Iterative Refinement

[ljyoung]

Partial quote from cnms2:
except when you make mistakes, or when the market reacts extremely fast.

These are exactly the conditions I am talking about cnms2. I am not talking about accepting losses but rather appreciating that they are going to happen, no matter how expert you are, and then basically forgetting about it. There is no better way to foster a mindset of continually worrying about losing than to be crippled by believing that you have to be right all the time.

You do not have to convince me that the methodology espoused by Jack and Spyder is a superior one. It is hands down the closest thing to a "basic market science" that I have come across. I attempt to treat it as such in the way I think about it.

One of the first books I read on investing was by, as poor Victor calls him, "The Great Soros". In it he said, "We make money because we know that we don't know". That held me in good stead for quite a while. Jack says, "We make money because we know how to anticipate." Jack's way is superior and that's why I'm here - to learn how to anticipate, from him or anybody else that I perceive knows what they are talking about.

Best,

lj

 

[Padawan]

Quote from ivob:

These are FTT's indeed and the color corresponds with the channel. (except for the first red circle now that I see it)

Result was nice indeed because I completely missed the 14:05 breakout and was up already 20 points by then.

What did I do different in simtrading compared to trading live?

- I was more relaxed

- spent much more time in the market when I knew what was going on. After all you just have to be on the right side and time does the rest.

- Annotated better

- Did not care about P&L or earlier trades

- Did not hesitate one second on execution

- followed cnms2 advise: "enter on breakout of tape and reverse if this breakout does not materialize". Sometimes when you look for example for a point 3 up I actively look for a failed tape break in the other direction. By the way this does not mean you wait for "any" tape breakout to enter position. Only on action moments. This was a big AHA recently as simple as it sounds.

So basically enter immediately and wait for the domino's to fall. FTT, tape breakout, bar breakout, decr non dom volume towards RTL, RTL break on incr volume, point 2 and 3, +PRV, some indicator, etc.

When entering on point 3: tape breakout, bar breakout, +PRV.

So never wait for the market to prove that you are wrong pricewise but exit if the next point of the sequence does not materialize before the inevitable happens which everyone will know by then (meaning you will be late to exit or to reverse)

So be ready to leave your position at any time but zoom out and relax on +PRV. Every big profit starts small.

Nothing I didn't know and there is no reason to be over-enthusiastic. I have never been able to produce consistent results in trading for real. My plan is consistent profits on sim for a while and then trade very small (SPY)

regards,
Ivo

Great post. You're on a roll today.

 

[dkm]

Quote from cnms2:

....because of the PT2 to PT3 volume decrease on your trading fractal.

Frequently I see increasing volume on the non dom traverse from pt2 to pt3 and then pt3 forms with decreasing volume in the dominant direction. This is not a rare occurence and it continues to confuse me.

 

[Tums]

Quote from dkm:

Frequently I see increasing volume on the non dom traverse from pt2 to pt3 and then pt3 forms with decreasing volume in the dominant direction. This is not a rare occurence and it continues to confuse me.

may I ask which tree limb you are referring to?
Was it on a big tree or on a small tree?

 

[8833broc]

My trading results graphed would look like a non dominate tranverse of a Short channel. Plenty of small gains followed by rapid relatively big losses.

When I analized my dominate tranverse losses I discovered that they all happened on strong trending days where I stubbornly focus on going against the trend on a perceived FTT.

Another thing that I noticed is my INCORRECT usage of the YM. YM is good at confirming trend and at major changes in trend. Using the YM in an uptrend at the LTL, when the price just
went lower than the low of the last bar is not a change or a FTT signal on the ES at the forrest level. At the forrest level a YM change signal would be a RTL BO on increasing RED PRV.

Really bearing down on concentrating on my entries for this month ( my Exits are not optimal. I will concentrate on this next month ). So far so good in that all of entries this month are at "action" points on the es. EIther price takes off or a rapid reverse puts me on the right side of the market.

WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT THE MARKET IS GOING TO DO. THAT'S THE MARKET'S JOB. DO NOT mentally get locked in to your analysis. The market can quickly change and your analysis must change.

I will post my trading results at the end of the month.

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from dkm:

Frequently I see increasing volume on the non dom traverse from pt2 to pt3 and then pt3 forms with decreasing volume in the dominant direction. This is not a rare occurence and it continues to confuse me.

maybe you need to sweep to the left more often

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from dkm:

Frequently I see increasing volume on the non dom traverse from pt2 to pt3 and then pt3 forms with decreasing volume in the dominant direction. This is not a rare occurence and it continues to confuse me.

Three things create the scenario you describe.

1. Formation Break Outs (as you have in your clip)

2. 'Missed' (ommitted annotation) channels

3. Intra-Bar Gaussian Shift (Price switches from Dominant to Non-Dominant Intra-Bar)

If you have any (or a combination) of the three, anticipate seeing increasing Volume on the Non-Dominant Traverse.

- Spydertrader

 

[nkhoi]

I think this was what Jack had in mind when he said 'sweep'

 

[Mr_Black]

This is my results so far 2 weeks for forex using tapes and channels....

 

[TIKITRADER]

Quote from Mr_Black:

This is my results so far 2 weeks for forex using tapes and channels....

Nice work !