Iterative Refinement

[romanus]

Quote from treeline:

On TIKITRADER's chart, I see a Traverse-level change signal on August 20. This bar was an IBGS on IRV, after completion of Points 1, 2, and 3 down. We've recently been taught to view such bars as having increasing black Volume for Jokari Window analysis, so we should be anticipating continuation up after August 20. This is what we got for 2 days, but the Traverse did not end. I will have to study it further to see if there's another way to annotate which would not give a Traverse-level change signal on 8/20.

Note the last two stalls here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1447728

one of them is IBGS on increasing volume

 

[romanus]

Quote from treeline:

For me, everything is clear and unambiguous until 11:30 EST. At 11:30, I see an IBGS on IRV (after P3 down), and I run into the same issue I had on TIKITRADER's daily chart. This bar looks like a Traverse-level change signal (TLCS), but the market continues down. I need to figure out how to avoid seeing these bars as TLCS's.

Edit: the 11:25 bar also appears to give a Jokari Window TLCS. Price moves down on DRV and doesn't close in LM.

Here's another stall for you, also IBGS on increasing volume: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1450271

 

[romanus]

Quote from romanus:

Here's another stall for you, also IBGS on increasing volume: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1450271

One more, 1215 : http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1483593

 

[romanus]

Quote from treeline:

...

Edit: the 11:25 bar also appears to give a Jokari Window TLCS. Price moves down on DRV and doesn't close in LM.

11:25 [close of] ES is on VE => YM shows continuation down

 

[treeline]

Quote from romanus:

One more, 1215 : http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1483593

Thanks for the examples, romanus. I'll review them to see what subtle contextual clues could keep me from reversing on such bars.

I'm at work today so I only saw the 11:25 and 11:30 bars in hindsight. There are times when I'm monitoring real time and I just "know" that this isn't the end of the Traverse, even though I see what appears to be a change signal. Other times I am probably too rigid and I say to myself, "but that's an IBGS on IRV after P3. It must be a change signal." I think that sometimes I see the full context at a subconscious level but my conscious mind gets hung up on one or two data elements. I anticipate that more screen time will help to get my conscious mind into harmony with my subconscious mind...

 

[romanus]

Quote from treeline:

... subtle contextual clues ...

Here's a few more,
10:10 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1485059

14:25 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1486414
a proposed new T-shirt design:
"Flaws - don't get fooled by them. Hold."

 

[Mr_Black]

Quote from sscott:

Is your 1755 FTP a FBP?

FBP

 

[romanus]

If somebody who knows is watching - do we have a down channel (dom traverse, non-dom traverse, dom traverse)?

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from romanus:

If somebody who knows is watching - do we have a down channel (dom traverse, non-dom traverse, dom traverse)?

You are watching, and you already know the answer.

- Spydertrader

 

[icarus618]

I think he meant for you to post one of your hindsight charts to clear up his confusion.

Seriously, cut the guy some slack. He's been hanging on your every word for months now following your advice to not move beyond "M" until he's mastered that, whatever that means.