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Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Quote from Munck:
LittleMac,
1. That depends if the bar closes outside of the LTR. If it dosen't, you have LTR VE. Normally I don't exspand those.
2. Your chart looks fine to me.
So essentially if the current bar closes outside one could either leave it as an FBO and not move the RTL or adjust it slightly. I'm just getting confused cause as I said before Ive read that once a channel is in place meaning points 1,2, and 3 it is set in stone, but I always get these RTL breaks that aren't BO's. They look like either lateral movements outside the RTL or FBO's. I have a hard time figuring out what to do with my RTL in these situations and I feel like it ruins the flow of my chart (progression of channels and guassians) if I dont make the correct decision with regard to the RTL.
Quote from LittleMac:
I'm currently waiting for SNHY to give me an Unusual Volume signal. According to my chart I'm expecting increasing black volume and a BO of the purple down channel today. If Unusual Volume doesnt hit I'm thinking it will be an FBO. 2 questions.
1. Do I widen my purple channel if an FBO occurs?
2. Is my chart correct? Comments welcome.
Don't widen your purple channel if you get an FBO. Never VE your RTL. Draw a new one using Dec 27th-ish as your point 1. Or you can leave it if you wish. I sometimes do when I'm feeling lazy or if the price juuuuuust gets outside the RTL.
I would have drawn the gaus differently. 6 days ago was your peak red, but price bottomed 3 days later. SO I have inc red, dec red.... followed by nothing, even though it's now 2 days of dec black. I'm waiting to see what happens here - inc volume in either direction.
But in the bigger scheme of things you have the right idea if you're being conservative. Waiting for inc black before you buy.
Also note that dec black here is expected as price approaches the RTL. If it's truly going to BO, then inc black is expected.
Didn't buy anything today. I'm still waiting for funds to transfer and the acct I'm using is below 25K so I don't have the cushion for any daytrades and still avoid the PDT rule. But I was watching MALL earlier - showed great price improvement and the volume showed an increase over yesterday's and I was thinking this would be a great buy. Then the price crashed 20%. Now THAT'S an FBO.
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And here's a near picture perfect example of what i was talking about - dec black as price approaches the RTL, with today being inc (slightly) black.
Using more advanced techniques, you could have entered long 2-3 days ago and be up 20% right now. Enter off the FTT 3 days ago.
Using more advanced techniques, you could have entered long 2-3 days ago and be up 20% right now. Enter off the FTT 3 days ago.
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Quote from LittleMac:
So essentially if the current bar closes outside one could either leave it as an FBO and not move the RTL or adjust it slightly. I'm just getting confused cause as I said before Ive read that once a channel is in place meaning points 1,2, and 3 it is set in stone, but I always get these RTL breaks that aren't BO's. They look like either lateral movements outside the RTL or FBO's. I have a hard time figuring out what to do with my RTL in these situations and I feel like it ruins the flow of my chart (progression of channels and guassians) if I dont make the correct decision with regard to the RTL.
You need to have gaussians confirming RTL BO's. A channel is not set in stone, you often see bars not respecting the RTL/LTR. I often see this behaviour in pennants.
Thanks very much for your sinsight. Helped a lot.
To be more verbally descriptive with the trouble I have with the progression of my channels and guassians thru time....
Heres a great example with CMED. After the FTT and B2B BO of the purple channel I felt good about a solid start to the new up channel and felt I could draw my Guassians and channel with a good point of origin. Originally I had the Green channel. Then I drew in the light blue channel using the point 3 of my old green channel as my new point 1. At this point and like many other charts before this one my Guassians began to get foggy and I start inventing until we get to the point of the last three bars which break my light blue RTL and now my Guassians and channels hold no water and look sloppy. So I feel like I'm back to square one looking for a clear R2R to get me to a good point of origin again. It happens time and time again with me and I feel like its coming every time.
To be more verbally descriptive with the trouble I have with the progression of my channels and guassians thru time....
Heres a great example with CMED. After the FTT and B2B BO of the purple channel I felt good about a solid start to the new up channel and felt I could draw my Guassians and channel with a good point of origin. Originally I had the Green channel. Then I drew in the light blue channel using the point 3 of my old green channel as my new point 1. At this point and like many other charts before this one my Guassians began to get foggy and I start inventing until we get to the point of the last three bars which break my light blue RTL and now my Guassians and channels hold no water and look sloppy. So I feel like I'm back to square one looking for a clear R2R to get me to a good point of origin again. It happens time and time again with me and I feel like its coming every time.
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Quote from TraderD72:
My ES chart for today.
Day seemed very choppy to me.
The 1:05pm and 1:10pm bars were fun (lol).
Comments about my annotations are welcome.
For me it was an extreme difficult day.
Very quick FTT's (that normally sometimes I would not even consider an FTT). Moves that ended quickly.
Strange sudden bars that confused me. 100% flaws that were not flaws but FTT's... (around 12:45)
I think I need a lot more experience to be able to end a day like this profitable. I was very consistent lately but when doing exact the same things on days like this things go wrong. So these type of days need to be identified quickly.
It's all a volume thing. We were in the last bars of yesterday and at times volume was really low today. Should have sidelined then volume dropped off so much.
A question for Spyder. You wrote you don't trade each non dominant traverse. What about non dominant traverses after a volatility extension?
Regards,
Ivo