Iterative Refinement

Quote from ivob:

- I was more relaxed

- spent much more time in the market when I knew what was going on. After all you just have to be on the right side and time does the rest.
- Did not hesitate one second on execution
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This is not the case with me. When I was trading live (pre JHM) I was more apprehensive than when I simulate, but even now (simulating) I am preoccupied with being right and above all not ending the day negative. Ending the day negative prolongs my time simulating and delays the day I can turn wishful thinking into reality. Consequently, although I believe I see the right side of the market (and am usually correct) I always need additional confirmation before I act, yes on the simulator :(. I believe that additional exposure and studying will bring additional confidence that the MA I do is correct and that will lead to better DA's.
 
I have a feeling that my maroon RTL was incorrect because I missed the up move due the fact that price BO'd this channel on decreasing volume. Initially the 14:20 bar had me thinking the up trend was ending and then we got my old nemesis an outside bar. Hate those damn things.

Finally I was short at 14:50 @1393.25 and managed to freak myself out of the move so I exited at 14:53 @ 1393.25 :D. Nice huh? This is standard fare for me.

Finally I was monitoring the titanic battle between two channels around 15:30 and figured I would enter short at break of red RTL, but I just wasn't absolutely. positively, 100% for sure sure, so I didn't. Then of course I was way too far away from the RTL to enter so away it went.

On the bright side I managed to eek out 3 pts :D :D :D
 

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ES Daily January 16 /2008
Adjusted volume bottom pane.
Last bar forming is for the 17th.

ESDailyJanuary-16-2008.jpg
 

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In my experience the "confirmation" you're talking about turns negative an otherwise positive P&L. It brings you too late at the table.
Quote from guavaman:

This is not the case with me. When I was trading live (pre JHM) I was more apprehensive than when I simulate, but even now (simulating) I am preoccupied with being right and above all not ending the day negative. Ending the day negative prolongs my time simulating and delays the day I can turn wishful thinking into reality. Consequently, although I believe I see the right side of the market (and am usually correct) I always need additional confirmation before I act, yes on the simulator :(. I believe that additional exposure and studying will bring additional confidence that the MA I do is correct and that will lead to better DA's.
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Homework: "How to identify an FTT?" :)

1 - What can be seen before an FTT at each level of information: price, volume, annotations, indicators? Write it down!

2 - What can be anticipated to be seen after an FTT at each level of information: price, volume, annotations, indicators? Write it down!

3 - What is the usual sequence of changes from left to right, with the FTT in the middle? Write it down!

At the finest level of resolution, the FTT is a tape RTL breakout. Before it there are signals / events that anticipate it. After it there are signals / events that confirm it. Lack of confirmation means ...

This is what sweeping is all about. :)
 
Quote from guavaman:

This is not the case with me. When I was trading live (pre JHM) I was more apprehensive than when I simulate, but even now (simulating) I am preoccupied with being right and above all not ending the day negative. Ending the day negative prolongs my time simulating and delays the day I can turn wishful thinking into reality. Consequently, although I believe I see the right side of the market (and am usually correct) I always need additional confirmation before I act, yes on the simulator :(. I believe that additional exposure and studying will bring additional confidence that the MA I do is correct and that will lead to better DA's.
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From personal experience also, I think that if you can get over the "being right" thing then the "additional confirmation" thing will vanish. No trader is always right with his/her initial trading decisions. Tudor-Jones says losing is part of the game and he's right. It can really suck getting over the necessity to always be right but if you don't, you can't trade, IMO.

lj
 
Quote from cnms2:

In my experience the "confirmation" you're talking about turns negative an otherwise positive P&L. It brings you too late at the table.
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Of this I have no doubts :D
 
Quote from cnms2:

Homework: "How to identify an FTT?" :)
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Recently I have abandon trying to trade FTT's and rely on PT3's for all entries because at present I cannot accurately identify them, I see them all over the place which is obviously incorrect. Perhaps the addition of these suggestions to my nightly debrief will help.

Thanks.
 
Quote from guavaman:

Recently I have abandon trying to trade FTT's and rely on PT3's for all entries because at present I cannot accurately identify them, I see them all over the place which is obviously incorrect. Perhaps the addition of these suggestions to my nightly debrief will help.
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Or substitute "Point Three" where you see "FTT" in cnms2's post.

- Spydertrader
 
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