Iterative Refinement

Quote from Munck:

Additions to FU using Qchart culling:

NCTY, OCN, STEC
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To expand, TC gives these numbers:

NCTY- EPS Rank, last Q - 26, EPS last yr - 44, RS- 17
OCN - 22 - 12 - 12
STEC - 17 - 73 -39

Note that TC gives its EPS ranking by figuring the last period's percentage increase over the prev period's percentage increase, and comparing this number against the all other stocks.

Example - TC says STEC had a -86% increase over the previous Q's EPS. This gave it a rank of 17 when compared against all stocks. However, earnings are still positive at .02/share. So the previous Q's EPS was around .14, a decreasing EPS. That's bad.
 
I recently started taking screenshots when I enter or exit a trade (courtesy of cnms and others). I used to debrief on EOD charts, and if I hadn't made a hand note or annotation on the charts, I had to remember the reasons for entry or exit. The screenshots allow me to see exactly what I was seeing at the time, and I can analyze the data elements that caused my decision, as well as the ones against it. If you aren't already doing this, I strongly recommend it.

I thought I would share my results for Friday: 12:00-16:00 EST, 14 trades, 1.20 pt SPY (equivalent to 12 pt ES), 65% of afternoon HL range of 18.25 pt. I execute in SPY to protect capital while I learn, nowhere near $1,000 a tick :D .
I am also experimenting with increasing size or adding to trades I am more confident about. This is not necessarily the best approach as it burdens MADA with an extra decision, but it worked for me in the past and I want to find out if it improves my results. The above results are actual; if traded at one size would've yielded 9 pt.

The volatility this week made for ample opportunities. I also traded on
- Wed 9:30-12:00,13:00-16:00 EST, 18 trades, 29 pt ES equivalent (vs 22 pt at one size), 100% of HL range of 29 pt
- Thu 14:00-16:15 EST, 13 trades, 2.25 pt (vs 1pt at one size), basically breakeven = humble pie after doing well the day before

<a href="http://members.shaw.ca/vorzo/Snapshots_Jan182008.zip">Here</a> is a zip file with Friday's screenshots - data elements that supported/opposed my decision are indicated by blue/red circles. In addition to ES5, YM2 and a sliver of ES1, I use ES15, which I check every 5min.
I hope people will benefit from seeing my decision process and learn from my mistakes - I welcome discussion and criticism.

Regards,
Vorzo
 
Quote from vorzo:

The volatility this week made for ample opportunities.
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Good to see one of the 'Old Guard' take advantage of those opportunities. It's definitely been an incredible journey. Thanks again for your contributions along the way (going back several years now).

- Spydertrader
 
Final Universe Update

Final Universe Additions

DSL LXU NCTY SCOR SFLY

Final Universe

ANW ASIA ATV AVR BCSI BHS BIDZ BKI BONT BPHX BTJ CALM CHDX CMED CUB DBTK DRYS DSL DSX EGLE EMKR EMS EXM FED FMCN FSTR GAIA GIGM GKK GLNG GMKT GRA GRRF GSAT GSOL HMIN ICOC IDCC IMMR JADE JASO JRJC KMGB LAZ LDK LKQX LPHI LQDT LXU MALL MEA MTH NCMI NCTY NFI POZN QMAR RWT SCOR SFLY SIGM SKX SNCR SNDA SNHY SOHU SOLF SSRX STAR SXE TASR TBSI TGIC TLEO TRCR TSL ULTR VDSI VSE VSR XING YTEC

Tuesday Dry Up

ASIA BHS BTJ CHDX ICOC JADE KMGB MEA NFI ULTR YTEC

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from vorzo:

I recently started taking screenshots when I enter or exit a trade
More...

This is good stuff.
I like what WGtrader, cnms2, and yourself have done with snapshots. It helps to debrief and log action done like this.
Thanks !
 
Quote from vorzo:

I recently started taking screenshots when I enter or exit a trade (courtesy of cnms and others). I used to debrief on EOD charts, and if I hadn't made a hand note or annotation on the charts, I had to remember the reasons for entry or exit. The screenshots allow me to see exactly what I was seeing at the time, and I can analyze the data elements that caused my decision, as well as the ones against it. If you aren't already doing this, I strongly recommend it.

I thought I would share my results for Friday: 12:00-16:00 EST, 14 trades, 1.20 pt SPY (equivalent to 12 pt ES), 65% of afternoon HL range of 18.25 pt. I execute in SPY to protect capital while I learn, nowhere near $1,000 a tick :D .
I am also experimenting with increasing size or adding to trades I am more confident about. This is not necessarily the best approach as it burdens MADA with an extra decision, but it worked for me in the past and I want to find out if it improves my results. The above results are actual; if traded at one size would've yielded 9 pt.

The volatility this week made for ample opportunities. I also traded on
- Wed 9:30-12:00,13:00-16:00 EST, 18 trades, 29 pt ES equivalent (vs 22 pt at one size), 100% of HL range of 29 pt
- Thu 14:00-16:15 EST, 13 trades, 2.25 pt (vs 1pt at one size), basically breakeven = humble pie after doing well the day before

<a href="http://members.shaw.ca/vorzo/Snapshots_Jan182008.zip">Here</a> is a zip file with Friday's screenshots - data elements that supported/opposed my decision are indicated by blue/red circles. In addition to ES5, YM2 and a sliver of ES1, I use ES15, which I check every 5min.
I hope people will benefit from seeing my decision process and learn from my mistakes - I welcome discussion and criticism.

Regards,
Vorzo
More...

Hi Vorzo,
I was generating pdf from your files.
and I noticed that your execution statement screenshot was taken at 1/18/2008 10:47pm which in the middle of 12 trades! How did that happen?

and what do you mean by "pace overextand"

and here's the pdf link for easy viewing
http://www.box.net/shared/u0w3hcwg8s
 
Quote from Talas:

Note that the ticker for BTJ has changed to BOLT which also should remove it from the DryUp list for Tues.
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The symbol change also precipitated the removal of BTJ from my Final Universe. Thanks for the 'Heads Up' post.

- Spydertrader
 
I find that perspective always helps. If you use any of the indicators that Jack recommends, pull up a monthly timeframe on the indexes and note how almost all the indicators are crossing the sweetspot(neutral).
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

Good to see one of the 'Old Guard' take advantage of those opportunities. It's definitely been an incredible journey. Thanks again for your contributions along the way (going back several years now).

- Spydertrader
More...

Thanks for your kind words Spyder. Your success and dedication continue to insipre me.

Cheers,
Vorzo
 
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