Iterative Refinement

[Spydertrader]

Quote from Padawan:

I think it is a resolution issue, but not entirely sure.

Did you intend to apply logic used to anticipate trend continuation or change to the countertrend portion of the market? We use the Jokari Window in order to anticipate a change from dominant to non-dominant movement of Price and Volume. We then apply context to the environment in order to understand, "What must come next."

By example, Price moves lower on increasing Volume as Price moves through a Point Three Down Channel. As Price approaches a Left Trend Line, PRV indicates we should expect to see decreasing Volume by close of bar. When the current Bar closes, we note Price has created a Volatility Expansion on actual decreasing Volume. When we ask ourselves, "What must come next?" We know to expect to 'see' decreasing black Volume as Price retraces toward the Right Trend Line becuase we had received a signal for change from the market (See Jokari Window).

We then monitor Volume and Price expecting to 'see' the decreasing black Volume continue until Price reaches the Right Trend Line - where we expect to 'see' black Volume increase as Price breaks through the RTL.

We now add context, and "where we are with resepct to the right side of the market" in order to determine what new context exists (e.g. Did we form a Point Three? Did we break out of some sort of Lateral Formation? etc. etc.) Once we have a new dominant channel, we begin the whole process again.

- Spydertrader

- Spydertrader

 

[Padawan]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Did you intend to apply logic used to anticipate trend continuation or change to the countertrend portion of the market? We use the Jokari Window in order to anticipate a change from dominant to non-dominant movement of Price and Volume. We then apply context to the environment in order to understand, "What must come next."

By example, Price moves lower on increasing Volume as Price moves through a Point Three Down Channel. As Price approaches a Left Trend Line, PRV indicates we should expect to see decreasing Volume by close of bar. When the current Bar closes, we note Price has created a Volatility Expansion on actual decreasing Volume. When we ask ourselves, "What must come next?" We know to expect to 'see' decreasing black Volume as Price retraces toward the Right Trend Line becuase we had received a signal for change from the market (See Jokari Window).

We then monitor Volume and Price expecting to 'see' the decreasing black Volume continue until Price reaches the Right Trend Line - where we expect to 'see' black Volume increase as Price breaks through the RTL.

We now add context, and "where we are with resepct to the right side of the market" in order to determine what new context exists (e.g. Did we form a Point Three? Did we break out of some sort of Lateral Formation? etc. etc.) Once we have a new dominant channel, we begin the whole process again.

- Spydertrader

- Spydertrader

Perfect. Thank you

 

[LittleMac]

I have a qeustion with regards to the Jokari window and the volume analysis. i got into ARGN today at the bottom of th epurple lateral around 15.10. I rode it up to about the 15.40 mark and got out based on what i though was an FTT of the 5 minute chart. The stock continued to rise. My qesution isnt with regards to the out on the FTT on the 5 min chart but with regard to the 30.

In the circled area there is increasing black volume. But in between are periods of increasing black then decreasing black(arrows). Now if I want to catch this move, then what should be my thought process here. Should I say.... as soon as a decreasing black bar closes on the 30 min, I should exit cause the trend is changing?? I know I can use my drawn channel as one guideline(is this enough??). But when I see this, I think Jokari window...decreasing black....better get out.

I exited on the first arrow basically. My actual thoughts went Decreasing Black on 30 bar just closed.... then i switched to 5 min and saw what appeared to be an FTT of the same up channel.... then I got out. Obviously Im missing the move here and maybe even the entire point. Talk me through this.

Comments appreciated.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from LittleMac:

Talk me through this.

Each time you received a signal for change from Volume, Price followed and did change its trend. However, you missed the follow up signal - where the market provided another signal for change in the very next bar sending Price back higher.

Oddly enough, such circumstances have received ample attention over the last week with respect to WMCN when one sits on the right side or the wrong side of the market. One wonders how this information missed your attention.

- Spydertrader

 

[Tums]

Quote from LittleMac:

I have a qeustion with regards to the Jokari window and the volume analysis. i got into ARGN today at the bottom of th epurple lateral around 15.10. I rode it up to about the 15.40 mark and got out based on what i though was an FTT of the 5 minute chart. The stock continued to rise. My qesution isnt with regards to the out on the FTT on the 5 min chart but with regard to the 30.

In the circled area there is increasing black volume. But in between are periods of increasing black then decreasing black(arrows). Now if I want to catch this move, then what should be my thought process here. Should I say.... as soon as a decreasing black bar closes on the 30 min, I should exit cause the trend is changing?? I know I can use my drawn channel as one guideline(is this enough??). But when I see this, I think Jokari window...decreasing black....better get out.

I exited on the first arrow basically. My actual thoughts went Decreasing Black on 30 bar just closed.... then i switched to 5 min and saw what appeared to be an FTT of the same up channel.... then I got out. Obviously Im missing the move here and maybe even the entire point. Talk me through this.

Comments appreciated.

If this is meant to be an overnight equity trade, I would use the intraday chart for an entry, but leave the daily actions to the daily chart.

If this is meant to be a learning exercise in PV, I would suggest a broadly participated instrument with trends and oscillations. e.g. SPY or ES.

...start drawing your channels
... annotate your observations... 1, 2, 3, FTT, FTP, FBP, BO, FBO... etc.,
... then draw the matching gaussians...

What you are looking for will come... before you start looking for them.

 

[LittleMac]

Quote from Tums:

If this is meant to be an overnight equity trade, I would use the intraday chart for an entry, but leave the daily actions to the daily chart.

If this is meant to be a learning exercise in PV, I would suggest a broadly participated instrument with trends and oscillations. e.g. SPY or ES.

...start drawing your channels
... annotate your observations... 1, 2, 3, FTT, FTP, FBP, BO, FBO... etc.,
... then draw the matching gaussians...

What you are looking for will come... before you start looking for them.

Thanks for the advice. Its definitely meant to be an exercise in PV recognition. The exercise has been looking at the thirty minute chart at taped/pt 3 channels, searching for FTTs based on the channel, MACD Stochastics, etc....then entering and then monitoring the volume on the 30 min chart (bar to bar) and the 5 min chart bar to bar to get into sync with the market. I am new at it so all kinds of insecurities arise(this being one of them) I am so used to daytrading that I figured Id build my learning with this method. I know a lot of noise exists on the 5 min chart(equities) and the ES would be better but I currently dont have access to the ES.

 

[Tums]

Quote from LittleMac:

Thanks for the advice. Its definitely meant to be an exercise in PV recognition. The exercise has been looking at the thirty minute chart at taped/pt 3 channels, searching for FTTs based on the channel, MACD Stochastics, etc....then entering and then monitoring the volume on the 30 min chart (bar to bar) and the 5 min chart bar to bar to get into sync with the market. I am new at it so all kinds of insecurities arise(this being one of them) I am so used to daytrading that I figured Id build my learning with this method. I know a lot of noise exists on the 5 min chart(equities) and the ES would be better but I currently dont have access to the ES.

Ditch the MACD and Stoch!

Make up your mind... what do you want to do? Do you want to learn PV? or do you want to play video games?

If you want to learn PV... then put away everything else for now. Not that they are no use... you can come back to visit them at a later date.

If you can't get ES... then try SPY...
or try here... you can update the chart every 5 mins.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/

They key is... you need an instrument that gives you trends and oscillations.
A sideways market can use PV too, but not a good starting point for your learning exercise.

 

[cnms2]

A couple of recent posts by Spydertrader useful for understanding the WMCN sequences: this & this

 

[mephistoII]

Quote from cnms2:

A couple of recent posts by Spydertrader useful for understanding the WMCN sequences: this & this

Thank you, cnms2, for bringing these excellent posts back to the forefront. I have fallen behind in my readings, and with almost 1800 pgs before us now, it can often seem a bit overwhelming . And, to consider Spyder's time and effort in all of this is quite mind-boggling, to say the least. Cheers ...

 

[callmate]

What can make a point 1?

FTT, VE and bounce of LTL
( know it cold)

Where does the 'change' happen for a new channel direction?

Point 1

Ok we have Point 1, what must come next? Point 2

Context ( uptrend, dominant channel) – increasing volume, increasing price ( jokari window) continue

For point 2 – ( non- dominant ) we anticipate, decreasing red in price, decreasing volume (jokari window)
We have point 2, what must come next? Point 3

For point 3 – ( dominant ) we anticipate increasing black price and decreasing black volume ( jokari window)

Now we need decreasing red in price and increasing volume to head lower (jokari window)

If instead of increasing price and decreasing volume, we have increasing volume, it’s highly unlikely that we will get point 3, the price will travel higher
(jokari wondow)

Study page 117 of this journal and Avi 8's postings around page 170.