Italy Numbers

A

apdxyk

https://www.who.int/nmh/countries/ita_en.pdf

640000 deaths in 2016, => 1748 deaths per day. Average.

https://countrymeters.info/en/Italy

This year – 134824 i 85 days, => 1586 deaths per day. Average.



1. Is www.who.int lying?

2. Is countrymeters.info lying?

I have more numbers and numbers questions, but this is a good start.
Seems like it is impossible to find reliable numbers.

I also tried Germany, the freshest stats I was able to find were for 2017, this way anything can buried i previous years data. Countrymeters just uses a formula, based on previous years averages, not real actual numbers. How do we know that Bergamo is experiencing 4x numbers of deaths for the March compared to the previous year then?

Apparently, the lag and the differences in methodology leave a lot of room for media hype...
 
Everyone comparing today's numbers (in cardinality) to the past is making a classic blunder of statistics. You have to consider annualized percentages.

The current statistics are evolving. You cannot compare today's rate to last year's rate. Remember it is like finance - annualize the current rate if you want to compare (and use a healthy dose of salt to temper your interpretation).

The 4x death rate number is likely annualized. A simple matter of percentages. Statistics should be taught in high school as a mandatory course. By annualizing the current death rate for countries relative to last years biggest killers (heart disease and cancer probably) you'll see that under the assumption nothing changes it is certainly worse.
 
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apdxyk said:
https://www.who.int/nmh/countries/ita_en.pdf

640000 deaths in 2016, => 1748 deaths per day. Average.

https://countrymeters.info/en/Italy

This year – 134824 i 85 days, => 1586 deaths per day. Average.



1. Is www.who.int lying?

2. Is countrymeters.info lying?

I have more numbers and numbers questions, but this is a good start.
Seems like it is impossible to find reliable numbers.

I also tried Germany, the freshest stats I was able to find were for 2017, this way anything can buried i previous years data. Countrymeters just uses a formula, based on previous years averages, not real actual numbers. How do we know that Bergamo is experiencing 4x numbers of deaths for the March compared to the previous year then?

Apparently, the lag and the differences in methodology leave a lot of room for media hype...
More...

Yes, the WHO is corrupt and possibly incompetent.


https://twitter.com/x/status/1217043229427761152
 
Think the big number to watch is hospitalization rates. Many people die every year in their homes. If you start flooding hospitals like this virus is doing, it’s not sustainable for any countries healthcare system as is.

Survival rate is pretty good it seems if you get a bed and a ventilator. Get rid of those and the numbers exponentiate.
 
apdxyk said:
How do we know that Bergamo is experiencing 4x numbers of deaths for the March compared to the previous year then?
More...

I have seen the pictures of military trucks carrying the dead out of town, trust me that wasn't a Mardi Gras celebration. Speaking of Mardi Gras, why don't we check the New Orleans numbers?
 
Pekelo said:
I have seen the pictures of military trucks carrying the dead out of town, trust me that wasn't a Mardi Gras celebration. Speaking of Mardi Gras, why don't we check the New Orleans numbers?
More...
People need to question what they hear. You can only trust what you factually see with your own eyes. Did you know that the US government has made 1000+ movie deals with big producers and actors alike. You seriously don't think that some if not all of that videos are roleplay? Unless I see it, it's nothing more then watching a movie. Anyone can post numbers and hire actors.
 
IAlwaysWin said:
Did you know that the US government has made 1000+ movie deals with big producers and actors alike.
More...

I don't see the relevance or the truth in this. But sure, the Italian government hired truck drivers to drive in circles around town.

Or one could just get on the net and read locals' account. Hell a few years back there was some police chase for a terrorist and I was able to read live account from someone who happened to live nearby.

We live in the future. But technology isn't a substitute for common sense.
 
Here's my issue with the reporting of numbers. I don't see anything that tells me the CURRENT CASE COUNT. In other words, how many people have it RIGHT NOW?

The "confirmed case" numbers only keep rising and I feel like they are not subtracting those that have recovered. There should also be another figure (that also keeps rising) that indicates the number of people that have been diagnosed and recovered and now test negative - like Tom Hanks.

I get that "confirmed cases" is an important number, but so are "current active cases". Smaller numbers may get lower ratings and less clicks.

The other stark difference is the general manner of media reporting. Watching BBC vs. US outlets is amazing. BBC is like what we watched in the 80's here - newsworthy, viable data delivered matter of factly. US news requires everything to be "shocking", "deadly", "terrifying" and loads of other adjectives to sensationalize unnecessarily - and they are focused on a few emotional stories rather than giving us actual information.
 
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