Iterative Refinement

[Haroki]

Quote from LittleMac:

Thanks very much for your sinsight. Helped a lot.

To be more verbally descriptive with the trouble I have with the progression of my channels and guassians thru time....

Heres a great example with CMED. After the FTT and B2B BO of the purple channel I felt good about a solid start to the new up channel and felt I could draw my Guassians and channel with a good point of origin. Originally I had the Green channel. Then I drew in the light blue channel using the point 3 of my old green channel as my new point 1. At this point and like many other charts before this one my Guassians began to get foggy and I start inventing until we get to the point of the last three bars which break my light blue RTL and now my Guassians and channels hold no water and look sloppy. So I feel like I'm back to square one looking for a clear R2R to get me to a good point of origin again. It happens time and time again with me and I feel like its coming every time.

I think you did the same thing as with SNHY. Price peak is on the 14th, but your b2R doesn't match. I think you drew in the change 2 days earlier.

Note that I drew in the gaus in 2 fractals. Thicker lines are longer term. Yellow gaus line signifies a symmetrical pennant. Price exited the pennant, but NOT on inc volume, so at this point I'd be suspicious of the BO.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ivob:

A question for Spyder. You wrote you don't trade each non dominant traverse. What about non dominant traverses after a volatility extension?

Yes. I trade those almost without fail.

- Spydertrader

 

[vorzo]

Quote from ericta:

But price overextend after all is a continuation/confirmation, would you agree?

Sorry for the delay.
This is how I see it: yes, price extension in itself means continuation. But, does PACE confirm such a wide range bar? If pace is lower than indicated by Mak's table for that lo-hi range, it raises a red flag for me. It strong pace comes in, it will take the price further, if not it will invariably fall back.
How I act on a perceived overextended bar depends on context. For instance, Friday was option expiration day (see this <a href="http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/xcal/xcal.jsp">link</a>), when the market is known to back and fill a lot, so I was in "early exit" mode. In addition, the trades where I used overextended price as one of the criteria were long, after a 40-pt drop and market at fresh lows, so one more reason for me to be in "early exit" mode that day.

Regards,
Vorzo

 

[ericta]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Yes. I trade those almost without fail.

- Spydertrader

Spyder,

I will be very "skidish" after I enter on VE. Is there a drill for this kind of behavior? hold as long as volume is decreasing?

Thank you.

 

[ericta]

Quote from vorzo:

Sorry for the delay.
This is how I see it: yes, price extension in itself means continuation. But, does PACE confirm such a wide range bar? If pace is lower than indicated by Mak's table for that lo-hi range, it raises a red flag for me....

Regards,
Vorzo

Thank you Vorzo.

Ericta

 

[ljyoung]

Quote from vorzo:

Sorry for the delay.
This is how I see it: yes, price extension in itself means continuation. But, does PACE confirm such a wide range bar? If pace is lower than indicated by Mak's table for that lo-hi range, it raises a red flag for me. It strong pace comes in, it will take the price further, if not it will invariably fall back.
How I act on a perceived overextended bar depends on context. For instance, Friday was option expiration day (see this <a href="http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/xcal/xcal.jsp">link</a>), when the market is known to back and fill a lot, so I was in "early exit" mode. In addition, the trades where I used overextended price as one of the criteria were long, after a 40-pt drop and market at fresh lows, so one more reason for me to be in "early exit" mode that day.

Regards,
Vorzo

Vorzo,

A similar situation occurs, IMO, when you have a very narrow range bar [low money velocity] with an "inappropriately " high volume. Both cases should alert one to anticipate change.

lj

 

[ljyoung]

STR-SQU update. For a quick fix on the "functional" offset (functional = indexarb +/- smart$) look for a YM 2pair at any time of the day. If you are "2pairing", the offset should be at the "zero" of the 2pair. My best guess so far and as always, SAW.

lj

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFZHWGUz-t8 - Rock on Keith.

 

[CDNPatriot]

Question on backfilling. When running the hershey script how far back should I backfill? Should it be on five minute intervals or shorter?

 

[bi9foot]

Quote from CDNPatriot:

Question on backfilling. When running the hershey script how far back should I backfill? Should it be on five minute intervals or shorter?

Backfill on Daily Interval. I usually to 500 days, however the rank scan looks for 5 cycles in 6 months (~20 trading days a month) 150 days should do be sufficient.

 

[TIKITRADER]

ES 5 minute so far. Just annotating and getting a feel for this software.Still needs to be setup better, but coming along. Big thanks to Tums and Vorzo for all your feedback.