Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
When you say YM off peak, do you mean declining from the previous bar, or it has peaked in this bar and now declining ?? Or are you referring to the gaussian peak (or trough ?) ???
Thanks for the info.
My current Final Universe:
ABR ACF ANW ARII AVR BCSI BEBE BHS BIDZ BKI BONT BPHX CALM CHDX CLUB CMED CONN CORS CREE CTDC DBTK DRYS DSX EGLE EMKR EXM FED FMCN FSTR GAIA GBE GCA GES GIGM GKK GLNG GMKT GRA GRRF GSAT GSOL HMIN ICOC IDCC IMMR JADE JASO JCG JRJC KMGB LAZ LKQX LPHI LQDT MALL MFLX MGPI MTEX MTH NCMI NCTY NDN OCN POZN QMAR RVBD RWT SEED SIGM SKX SNCR SNDA SNHY SOHU SOLF SSRX STAR SXE TASR TBSI TGIC THO TLEO TRCR TSL VCGH VDSI VSE VSR VVTV XING YTEC ZUMZ
I'm using QCharts for the process.
ABR ACF ANW ARII AVR BCSI BEBE BHS BIDZ BKI BONT BPHX CALM CHDX CLUB CMED CONN CORS CREE CTDC DBTK DRYS DSX EGLE EMKR EXM FED FMCN FSTR GAIA GBE GCA GES GIGM GKK GLNG GMKT GRA GRRF GSAT GSOL HMIN ICOC IDCC IMMR JADE JASO JCG JRJC KMGB LAZ LKQX LPHI LQDT MALL MFLX MGPI MTEX MTH NCMI NCTY NDN OCN POZN QMAR RVBD RWT SEED SIGM SKX SNCR SNDA SNHY SOHU SOLF SSRX STAR SXE TASR TBSI TGIC THO TLEO TRCR TSL VCGH VDSI VSE VSR VVTV XING YTEC ZUMZ
I'm using QCharts for the process.
My answered assumed a trader only had the ability to use ES and YM - Price and Volume. Dom Walls, STR-SQU, Tic Charts and Time & Sales don't yet have a place in the trader arsenal.As such, let's look at this situation from the standpoint of 'Falling Dominos' and what must come next.
At some Point, as the Bar in question forms, the trader realizes (through PRV calculation) that the bar must close showing decreasing Volume. At this point in time, the trader begins to anticipate change (as indicated by the Jokari Window). Since (by previous rule set), the ES failed to 'give permission' to the trader to go and 'look' at the YM, what must come next if Price is headed higher and the market signals change? Price must head lower! One of the first indications of such an event is watching as Price heads below its open (again, without the use of finer tools).
Since this sequence begins to materialize Intra-bar, when Price begins to head lower, the trader expects to 'see' the bar also close lower - confirming an Intra-bar Gaussian Shift. As the next bar opens, the trader continues to monitor in an effort to insure the dominos keep falling. What must the trader 'see' on the YM? What must the trader see on the ES? Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
With respect to APA, I do not employ its use ever. It simply is not necessary. If a trader knows what must come next in order to remain on the right side of the market, while at the same time, knowing what must come next for the market to indicate the trader is on the wrong side of the market, then the trader requires no additional techniques to succeed.
As to how to know (in this specific example) if the market 'changed its mind' and no longer planned to signal change at close of bar, we all know the very simple answer. Volume would have had to move to increasing Volume with price headed higher (and a close above the open). When the next bar opens, Price heading higher on increasing black PRV would indicate the market had chosen to return to the previous dominant direction, rather than, continuing to show decreasing red as it did.
As you can see, APA, has no purpose in a paradigm where one knows the sequences of how Price can move. One simply has to wait for the market to confirm or invalidate the current course of action.
I hope you found the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
niceMy current most consistently losing trades are when I have a pennant forming on decreasing volume. I patiently exit, and wait for price to break out of the pennant on increasing volume. So it breaks out, PRV is up, I enter long, then the bar immediately heads south in the other direction. So I exit again within the pennant, wait for the bar to move outside the pennant, it moves down, PRV takes another boost, so I enter short , then it does another 180 turn and I'm again on the wrong side. It's killin' me.
I'm always getting in long on the fake out of PRV, in what ends up in being 4-point, 4-bar lateral movement. I'm wondering what looks like a sudden boost in PRV is actually people taking profits, getting out of trades and then others perhaps hitting a stop loss, boosting it more ??
Any words of wisdom in how this is handled would be greatly appreciated.
There has not been a set of bars to this day that could contain the offending pennant.
It has broken free of them all
It has broken free of them all
1. Stop exiting when you have a Pennant. I do not know how or why you picked up such a habit, but it needs to end immediately.
2. Review the recently described 'ET Chat Room Log' - specifically where Pennants and Laterals are discussed.
- Spydertrader