Iterative Refinement

Quote from ljyoung:

So far as I know the avi8 rendition of what is necessary to be successful trading the market using JHT principles, is neither unique nor forcing. If you wish to think that it is either unique or forcing, again, please do so. The reality is, that it isn't.

Avi-8 provided his opinion on a specific event. Others also attended, and I can only assume, they plan to post their opinions as well. Should anyone choose to diminish the influence today's event had on the participants, I can only say, "Good Luck with that."

Since you find the rendition neither unique nor forcing, I'm confident your P & L reflects the same opinion.

To be clear, this post isn't my attempt to 'stick up' for someone. Avi-8's a big boy and can take care of himself. However, having watched the eyes of those who attended, their facial expressions painted an entirely different picture than the one you describe.

One thing for sure, everyone thought they knew this stuff well (and I have no doubt you fall into this catagory as well). However, after a few minutes listening, I could see everyone now knows just how far they have yet to travel on this journey.

Good Trading to you.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

One thing for sure, everyone thought they knew this stuff well (and I have no doubt you fall into this catagory as well). However, after a few minutes listening, I could see everyone now knows just how far they have yet to travel on this journey.

Good Trading to you.

- Spydertrader

Wish I could have been there. Sounds like there was smoke!

"During Change we give a lot of consideration to the way taking profits and staying on the right side of the market comes together. I used to use a mirror for this and check for smoke coming out of my ears. Now a days I just think of it as banking into a thermal or skiing cute mogels in the snow." JH
 
Spyder, I can't thank you enough for all your time and never ending generosity in teaching this method.
I was very fortunate to be able to meet with some of you and to share in an amazing full day review with Spyder.

Just to start off, Spy shows up at the expo with a laptop ready to do a thorough review. Who goes out of their way for people and never asks for anything more in return than to do the work and understand completely, only to benefit ourselves.

I feel I do the work, and realized I have a lot of work to do.
I can share a few things that I see and also need to improve.
Speaking through my own mindset,
what is apparent is that all the annotations have done their job to the point they exist without them actually being drawn in.
I will continue to annotate, but it is now in my mind and seen in the charts.
So all that work has paid off. A complete understanding of channels and gaussians, that when looking at a chart of volume and price with nothing else on it, I see full annotations in my mind.

The work that needs to improve is the true understanding of the Jokari window.
Used everyday, all day, but not with a clear picture of the outcome and impact on what must come next.
What MUST come next if I am right,
What MUST come next if I am wrong.

Sounds easy enough, but I missed something along the journey here.
I felt I was applying MUST, but thought a lot about this one and I think I place SHOULD there at times.
Not an easy thing to see because I convinced myself it was MUST.
To get a true understanding of myself is the hardest part of the road.

The method is the method. . . . it works.
The faults are can only be improved when exposed. It is a great thing when they surface, that is when I can improve on them.

As far as using the YM when the ES gives permission, Do I overuse this one and only recently see this.

So maybe I will for a short time minimize my YM window and only bring up the chart when given the OK by the ES. Just like annotating everything to train the mind, I may have to train my mind in this way for a few weeks till it is something I do not even think about.

A lot of material was covered and impossible to write all that happened,
but these points were key focus points that were in great detail.
* Jokari window
* What must come next when right.
* What must come next if wrong.
*YM used when given permission by the ES.

They may seem like we have done them so much what is the big deal,
UNDERSTANDING them fully . . .
completely different and will take dedication and time.

The biggest thing to come out of all this is Spyder gave away the Holy grail yesterday. . .

It is yourself.
 
Hypothetical situation:

The market is in a downtrend with multuple volatility extensions. The previous bar came a after a retrace of the down channel and is showing lower red volume.

We are 2 minutes into the current bar. The bar shows increasing pro rata volume and failed to traverse the channel after bouncing off a wall in the DOM. The dynamic close is currently moving up and has taken out the previous' bar close. We decide that this is an FTT and reverse our position.

If we're right, what comes next is decreasing volume with price moving up towards the right trendline.

But, what must come next if we're wrong? What information will determine that you were wrong and make you reverse your position from long back to short?
 
If you are trading at this level, you need to be prepared for anything that must come next! In other words, you are sitting in a nice down channel, as you have described, and making money being on the right side of the market.

Now we have an FTT forming (we think) maybe it is a retrace of the channel, or a flaw or an internal formation and we want to take that trade to increase our money velocity.

But the question is what would each of these formations look like?

Each and every bar reveals alot...

The market is in a downtrend with multuple volatility extensions. The previous bar came a after a retrace of the down channel and is showing lower red volume.

How much lower? was it a pennnant or an internal formation (i.e. flaw) formed from the bar before it? Did the previous bar exhibit extreme volume and create a VE? Where are we with respect to the 20SMA?

We are 2 minutes into the current bar. The bar shows increasing pro rata volume and failed to traverse the channel after bouncing off a wall in the DOM. The dynamic close is currently moving up and has taken out the previous' bar close. We decide that this is an FTT and reverse our position.

What you are describing here sounds like it might be an FTT but at this point it could turn out to be a retrace within a lateral or internal formation or movement or even an outside bar forming. Is this bar forming inside a lateral formation or lateral movement? If so, did it BO of a formation at the time of your decision and how did the volume form (did it come on early of late within the bar)?

But you have decided to act and reverse. So lets go with that assumption for now.

If we're right, what comes next is decreasing volume with price moving up towards the right trendline.

If we are in a lateral formation or pennant formation, I would look to the BO to provide a signal (resumption of the down channel or new channel formation). If we are forming a tape (non-dom retrace) I might ask how far away is the RTL of the short channel we are retracing? is there any recycled PT3 or fanned channel that we are anticipating a retrace to initially (what is the slope of the newly formed tape (i.e. what is the velocity?) considering these things help me to visualize what the gaussians must be to get to each of these places.


But, what must come next if we're wrong? What information will determine that you were wrong and make you reverse your position from long back to short?

This depends on what we are anticipating and what level we are trading? What are you anticipating at this point? if this is a tape and we did have a FTT, I would be anticipating either expansion of the tape (on increasing black volume) or BO to form PT3 (on decreasing red volume).

EDIT. Just noticed you posted an image - I will review it and add my comments (for what they are worth :) ).

BTW. I love thinking about these kinds of things and running through them in my mind. I think it is a great mental exercise!

Thanks for posting it!
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

Avi-8 provided his opinion on a specific event. Others also attended, and I can only assume, they plan to post their opinions as well. Should anyone choose to diminish the influence today's event had on the participants, I can only say, "Good Luck with that."

Since you find the rendition neither unique nor forcing, I'm confident your P & L reflects the same opinion.

To be clear, this post isn't my attempt to 'stick up' for someone. Avi-8's a big boy and can take care of himself. However, having watched the eyes of those who attended, their facial expressions painted an entirely different picture than the one you describe.

One thing for sure, everyone thought they knew this stuff well (and I have no doubt you fall into this catagory as well). However, after a few minutes listening, I could see everyone now knows just how far they have yet to travel on this journey.

Good Trading to you.

- Spydertrader

The avi8 rendition of things which I was referring to had absolutely nothing to do with his post concerning the goings on at the Traders' Expo. Zero, zip, nada. If because my post followed his post on the Traders' Expo confusion was generated, please accept my apologies. I was responding to his post immediately prior to the one Spyder refers to and thought that because I quoted it, that that fact was clear. So much for clarity.

How well I understand the huge amount of material that has been presented by all posters concerning JHT, beginning with JH himself back in the early part of 2003, is something I ask myself each day. I believe I understand the majority of what has been said and when I find something that I don't comprehend, I ask a question about it. If someone chooses not to respond to my question, so be it. There are a multiplicity of reasons why they would elect to do so and I'm not going to waste their time or mine trying to find out which one it is.

To my mind iteration involves the introduction of new ideas based on consideration of what is presented as dogma. Iteration can take many forms and what one person considers to be iteration may be different from what another does. The point would seem to be - what's new? We each must answer that question for ourselves and try not to bludgeon each other with the results of our deliberation.

So that moves us to the penultimate point of this Sunday morning's homily which is the putting of JHT, and all that it entails, into practice. Oh, yah and maybe's that's what Spyder has been iterating? But maybe not. IMO, there are all sorts of ways that one can learn how to do this - the theory into practice thing. For JH it is at the least, the log, annotation and NLP. For ST (and others) it is at the least, annotation and NLP. My approach is more eclectic (some would say scattered) - a little bit o' this and that.

Finally, this is the second time in recent times that, IMO, Spyder has referred to my P/L as being the arbiter of the utility of my rendition of JHT and of course he is spot on. The beauty of being a trader is that each day you have the opportunity to test your mettle and the utility of your trading method, in the market. As opposed to academic clap-trap which purports to prove this or that "Theory of the Markets" without stepping inside the market, if the trader ain't doin' it right (= making a consistent profit) the trader will be crushed and rather mercilessly. After a hiatus of several months, I returned to active (= real$) trading last Thursday and ended the day with a loss (-2.25 points + costs). The main reason for the showing - vestiges of the edge mentality remained in Trade 1. It's a tough Jones to shake off, but Trade 2 showed an improvement. Oh goodee.

And no I won't be posting the trades or a record of my P/L here but if I am ground to fine dust, at the end of this year I will post somewhere a statement to that effect. Until that time I bid all of you thread denizens a fond adieu and as Spyder says,

Good Trading to You All,

lj
 
Quote from ehorn:

Can you include a chart or picture to illustrate the situation you have described?

Well as they say a picture is worth a thousand words!

In my opinion, this is a precarious entry or reversal point (but, of course, it depends on where you entered short originally). Would have been cool to reverse on the FBO of the lower bound of the lateral formation though! :)

The current bar shows a very strong shift in sentiment change and I would be looking for a strong BO of the lateral formation on extreme black volume (though I would expect more volume on the current bar for this type of intra-bar shift). So I might be mindful of a test of the upper bound on the lateral formation too and look to enter on the BO as opposed to the chosen reversal point.

If the bar struggles to BO of the lateral formation I would wash (or reverse) and wait for further confirmation as to direction (i.e. PT3 or tape formation in a new up channel or resumption of the down channel).

But what could come next??? A tape? A pennant? An outside bar? A formation BO or FBO? A BO or FBO of the channel?

What would these look like in order to happen? Great stuff to ponder! I have in my head that this is the essense of "What must come next"

Making these considerations, knowing what they look like, and just crossing them of the list until one remains as the future moves into the now. Very cool!
 

Attachments

Increasing red volume.
Quote from FerdinandAlx:

Hypothetical situation:

... But, what must come next if we're wrong? What information will determine that you were wrong and make you reverse your position from long back to short?
 
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