Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Hi guavaman,
I have Point 1 at 11:40 rather than Point 3. I'm annotating the 5 min ES-only fractal. I don't see a confirmed down Traverse until 11:30, with an FTT and JW Traverse-level change signal at 11:35. With Point 1 at 11:40, the 11:55 bar becomes part of the Point 1-2 dominant move up.
Quote from guavaman:
The 11:00 bar must not have been a signal of change (from short to long) and instead the signal of change must have been at 11:35 making :40 the Pt1.
bummer for guava
Toss out the above conclusion, and try again. What you have missed does not reside at 11:00 or 11:35. Start with your original premise and look for evidence which disproves that which you felt exists. Arbitrarily deciding something simply because you currently can't see the answer, doesn't teach you how to avoid repeating this error in the future.
- Spydertrader
I don't know if the 11:25 bar close changed when I refreshed, but I now see that it closed on the lower boundary of the Symmetrical Pennant, which means my Point 3 down was never confirmed by more IRV after the Lateral BO. I also notice that what I had as Point 3 up at 12:30 was never confirmed by more IBV before the RTL was broken on IRV.
I don't see any confirmed Point 3 down Traverse yet today, at the 5 min ES-only fractal. Either I'm missing something or else Point 3 of the first down Traverse of the day was at 12:40.
This is reminding me of the day in August when Spydertrader posted a chart which consisted of one down Traverse followed by a giant Lateral for the rest of the day. Within this Lateral were several Traverses at finer resolutions, but at the ES-only resolution they were not Traverses.
It is very likely that I missed something, so I'll have to review this later.
The answer resides in understanding why 11:55 differs from 12:35. (All times Eastern and close of ES Bars).
- Spydertrader
ES 5 Minute mess so far. . .
Just my view of today
Just my view of today
Thanks for the hint. I found a way to annotate such that P3 down is confirmed at 10:50 EST. I originally had a Lateral here but I suspect that the return to dominance at 10:40 allows us to kill that Lateral, meaning that the 10:50 bar no longer requires more IRV to confirm a Lateral BO.
This change in annotation results in both the 11:55 EST bar and the 12:35 EST bar occurring after P3 up. So now the question becomes, why does 11:55 not represent a Traverse-level change signal via the Jokari Window? Spydertrader hinted that I need to understand why the 11:55 bar differs from the 12:35 bar. I see that the 11:55 bar moved up on DBV and increasing volatility, whereas the 12:35 bar moved up on DBV and decreasing volatility (neither bar closed in Lateral Movement). So perhaps increasing Price on decreasing Volume and increasing volatility is not a Traverse-level change signal.
I have two questions:
1. Is a return to dominance at 10:40 a valid reason to kill the Lateral?
2. After all sequences for a Traverse have completed (i.e., after P3 has been confirmed), does a bar which moves in the dominant direction on decreasing volume but increasing volatility, represent continuation at the ES-only Traverse fractal (again, for a bar that does not close in LM)?
Thanks.
11:35 jw sig for change but holding long. Looking for a pt 3.
11:40 fbp
11:45 fbp bo + ibv We now have pt3, but it is also a pt 1 as we are following a trav level sfc
11:50 ibv confirms dom long with more ibv
*11:55 jw but we are on the way to a pt2 so invalid sfc
12:00 cont higher with ibv
12:05 ftp
12:10 ftp bo dbv, new p2 (also jw but invalid)
12:15 to 12:25 LM
12:30 LM bo ibv but not a new p1 because
*12:35 jw after new pt3, sfc
In this process, the traverse (p1 11:00, p2 11:15, p3 11:40), morphs into a channel.