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Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
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the rest is to be more precise.Quote from Spydertrader:
Box OneWhile I can understand how one might 'see' the previous bar as the 'valid' Point Three, the next Bar's failure to exit the Lateral Formation provides a clear signal to hold.Box Two
Spyder,
Just to be clear, if the 12:00 bar had actually exited the lateral, then it would have had a better claim to be a PT3?
I found the 12:25 bar to be difficult to navigate. It formed a sym pennant (w/ the 12:20 bar). Normally I would look for some direction with a break of the pennant except the downside BO was made on decreasing volume.
In most cases this would not be that significant an issue, but the range of the bars makes the stakes a bit higher. The retrace the the RTL should be anticipated, but again the large ranges create a good amount of "self talk" that has a nasty habit of morphing into self loathing :eek:
Other than simply panicking out when price begins its downward move, does anyone have a different take? Perhaps a tight tape channel should be used.
In most cases this would not be that significant an issue, but the range of the bars makes the stakes a bit higher. The retrace the the RTL should be anticipated, but again the large ranges create a good amount of "self talk" that has a nasty habit of morphing into self loathing :eek:
Other than simply panicking out when price begins its downward move, does anyone have a different take? Perhaps a tight tape channel should be used.
Quote from guavaman:
Just to be clear, if the 12:00 bar had actually exited the lateral, then it would have had a better claim to be a PT3?
While the above statement holds true, I want to make sure you understand the more important point. The Bar after the Bar to which you refer also failed to exit the Lateral Formation. In addition, this particular Bar formed an Equivalent Low to the Bar you 'viewed' as a valid Point Three. When the equivalent Low formed, and the Bar also failed to exit the Lateral Formation, by definition, the Bar you viewed as a 'valid' point Three, no longer had validity.
The market had invalidated your hypothesis. What needed to come next (based on your 'view') did not materialize.
Nothing wrong with 'seeing' the market as you did. However, once the market indicated a correct version of events, it became time to take appropriate action. Clearly, the appropriate action is not sitting on the sidelines when you have a Point Three with increasing Volume.
As I said nearly one year ago, everyone makes mistakes. I still do. The difference is learning to adapt and quickly correct those mistakes which will build confidence.
You had the right sentiment and trend, your timing was just a bit off is all. You already had the 'right side of the market' down cold. Build on that.
- Spydertrader
Quote from guavaman:
Other than simply panicking out when price begins its downward move, does anyone have a different take? Perhaps a tight tape channel should be used.
Move to a higher fractal. Would it suprise you to know that Price stopped on the RTL of the daily down channel (the one which showed an FTT recently)?
See the next two Attached.
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1744345>
Attachments
Wanted to post some stocks Im watchin for tomorrow. Figured I'd try to get some conversation goin. Ive only noticed a few equities posters. I know Munck has responded a few times and I would be obliged to see his or any other equities knowledgable takes on my analysis.
FSTR - Expecting either increaseed black volume possibly leading to a breakout of the red down channel and confirming an FTT or decreased black volume meaning a non-dominant traverse of the red channel.
FSTR - Expecting either increaseed black volume possibly leading to a breakout of the red down channel and confirming an FTT or decreased black volume meaning a non-dominant traverse of the red channel.
Attachments
Also
HMIN - looking for increased black volume confirming an FTT
VSR - looking for some heavy black volume which would confirm a point three of the new up channel and begin a dominant traverse of this channel(chart attached)
Also interested in seeing a chart of SKX, having absolutely the toughest time doing guassians with this stock
Comments welcome
HMIN - looking for increased black volume confirming an FTT
VSR - looking for some heavy black volume which would confirm a point three of the new up channel and begin a dominant traverse of this channel(chart attached)
Also interested in seeing a chart of SKX, having absolutely the toughest time doing guassians with this stock
Comments welcome
Attachments
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1744464>
There were a few things that could've been gleaned from sweeping, as a result of our level of expertise. Function of the fractal we were trading we should've taken action or not during the 10:25 - 10:30 bars.
ES 5 min:
- at bar-to-bar level an R2R happened on 10:20 bar, which is an early sign of the price topping on bar 10:35 (sentiment change);
- the tape's RTL BO up means change at that level;
- it is hard to have the mental force to stay through a 5 point reversal; I'd prefer to reverse long at the RTL BO up, then reverse back short a couple of bars later, even if that meant a small loss;
- indicators signaled exit from long on bar 10:25, and they haven't given the short entry signal yet, at this level; which might've actually been the best play risk wise.
ES 5 min intrabar action, to review it we can look at the ES 1min:
- B2B !!!
- down channel's RTL BO.
YM 2 min:
- my YM 2min chart starts on the other minute than yours (10:29, 10:31, ...); there is an FTP and an FBO of it of the next (yellow) bar;
- the volume decrease is characteristic to pennants; it is also characteristic to a non-dominant tape; only after the BO of pennant or the tape's RTL BO/FBO the new direction can be known; in any case volume decrease means change is coming;
- the 10:33 bar's BO up from the FTP, and later of the down level 1 channel means change
There were a few things that could've been gleaned from sweeping, as a result of our level of expertise. Function of the fractal we were trading we should've taken action or not during the 10:25 - 10:30 bars.
ES 5 min:
- at bar-to-bar level an R2R happened on 10:20 bar, which is an early sign of the price topping on bar 10:35 (sentiment change);
- the tape's RTL BO up means change at that level;
- it is hard to have the mental force to stay through a 5 point reversal; I'd prefer to reverse long at the RTL BO up, then reverse back short a couple of bars later, even if that meant a small loss;
- indicators signaled exit from long on bar 10:25, and they haven't given the short entry signal yet, at this level; which might've actually been the best play risk wise.
ES 5 min intrabar action, to review it we can look at the ES 1min:
- B2B !!!
- down channel's RTL BO.
YM 2 min:
- my YM 2min chart starts on the other minute than yours (10:29, 10:31, ...); there is an FTP and an FBO of it of the next (yellow) bar;
- the volume decrease is characteristic to pennants; it is also characteristic to a non-dominant tape; only after the BO of pennant or the tape's RTL BO/FBO the new direction can be known; in any case volume decrease means change is coming;
- the 10:33 bar's BO up from the FTP, and later of the down level 1 channel means change
Quote from bi9foot:
I am curious to see how folks handled the 10:30bar.
I noted change and went short in the 10:25 bar and noted the increasing red volume on the ES. The 10:30 ES bar had flawish volume and was at the 20SMA. I looked at the YM and noted the decreasing black volume and figured we had continuation. When the bar cleared the high of the prev bar I exited the position.
A few questions:
1) Did anyone see change back to long earlier in the bar?
2) Did anyone reverse back long? I was hesitant because of the volume on the ES
3) Spyder is this a bar you would consider unusual or did I miss something?
I eventually got short on 2 bars later and caught 3 points when I reversed back long.
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