Iterative Refinement

[Tums]

Quote from ivob:

...Things are not what they seem. FTT's happen on flaw volume and flaws happen on high volume. Holding after BO seems the stupidest thing to do. As soon as you have seen increasing volume or increasing PRV, the move is over.

Others may have a profit trading this method but realistically I don't know if I ever will. I try to believe it, I want to believe it but reality shows otherwise. Been working on it for 14 months now. Every day...

If your MADA is telling you one thing, and the reality presents you with something else... there must be a disconnect somewhere.

Since the market cannot be wrong, we must humbly admit the disconnect on our side:

our analysis must be deficient,
our logic must be faulty, or
our application of logic must be incomplete.

 

[LittleMac]

Looks like RWT could give a signal today. Could someone with any sort of confidence in their channels and Guassians for RWT and LDK please post their charts. I've been staring at these charts for an hour now trying to align the Guassians and it just doesnt work out. I felt pretty confident after doing quite well on futures annotating yesterday but I go back to stocks and its not clear.

Comments needed.

 

[gooch87]

Quote from bi9foot:

I was definitely anticipating a point 3 of an up channel and thought we had the turn when the YM broke up from pennant in the highlighted area.

I am curious as to why you did not go long there but instead waited until the next ES bar to go long.

Sorry it took so long to answer bi9foot.
here is what I was thinking during my trade yesterday.

 

[Tums]

Quote from LittleMac:

Looks like RWT could give a signal today. Could someone with any sort of confidence in their channels and Guassians for RWT and LDK please post their charts. I've been staring at these charts for an hour now trying to align the Guassians and it just doesnt work out. I felt pretty confident after doing quite well on futures annotating yesterday but I go back to stocks and its not clear.

Comments needed.

time to switch to a 30m chart?

 

[Avi 8]

Quote from LittleMac:

...trying to align the Guassians and it just doesnt work out...

Classic sign that the channels are not drawn correctly.

The market is very accommodating in it's ability to 'confirm' what 'we' have chosen to draw. It amazes me everyday to see the simple geometry of the market. Simple parallel lines drawn at various slopes is all that is required to 'see' the market. The market confirms the lines and slopes with volume. What else does one need?

 

[Mr_Black]

So far continuation from yesterday's down trend

 

[guavaman]

Today's efforts

FYI: The pink circles are areas of confusion

 

[ericta]

Quote from Breakeven:

To be honest I am not sure where and when the confusion sets in...

I always seem to end the day with a chart that matches closely with the ones posted on the thread, but I just can't seem to make any productive use of it.
...

Hi Breakeven,
Do you think of each trade in term of setups? If you do, then it's easy to zero in the confusion:
categorize every trade you took by setup, and give a profitability score at the end of the day. Trade the highest scored setup and debrief/post a chart or question for the low ones.

Have a good weekend.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from guavaman:

Today's efforts

FYI: The pink circles are areas of confusion

Step back a little.

Look at the pace (volume) as blocks of the day. Since you do ellipses, make blcoks for given pace periods. You will note that you have ellipses where a new block (pace) appears to begin to hold reign. This is the primary theme of the confusion

Back up your understanding of this with the more detailed traverses (price channels) within the channel you are emphasizing (the one you are acting upon mentally) as this pace change occurs.

I like the way you clone and drag your symbol annotations.

The blocking of paces is coarse. Within these blocks are the usual Gaussians (on several levels concurrently) As you see, especially with OB's just after a shift down of pace, the bar volume is smaller to cause change after you come to the end of your well annotated internal patterns. This is a split bar functionally.

Lastly, you can depend on your work on the YM to guide your annotating on the ES.

Thank you for organizing your thoughts on what was confusing you.

 

[bi9foot]

Quote from Spydertrader:
Make sure you only look at the YM when given permission by the ES, and make sure you always look at the YM when given permission by the ES.

Where you trying to imply something else of was it just a typo?

Quote from Spydertrader:

I encourage you to only look at Volume (PRV) after given permission by the YM to do so (meaning the YM has signalled change)

Can you expand on this a bit, this is the first time I have heard this. Do you mean both ES and YM voume PRV? Do you mean go ES -> YM -> Volume as each level gives one permission to go to the next lower level.

Quote from Spydertrader:

If the market shows decreasing red after a Pennant BreakOut to the Up side on increasing black Volume, then one clearly does not have more increasing Volume on the next bar after the breakout.

I apologize for not being very clear in in my earlier post that I was looking for a ES point 3 up. From your reply I think you interpreted that I was describing the sequence in the YM chart. I have attached below a revised snip that shows my thought process during that time period. I believe I went to the YM at the right time.

From what I have noted, I was expecting a pt 3 up on the ES and I saw the dominant down around 10:55 am. That is why I asked if you were looking for a pt3 up on the ES prior to 10:55, where you would have taken action. If you had already seen the dominant direction switch, please point me to where I went wrong. 10:40 -10:42 is the area where I thought we had a FTT and then decided we did not have a FTT.

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1794035">

Quote from Spydertrader:
5 and 7 tics is far to early to be entering into a trade.

Agreed, I seemed to be getting in at the retrace of the retrace. I have a hard time distinguishing between a retrace of a retrace and the actual FTT when looking for a Point3 channel on the ES. In this example, I took the first sign of change whereas Gooch waited for what to me looked like the actual FTT.

Quote from Spydertrader:
According to your chart snip posted earlier, you had increasing red followed by decreasing black during the 10:40 - 10:45 bars. Such sequences exist in down channels.

Are you talking about the YM? Because on the ES the last 4 volume bars looked like a retrace with the only increasing red volume attributed to the pennant BO (highligthed with my comments below).

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1794039">

Thanks