Iterative Refinement

[Spydertrader]

Quote from dkm:

It tells me I am going from pt2 to p3

Really?

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1928537>

 

[romanus]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Come on now folks.

Anything different about the bar directly after the bar which signaled change??

Anything at all????

If price is moving from pt2 to pt3 we expect anything but the increased black

Edit: I posted before I saw Spydertrader's answer to dkm

 

[ivob]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Come on now folks.

Anything different about the bar directly after the bar which signaled change??

Anything at all????

15:45? I see decreasing black like you would expect after BO and before a point 3 down.

Quote from Spydertrader:


Note also the YM (15:36 to 15:42 [close of] bars). Three Change signals back to back to back - with the last one forming an FTT. Peak Volume, Pennant, Formation FBO (also an IBGS), followed by an second IBGS.

Sure, I see change but as I hold point 1->2 and wait for point 3 there was no reason to exit....

YM showed decreasing volume all the time while going up since the IBGS. When the ES 15:45 was taken out on increasing black that was the moment when (for me) a point 3 down was out of the picture.

So you were not waiting for a point 3 down at all? Never?

Exactly at what moment should it be clear that we are not waiting for a point 3 down anymore? Or why were we not waiting for a point 3 down at all? The action after a BO is hold or not? The sequence is 1-2-3 and then we start looking for an FTT...

regards,
Ivo

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ivob:

15:45? I see decreasing black like you would expect after BO and before a point 3 down.

You do?

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1928540>

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ivob:

Exactly at what moment should it be clear that we are not waiting for a point 3 down anymore?

No later than the [close of] 15:46 YM bar.

- Spydertrader

 

[ivob]

I admit: I missed this.... Incredible. The only time increasing black is not trend change are the three situations discussed and this is not one of them. Thank you.

Okay, so had it been 5000 contracts less then you would have expected the point 3 down?

regards,
Ivo

Quote from Spydertrader:

You do?

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1928540>

 

[cnms2]

Increasing non-dom volume after VE: reverse!

Quote from ivob:

Now here's something that puzzles me.

We have:
- pennant breakout on increasing volume
- breakout of the lateral formation on increasing volume
- more increasing volume on the next bar (15:35)
- Breakout of RTL on increasing red volume....

Sure we get change inside the 15:40 bar but don't we have every reason in the world to hold short and to expect a point 3 down? What did I miss?

How did others see this period?

regards,
Ivo

<IMG SRC="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1928549">

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ivob:

So you were not waiting for a point 3 down at all? Never?

Pennant BO, All good.
Increasing Volume, All good.

More increasing Volume, but decreased Volatility. Good, but also change.

What does the YM say? Also says change.

OK, so right here you either override the market signal and hold from Point Two to Point Three, or the trader reverses.

One bar later on the ES, we see increasing black. Anybody holding short through increasing black isn't thinking clearly.

15:46 [close of] bar on the YM goes increasing black as Price breaks an RTL.

Any of this unclear?

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ivob:

Okay, so had it been 5000 contracts less then you would have expected the point 3 down?

5000 contracts less and the context changes.

You tell me.

What happens when context changes?

- Spydertrader

 

[ivob]

It is clear.

Sounds stupid but I simply missed the increasing black.
It is stupid. I feel ashamed.

regards,
Ivo

Quote from Spydertrader:

Pennant BO, All good.
Increasing Volume, All good.

More increasing Volume, but decreased Volatility. Good, but also change.

What does the YM say? Also says change.

OK, so right here you either override the market signal and hold from Point Two to Point Three, or the trader reverses.

One bar later on the ES, we see increasing black. Anybody holding short through increasing black isn't thinking clearly.

15:46 [close of] bar on the YM goes increasing black as Price breaks an RTL.

Any of this unclear?

- Spydertrader