
Oh man, seemingly little stuff like this helps a lot. It's like a light came on and just generated a thousand questions. For example, is what you described in that post an example of bar logic that can be used in other markets like Fx, and is there additional bar logic that might be beneficial? And speaking of Fx, do you suggest any particular ways one can synthetically create volume? I've heard of two main ways and they're 1) plotting the bar ranges in histogram form and 2) using futures volume as a proxy.
Also, let's say you're using two fractals of the same instrument (i.e. not using a separate leading instrument for change), are the rules for going down to the faster fractal the same as those we use for ES and YM (i.e. just like the permission rules to look at the YM -- ltl, rtl, VE, formations, etc.)? I hope that makes sense.
Any help you can offer on any of these questions is greatly appreciated, though they're kind of forward looking. It will take time for some of us get around to other instruments. ES and YM should be a walk in the park first. I've been reading up on the equities methodology and should return to posting ES/YM charts in the not too distant future. Thanks a bunch.
On the chart, The Price Formation appears to be closer to a Sym Pennant, but i find it difficult to determine from the chart posted. Assuming the formation is a Pennant, I wanted to highlight how Price broke the Pennant on increasing Volume.
- Spydertrader
In between the 10:44 and 10:45 (based on the YM Chart).
- Spydertrader
Any market on Any time frame - provided sufficient liquidity exists.
Maybe, you've read that somewhere before?
As to the rest of your questions, your journey will be more important than the desitination.
- Spydertrader