They are going with robotics so the chances of them pursuing the immigration route is very slim. If they wanted immigration, they would've done it a long time ago considering that they are right beside 2 countries with the largest population in the world, China and India.
Italian Bonds
- Thread starter dealmaker
- Start date
They are going with robotics so the chances of them pursuing the immigration route is very slim. If they wanted immigration, they would've done it a long time ago considering that they are right beside 2 countries with the largest population in the world, China and India.
I have tremendous respect for our European friends. Nevertheless I believe they are their own worst enemy. The best way to handle the economic difficulties in the lagging nations is to increase production and demand in those countries. This requires investment rather than austerity. A common bond is needed.
I am sorry to say that the Germans are the ones mainly at fault for bad economic policy in the Euro Zone. They are the main ones blocking both the Euro Bond and needed investment in the lagging economies. They are thinking like a housewife worried where the money to pay the light bill is going to come from. They are offering to address economic shortfalls piecemeal by extending credit at high interest. The result will be no different than the result would be if the housewife were to borrow the money to pay the bills. National economies are not like household economies, the restraints are entirely different. Austerity measures don't work for national economies. They haven't worked in the past; they won't work in the future. Austerity results in repeated requests for restructuring and accommodation on loans. The consequence of course is that austerity measures will be imposed on the recipients with no end in sight. Off course emergency economic fires need to be put out. But beyond that, new investment is needed to increase productivity and demand. The ECB needs a free hand to pour Euros at negligible interest into these lagging economies. Interest rates need to be low in the lagging countries, not high. If we have learned nothing else from our 20th Century experience, we have learned this.
The Italians may be doing exactly the right thing, but perhaps not enough of the right thing. The critical factor is how will the new money being added to the economy be used. The Italians' job would be so much easier if EU authorities would formally recognize the need for stepped-up deficit spending in the lagging economies, agree to the Euro Bond, and free the ECB and the lagging economies from counter productive, irrational, and rather absurd constraints.
I am sorry to say that the Germans are the ones mainly at fault for bad economic policy in the Euro Zone. They are the main ones blocking both the Euro Bond and needed investment in the lagging economies. They are thinking like a housewife worried where the money to pay the light bill is going to come from. They are offering to address economic shortfalls piecemeal by extending credit at high interest. The result will be no different than the result would be if the housewife were to borrow the money to pay the bills. National economies are not like household economies, the restraints are entirely different. Austerity measures don't work for national economies. They haven't worked in the past; they won't work in the future. Austerity results in repeated requests for restructuring and accommodation on loans. The consequence of course is that austerity measures will be imposed on the recipients with no end in sight. Off course emergency economic fires need to be put out. But beyond that, new investment is needed to increase productivity and demand. The ECB needs a free hand to pour Euros at negligible interest into these lagging economies. Interest rates need to be low in the lagging countries, not high. If we have learned nothing else from our 20th Century experience, we have learned this.
The Italians may be doing exactly the right thing, but perhaps not enough of the right thing. The critical factor is how will the new money being added to the economy be used. The Italians' job would be so much easier if EU authorities would formally recognize the need for stepped-up deficit spending in the lagging economies, agree to the Euro Bond, and free the ECB and the lagging economies from counter productive, irrational, and rather absurd constraints.
Last edited:
Italian Growth
The European Commission has slashed its growth forecasts for Italy—just 0.2% for 2019, rather than 1.2%, and 0.8% for 2020, rather than 1.3%. Why? The populist government there. Commission: "While the initial slowdown was largely due to less dynamic world trade, the recent slackening of economic activity is more attributable to sluggish domestic demand, particularly investment, as uncertainty related to the government's policy stance and rising financing costs took its toll." Reuters
The European Commission has slashed its growth forecasts for Italy—just 0.2% for 2019, rather than 1.2%, and 0.8% for 2020, rather than 1.3%. Why? The populist government there. Commission: "While the initial slowdown was largely due to less dynamic world trade, the recent slackening of economic activity is more attributable to sluggish domestic demand, particularly investment, as uncertainty related to the government's policy stance and rising financing costs took its toll." Reuters
I believe Dalio doubled down here
Ok, Italy problem seems to be unresolved, will surface again with swift trade damage to euro bulls. Great catalyst in the pocket for euro bears!
Italy Counts on Army of Number-Crunchers to Win Bad Loan War (Reuters)
MILAN (Reuters) – How do you value a bank loan on the brink of default in an economy flirting with recession? As it prepares to commit to buying billions of euros of such loans in Italy by mid July, U.S. hedge fund Davidson Kempner Capital Management (DKCM) has deployed legions of number crunchers to find out. Their task is fiendishly complicated, with businesses’ survival chances often hinging on the prospects for debt restructurings, turnaround plans, securing new investment or even hiring new managers. But the implications of their work go far beyond the fate of individual borrowers as their success could bolster Italy’s banking system and its economy, the euro zone’s third largest.
MILAN (Reuters) – How do you value a bank loan on the brink of default in an economy flirting with recession? As it prepares to commit to buying billions of euros of such loans in Italy by mid July, U.S. hedge fund Davidson Kempner Capital Management (DKCM) has deployed legions of number crunchers to find out. Their task is fiendishly complicated, with businesses’ survival chances often hinging on the prospects for debt restructurings, turnaround plans, securing new investment or even hiring new managers. But the implications of their work go far beyond the fate of individual borrowers as their success could bolster Italy’s banking system and its economy, the euro zone’s third largest.
Italy’s Intesa Clinches 10 billion Euro Soured Loan Deal with U.S. Hedge Fund (Reuters)
MILAN (Reuters) – Italy’s biggest retail bank Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP.MI) has clinched a deal with U.S. hedge fund Davidson Kempner over 10 billion euros ($11 billion) in problem loans, moving closer to a 2021 target of cutting soured debts to 6% of total lending. In reporting a higher-than-expected net profit for the second quarter, Intesa on Wednesday said it would sell 3 billion euros in so-called ‘unlikely-to-pay’ (UTP) loans to Prelios, a loan recovery specialist owned by the New York-based fund.
MILAN (Reuters) – Italy’s biggest retail bank Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP.MI) has clinched a deal with U.S. hedge fund Davidson Kempner over 10 billion euros ($11 billion) in problem loans, moving closer to a 2021 target of cutting soured debts to 6% of total lending. In reporting a higher-than-expected net profit for the second quarter, Intesa on Wednesday said it would sell 3 billion euros in so-called ‘unlikely-to-pay’ (UTP) loans to Prelios, a loan recovery specialist owned by the New York-based fund.