Iterative Refinement

Quote from northchuck1:

Given that chart (2/29), then how would one draw the channels after that VE at 12:30 ? I'm assuming the VE is the pt. 2 itself. Is the 12:35 or 12:40 bar the pt. 3? Kinda throws the whole pt. 3/VE thingy off. Can anyone show the "corrected" channels" ??
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This will mess you all up, and they're not fully annotated. It's a LTL bounce on the green, point 2 on the blue and point one on the red. The point was there was never any real zig-zag on that move, it was just a tape. Finding a 1,2,3 on 2 bars is just a tape, even though we had a VE it never made a point 3.

Start with 2 bars and build 'em from there. Note every + volume.

The midday went kinda sideways, look at the 20sma. - EZ
 

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Quote from Ezzy:

This will mess you all up, and they're not fully annotated. It's a LTL bounce on the green, point 2 on the blue and point one on the red. The point was there was never any real zig-zag on that move, it was just a tape. Finding a 1,2,3 on 2 bars is just a tape, even though we had a VE it never made a point 3.

Start with 2 bars and build 'em from there. Note every + volume.

The midday went kinda sideways, look at the 20sma. - EZ
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Okay, along that same day.

Just prior to 11:10 bar, about 11:00 to 11:05 ES, the YM had made a definite FTT. So jumped in long on the ES. Then the OB 11:10 bar hit. So I was long on the 11:10 bar, then it headed south. After about 3 pts. down, and some bumps down on PRV on the YM, I reversed short on ES, figuring I was on the wrong side of the market. As the next two bars played out, the FTT ended up being correct. But I got spooked on the OB and inc. PRV down on YM. So then I'm short at the bottom of the bar, and price heads north. Lost 2+ pts. on the way down, 2+ pts. on the way up. But the YM FTT ended up being correct.

I'm baffled at how to handle this. I know you're not supposed to watch your P&L, but at what point do you bail out ? Price was decr., inc. red PRV and I'm long. Bailed out just in time to have it reverse short.

Don't entirely get SCT vs. exit/re-enter. Would it be more prudent to exit at the YM FTT, then re-enter ES when I see increasing PRV at the prior down channel RTL. Problem is, it happens so quick, when I do this I tend to miss the big juicy VE's that make the bucks.

Any and all comments welcome.

edit: prior down channel RTL
 
Am I supposed to react to YM PRV in the same manner as the ES PRV, or should I only base decisions on what the YM channels are doing ?

Me thinks me is starting to overreact to YM PRV. After all, it is relatively thin compared to ES.
 
Quote from northchuck1:

I know you're not supposed to watch your P&L,

Don't entirely get SCT vs. exit/re-enter.

Any and all comments welcome.
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I don't mean this to come off too preachy, but the very fact you are trying to trade in some fashion (sim or live) is undermining your efforts in learning this method.

I bet there is not a single follower of this thread that hasn't ignored the advice not to trade and simply focus on "seeing" the method develop and unfold. Further I bet every one of us who ignored this advice really wished we hadn't. Simply put, if you are focused on points and profits you are not focused on context, sequences and WMCN and knowing at all times what the right side of the market is. Know this and you will never worry again about the P&L.

Just random thoughts of the Guava.
 
Quote from northchuck1:

Am I supposed to react to YM PRV in the same manner as the ES PRV, or should I only base decisions on what the YM channels are doing ?

Me thinks me is starting to overreact to YM PRV. After all, it is relatively thin compared to ES.
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FWIW, there was a lot of bar overlap that part of the day through midday and not much fun. You can always wash and exit. Look at the 10 minute chart that day too. On days like that I always check a few time frames, it helps me keep perspective. Ease up on the YM for now, use it to help annotate the ES. If you watch it all the time it's too jumpy. Focus more on the ES, YM only at points of change then back to ES.

Regarding the outside bar (11:10), the YM came back to that level again (11:22) , and at 11:26-:28 looked like it was gonna FTT. That's some fine level trading needing finer tools and quick reversals. So taking a zoomed out look at it and easing up on the YM is probably best here. - EZ
 
March Exercise

What Must Come Next

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1818833">

Let your imagination fly...

(You can start with where it has been)
 

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Quote from Tums:

March Exercise

What Must Come Next

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1818833">

bar 1&2 Increasing red- down channel
bar 3 Decreasing red- look for change
bar 4 Increasing neutral bar- most likely a IBGS/ftt, could be a stall but WMCN answered that
bar 5&6 Decreasing black-WMCN after an ftt of a down channel- looking for another pt 3 down, if it is anything like the last couple days it is in a pennant and time to look at the YM :D
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