Iterative Refinement

Quote from R/R:

Two questions as of the close of the last bar in your snip:
1)what is the current mode?
2)where must you go in your sweep in the next instant and why?
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As of the close of the last bar:

1) The current mode would be short, though I would have taken my exit when the IF2 triggered.

2) I would look at the YM in order to see if it shows increasing volume. If it does, I would expect the downtrend to continue. If it doesn't, I would expect a lateral.

Next, I would look at the DOM to see if there are any walls present to shape a price range.
 
I would like to say “Thank You” to Spydertrader for his Saturday’s presentation.
And I am agree with opinions posted other people who attend.
Many grey areas are now cleared and simplified for me. It’s definitely “Trading Made Easy” :).

Stepan

:)
 
Quote from FerdinandAlx:

As of the close of the last bar:

1) The current mode would be short, though I would have taken my exit when the IF2 triggered.

2) I would look at the YM in order to see if it shows increasing volume. If it does, I would expect the downtrend to continue. If it doesn't, I would expect a lateral.

Next, I would look at the DOM to see if there are any walls present to shape a price range.
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ok, this is what I was thinking, while just keeping with ES, YM and volume for tools. I am assuming a medium resolution level.

1) The context is a down trending channel so for price to continue lower we must have increasing dominant (red) volume as price makes lower lows to anticipate continuation. We do not see this, rather we have decreasing red volume with a lower low therefore the mode is change. I personally would reverse on this basis, ie: IF1 (IF2 is a long way away :) ) and then go to 2) below.

2) Yes we would go to the YM at the start of the next bar. Since the close of the current (OS) bar is a few ticks above the low, the next bar must start as a forming pennant. Also, an OSB will often initiate a pennant or lateral formation. With an ES pennant forming we must now go monitor the YM to determine the mode.

If you like you could add some YM bars forming from here to your chart and get other's MADA from that point.
 
I think it will be useful for all of us to do MADA using ES and YM charts each day. It would help to clear some of the grey areas.
Give it a try, now is the time to seek help if not sure :D

change.png
 
Quote from Tums:

I don't have advice either, but I do have some questions.
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Sorry it has taken me so long to respond, I have been consumed with re-reading and with chart replays.

Thank you for taking the time to post those questions. The questions themselves make for good advice when I review them. In a nutshell, it appears my big problem was looking at the wrong thing at the wrong time.

Spyder was gracious enough to spend his time (late at night I might add) to help me "see" the sequence of where focus should be placed. I admit, everything I heard was the same stuff written on these pages it just never dawned on me. I did not attend the expo, but after reading the comments from there I feel very fortunate to have heard some of the very same things. Thank you again Spyder, it is a rare person who will spend their time to assist people as you have.

I am going to take a few days (weeks, whatever) to just monitor in an attempt to get back on the path. No sim buttons, just watching for change...at all levels regardless of resolution.

It is my plan to post some chart sequences with my MADA, hopefully I will be able to demonstrate what I heard.
 
This is a sequence of 5 images from a few minutes ago. I am going to break down what I was thinking at the time of each image.

Please excuse the delayed annotations, my finger is on the screenshot button to catch the points I made decisions.

1. Context coming into this: ES just broke a pennant to begin a retrace. YM broke a ragged lateral, failed back inside, should be seeing more increasing green here to hold long. Current bars: ES forming a pennant, eyes on the YM price. YM also in a pennant. Waiting.

Question for this image; Which takes precedence, the need for more increasing green on YM or the fact that it is forming a pennant?

2. As YM breaks pennant, looking to YM PRV. Slight increase. Change. Mindful of lateral on YM. Expecting more inc vol on YM and break on ES on inc vol.

3. ES breaks pennant but falls back inside, eyes back on YM. YM should be getting more inc vol, it is not, but is forming a pennant. Also YM did not break lateral formed by 9:18 bar. My change did not follow through. Reverse.

Question on image 3: Same a first question, which should I be looking at, forming pennant on YM, or that I did not get the anticipated more inc vol?

4. Couple seconds late on this shot. YM broke its forming pennant, and the 9:18 lateral. ES back out of pennant. Reverse short. ES still in possible lateral, watching the YM. Looking for inc red to confirm a pt3 down.

5. Progress is being made. As ES breaks possible lateral on inc red, just watching ES price as it moves across the channel. Showing inc vol as anticipated.
 

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Littemac,

Here is my FMCN chart for comparison. I'm looking at FMCN as a long according to my gaussians.

It looks to me like we had a FBO of the purple down channel on thurs. followed by a retrace of the dominant blue upchannel on Friday. Today's price movement an PRV levels anticipating increased black seems to confirm the blue upchannel is still dominant and we have BO of the purple downchannel.

-A
 

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