Itâs 2008. The U.S. Has Dragged the World into a Depression.
- Thread starter SouthAmerica
- Start date
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April 14, 2008
SouthAmerica: Actually Cesko might be right about that one. The $ 70 trillion estimate it was done about 3 or 4 years ago, but today when we take in consideration the declining importance of the US dollar in world markets in the coming years plus the inflation that is under way the newly adjusted figure probably will approach the US$ 100 trillion in new liabilities that it will be coming due very soon.
Sorry Cesko I underestimated the real liabilities that it will hit the United States like a Hurricane category 10.
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April 14, 2008
SouthAmerica: Actually Cesko might be right about that one. The $ 70 trillion estimate it was done about 3 or 4 years ago, but today when we take in consideration the declining importance of the US dollar in world markets in the coming years plus the inflation that is under way the newly adjusted figure probably will approach the US$ 100 trillion in new liabilities that it will be coming due very soon.
Sorry Cesko I underestimated the real liabilities that it will hit the United States like a Hurricane category 10.
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS2fI2p9iVs
$175K debt for every American (not including any personal debt)
Need to invest $58 trillion now(2004) to cover future liabilities
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-16u9x3tfE
David M. Walker (former) Comptroller General of the United States (the USAâs chief accountability officer) says the US Government Debt is an implicit mortgage of $175,000 for each American and more than $400,000 for each American household.
Unlike a typical mortgage thereâs no house to back this.
Instead America is mortgaging its future, its children, and its grand children. David Walker also says that if the United States were a company it would be bankrupt. The scariest thing for America is its debt is so big - even if the budget was balanced tomorrow the debt interest would still grow by $2 - $3 trillion per year. Spending has to stop immediately and other restructuring needs to take place.
Incidentally National Debt as a % of GDP was actually higher in 1996 than it was in 2006. Between 1982 and 1996 it rose from low 30s% to high 60s%.
If you haven't already read this book and you actually care about this country's future then pay the $10 for this book(you can find it on Amazon), it will be the most important one you read this year.
"Where Does the Money Go?: Your Guided Tour to the Federal Budget Crisis by Scott Bittle "
Interestingly Dave walker left to head the Petesron Foundation to further educate the US public about this impending fiscal crisis. Peterson has endorsed McCain.
$175K debt for every American (not including any personal debt)
Need to invest $58 trillion now(2004) to cover future liabilities
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-16u9x3tfE
David M. Walker (former) Comptroller General of the United States (the USAâs chief accountability officer) says the US Government Debt is an implicit mortgage of $175,000 for each American and more than $400,000 for each American household.
Unlike a typical mortgage thereâs no house to back this.
Instead America is mortgaging its future, its children, and its grand children. David Walker also says that if the United States were a company it would be bankrupt. The scariest thing for America is its debt is so big - even if the budget was balanced tomorrow the debt interest would still grow by $2 - $3 trillion per year. Spending has to stop immediately and other restructuring needs to take place.
Incidentally National Debt as a % of GDP was actually higher in 1996 than it was in 2006. Between 1982 and 1996 it rose from low 30s% to high 60s%.
If you haven't already read this book and you actually care about this country's future then pay the $10 for this book(you can find it on Amazon), it will be the most important one you read this year.
"Where Does the Money Go?: Your Guided Tour to the Federal Budget Crisis by Scott Bittle "
Interestingly Dave walker left to head the Petesron Foundation to further educate the US public about this impending fiscal crisis. Peterson has endorsed McCain.
.
April 15, 2008
SouthAmerica: People who react like this: âShow me $70 trillion figure source you fucking liar.â
In my opinion, they are Pathetic, and they are desperate on their attempt to hide the truth, as if by calling people names then the massive problems would go away.
After Cesko accused me of being a liar about the $ 70 trillion dollars of cumulative outstanding debt that the US government has coming due in the coming years, just as a curiosity I made the following search on Google â$ 70 trillion dollarsâ - (By the way, I know where I got my original information and it was a reliable source.)
That was a simple search and I got 757 entries as a result of that search and most of them had something to do with the cumulative outstanding debt of the United States.
I donât believe that all the people who wrote all these information were lying as Cesko suggested, anyway here are some examples from the Google search:
Among the Google result entries I found something that I had posted a few years ago. On 28 Aug 2005 I posted the following information on the Financial Times Forum (UK) regarding the US government cumulative outstanding debt âAlan Greenspan a legacy of debt during his 18 year watchâ by Ricardo C. Amaral.
On that article I mentioned the $ 70 trillion US dollar US debt. You can read it at:
http://comment.ft.com/2/OpenTopic?a=tpc&s=646099322&f=851094803&m=165105433&p=2
*****
From another entry here I am quoting from a letter that Ron Paul supporters were sending to people in Iowa before the Iowa Caucus in January 3rd, 2008.
ââ¦Today the Federal Government is over 9 trillion dollars in debt, and has obligated itself to spend over 70 trillion dollars in future paymentsâ¦.â
Ron Paul 2008 presidential Campaign
Source: Ron Paul Forums.com
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=42739
*****
Here is another example that someone published today I am quoting only parts of this article.
US Economic Meltdown - Part 1
The Problem
by Gaurang Bhatt, MD
April 15, 2008
Presidents Reagan, Bush Sr., Clinton and Bush Jr. jointly increased the national debt by over six trillion dollars. Clinton by passing NAFTA and accelerating the de-industrialization of America started the movement of manufacturing jobs to countries with cheap labor and no environmental laws. The technology bubble blown by Greenspanâs reckless policies led to overbuilding of fiber-optic transnational cables. Manufacturing which had migrated to Mexico left North America for China and services for India.
The seeds of stagflation were sown to undo the Herculean efforts of taming inflation by honest Volcker. The collapse of the tech bubble and the dastardly 9-11 terrorist attack brought the economy to its knees and one trick pony Greenspan, the enfant terrible, resorted to his favorite nefarious pastime by blowing another bubble (real estate). He kept the Fed Funds rate at 1% to jumpstart the economy and rescue banks from the Argentinean bankruptcy and default. He had done the same during the Russian default to help LTCM hedge fund and brokerages in the late nineties.
â¦The sub-prime mess arose because Bush Jr. boasted about making America a homeownerâs society. Financial institutions had learnt to securitize home mortgages, credit card and automobile loans receivables and sell them to high yield hungry investors like pension plans, hedge funds and European and Chinese banks and insurance companies with the connivance of equally greedy and irresponsible rating agencies (Moodyâs, S&P, Fitch etc. graded them as triple A) and monoline insurers (FGIC, MBIA, Ambac etc.) who insured them without setting up adequate reserves for loan losses. Mortgage brokers and lending institutions executives desiring large commissions and big year end bonuses encouraged borrowers to fudge or falsify income data and abandoned due diligence.
â¦Structured Investment Vehicles which were off the books and balance sheets like the two trillion dollar cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars which donât figure in the national budget and its deficit will have to be put back on the balance sheet books of financial institutions. The losses they have taken so far (150 billion) are a mere tip of the iceberg. Eventually they may amount to half to one trillion. In addition the losses reduce bank capital and restrain commercial lending which is the lubricant of the economy. The US government is so much in hock that the top Federal employee (comptroller of the currency David Walker) has been shouting from rooftops that we are heading for bankruptcy and mortgaging our childrenâs future. The unfunded government liabilities over the next 50+ years are 70 trillion dollars. The financial institutions have a derivative exposure of nearly 500 trillion dollars.
No wonder the credit markets have clogged up and Bernanke is slashing rates every few days. He seems to have forgotten that no matter how much you flog a dead horse it wonât get up and run.
The government, similar agencies and corporations have been funding their money needs with short term paper in the money market instead of long term bonds to keep their interest expense low. Last week the Port Authority of New York which owns bridges, ports and toll roads in New York and is not a credit risk, was compelled to pay an interest rate of 20% per annum to finance it short term money needs.
Many municipalities and hospitals have lost access to borrowing money.
The above is Page 1 of 4 you can read the rest of the article at:
http://www.boloji.com/rt3/rt292.htm
*****
Here is another interesting article and it shows how the US economy it will not be able to generate the cash flow necessary to fund its debt that it is coming due.
I just quoted a few parts of the article as follows:
CRACK-UP BOOM, PART III: Escape From the Dollar!
by Ty Andros
June 21, 2007
Financial Sense
â¦The common thing in both stories is that these foreign dollar holding entities had accepted dollars which they are fully aware are being printed like toilet paper, for their exports to the United States. They exchanged hard goods which could not be printed for âPAPERâ ones, which could be and are. They then recycled these dollars into treasury bonds of which they are fully aware they will be paid back in dollars that are worth far less then the ones they were originally paid in. They even accepted the guaranteed confiscation inherent in them.
â¦The task of exiting is enormous. China, Japan and other Asian nations hold over $4.5 trillion dollars of foreign exchange reserves, and that doesnât count the money in private hands. The Middle East and Russia represent at least another 2.5 Trillion dollars: Central Europe and Switzerland have got to be at least another 5+ Trillion dollars. The definition of a Billion dollars is enormous and inconceivable; the definition of a Trillion is indefinable. This is a process that will take years or a decade, barring a debacle which is always possible when you are dealing with the irresponsible rascals that control the US government.
â¦They are sending the US Congress an important message. Will they listen? They understand where the game is headed as the United States economy is faced with dealing with 70 trillion dollars worth of future obligations and must pay for it with an economy that is 13 trillion dollars in size but makes barely 3 percent growth if you believe the phony inflation numbers, and no growth if you believe the headline CPI (Consumer price index) and PPI (producer price index).
Anyone who invests based on the core numbers is insane, so you can call most of Wall Street insane, as this weekâs TERRIBLE CPI and PPI reports were heralded as demonstrating receding inflation based on the core numbers. Take a look at the latest CPI report:
â¦Letâs do some math: 13 trillion dollars making 3% a year is generating approximately 390 billion dollars a year in income. The Federal Debt that is officially recognized at about 9.5 trillion dollars at 5% interest requires 475 billion dollars of interest a year. This debt number does not include state, municipal and private debt obligations, which push the total owed to over 30 trillion dollars, so now the required debt service is 1.475 trillion dollars of interest owed. An economy making 390 billion dollars a year will take âHUNDREDS OF YEARS TO PAY OFF THIS AMOUNT OF DEBTâ, even if the compounded interest payments are not added in. Anyone who really knows the extent of the unfunded liabilities knows the numbers above are very conservative.
There is no way you can make this math work; add in the unfunded entitlements and theft of Social Security and Medicare trust funds by the âPUBLIC SERVANTSâ and there is only one conclusion you can come to! GET OUT. Why is the dollar not cratering?
Because no one is going to yell âFIREâ in the theatre. They are not going to immediately try to exchange dollars for another currency; they canât! The dollar dwarfs the float in them all. They have to buy something that will just reprice in the disintegrating dollar. Stocks, real estate, fine art, anything that canât be printed by the public servant PIRATES.
The smartest of them (dollar holders) are going to quietly get out of their seats and head for the exits as quietly as they can and without confrontation with those brilliant boys and girls in Washington DC (mental pygmies, lawyers are economically illiterate).
They are going to exchange all that âsoon to be worthlessâ paper with someone who doesnât yet realize what the game isâ¦.
Author: Ty Andros
Editor of TraderView.com
You can read the entire article plus Part 1 and 2 of the series then go to:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/andros/2007/0621.html
.
April 15, 2008
SouthAmerica: People who react like this: âShow me $70 trillion figure source you fucking liar.â
In my opinion, they are Pathetic, and they are desperate on their attempt to hide the truth, as if by calling people names then the massive problems would go away.
After Cesko accused me of being a liar about the $ 70 trillion dollars of cumulative outstanding debt that the US government has coming due in the coming years, just as a curiosity I made the following search on Google â$ 70 trillion dollarsâ - (By the way, I know where I got my original information and it was a reliable source.)
That was a simple search and I got 757 entries as a result of that search and most of them had something to do with the cumulative outstanding debt of the United States.
I donât believe that all the people who wrote all these information were lying as Cesko suggested, anyway here are some examples from the Google search:
Among the Google result entries I found something that I had posted a few years ago. On 28 Aug 2005 I posted the following information on the Financial Times Forum (UK) regarding the US government cumulative outstanding debt âAlan Greenspan a legacy of debt during his 18 year watchâ by Ricardo C. Amaral.
On that article I mentioned the $ 70 trillion US dollar US debt. You can read it at:
http://comment.ft.com/2/OpenTopic?a=tpc&s=646099322&f=851094803&m=165105433&p=2
*****
From another entry here I am quoting from a letter that Ron Paul supporters were sending to people in Iowa before the Iowa Caucus in January 3rd, 2008.
ââ¦Today the Federal Government is over 9 trillion dollars in debt, and has obligated itself to spend over 70 trillion dollars in future paymentsâ¦.â
Ron Paul 2008 presidential Campaign
Source: Ron Paul Forums.com
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=42739
*****
Here is another example that someone published today I am quoting only parts of this article.
US Economic Meltdown - Part 1
The Problem
by Gaurang Bhatt, MD
April 15, 2008
Presidents Reagan, Bush Sr., Clinton and Bush Jr. jointly increased the national debt by over six trillion dollars. Clinton by passing NAFTA and accelerating the de-industrialization of America started the movement of manufacturing jobs to countries with cheap labor and no environmental laws. The technology bubble blown by Greenspanâs reckless policies led to overbuilding of fiber-optic transnational cables. Manufacturing which had migrated to Mexico left North America for China and services for India.
The seeds of stagflation were sown to undo the Herculean efforts of taming inflation by honest Volcker. The collapse of the tech bubble and the dastardly 9-11 terrorist attack brought the economy to its knees and one trick pony Greenspan, the enfant terrible, resorted to his favorite nefarious pastime by blowing another bubble (real estate). He kept the Fed Funds rate at 1% to jumpstart the economy and rescue banks from the Argentinean bankruptcy and default. He had done the same during the Russian default to help LTCM hedge fund and brokerages in the late nineties.
â¦The sub-prime mess arose because Bush Jr. boasted about making America a homeownerâs society. Financial institutions had learnt to securitize home mortgages, credit card and automobile loans receivables and sell them to high yield hungry investors like pension plans, hedge funds and European and Chinese banks and insurance companies with the connivance of equally greedy and irresponsible rating agencies (Moodyâs, S&P, Fitch etc. graded them as triple A) and monoline insurers (FGIC, MBIA, Ambac etc.) who insured them without setting up adequate reserves for loan losses. Mortgage brokers and lending institutions executives desiring large commissions and big year end bonuses encouraged borrowers to fudge or falsify income data and abandoned due diligence.
â¦Structured Investment Vehicles which were off the books and balance sheets like the two trillion dollar cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars which donât figure in the national budget and its deficit will have to be put back on the balance sheet books of financial institutions. The losses they have taken so far (150 billion) are a mere tip of the iceberg. Eventually they may amount to half to one trillion. In addition the losses reduce bank capital and restrain commercial lending which is the lubricant of the economy. The US government is so much in hock that the top Federal employee (comptroller of the currency David Walker) has been shouting from rooftops that we are heading for bankruptcy and mortgaging our childrenâs future. The unfunded government liabilities over the next 50+ years are 70 trillion dollars. The financial institutions have a derivative exposure of nearly 500 trillion dollars.
No wonder the credit markets have clogged up and Bernanke is slashing rates every few days. He seems to have forgotten that no matter how much you flog a dead horse it wonât get up and run.
The government, similar agencies and corporations have been funding their money needs with short term paper in the money market instead of long term bonds to keep their interest expense low. Last week the Port Authority of New York which owns bridges, ports and toll roads in New York and is not a credit risk, was compelled to pay an interest rate of 20% per annum to finance it short term money needs.
Many municipalities and hospitals have lost access to borrowing money.
The above is Page 1 of 4 you can read the rest of the article at:
http://www.boloji.com/rt3/rt292.htm
*****
Here is another interesting article and it shows how the US economy it will not be able to generate the cash flow necessary to fund its debt that it is coming due.
I just quoted a few parts of the article as follows:
CRACK-UP BOOM, PART III: Escape From the Dollar!
by Ty Andros
June 21, 2007
Financial Sense
â¦The common thing in both stories is that these foreign dollar holding entities had accepted dollars which they are fully aware are being printed like toilet paper, for their exports to the United States. They exchanged hard goods which could not be printed for âPAPERâ ones, which could be and are. They then recycled these dollars into treasury bonds of which they are fully aware they will be paid back in dollars that are worth far less then the ones they were originally paid in. They even accepted the guaranteed confiscation inherent in them.
â¦The task of exiting is enormous. China, Japan and other Asian nations hold over $4.5 trillion dollars of foreign exchange reserves, and that doesnât count the money in private hands. The Middle East and Russia represent at least another 2.5 Trillion dollars: Central Europe and Switzerland have got to be at least another 5+ Trillion dollars. The definition of a Billion dollars is enormous and inconceivable; the definition of a Trillion is indefinable. This is a process that will take years or a decade, barring a debacle which is always possible when you are dealing with the irresponsible rascals that control the US government.
â¦They are sending the US Congress an important message. Will they listen? They understand where the game is headed as the United States economy is faced with dealing with 70 trillion dollars worth of future obligations and must pay for it with an economy that is 13 trillion dollars in size but makes barely 3 percent growth if you believe the phony inflation numbers, and no growth if you believe the headline CPI (Consumer price index) and PPI (producer price index).
Anyone who invests based on the core numbers is insane, so you can call most of Wall Street insane, as this weekâs TERRIBLE CPI and PPI reports were heralded as demonstrating receding inflation based on the core numbers. Take a look at the latest CPI report:
â¦Letâs do some math: 13 trillion dollars making 3% a year is generating approximately 390 billion dollars a year in income. The Federal Debt that is officially recognized at about 9.5 trillion dollars at 5% interest requires 475 billion dollars of interest a year. This debt number does not include state, municipal and private debt obligations, which push the total owed to over 30 trillion dollars, so now the required debt service is 1.475 trillion dollars of interest owed. An economy making 390 billion dollars a year will take âHUNDREDS OF YEARS TO PAY OFF THIS AMOUNT OF DEBTâ, even if the compounded interest payments are not added in. Anyone who really knows the extent of the unfunded liabilities knows the numbers above are very conservative.
There is no way you can make this math work; add in the unfunded entitlements and theft of Social Security and Medicare trust funds by the âPUBLIC SERVANTSâ and there is only one conclusion you can come to! GET OUT. Why is the dollar not cratering?
Because no one is going to yell âFIREâ in the theatre. They are not going to immediately try to exchange dollars for another currency; they canât! The dollar dwarfs the float in them all. They have to buy something that will just reprice in the disintegrating dollar. Stocks, real estate, fine art, anything that canât be printed by the public servant PIRATES.
The smartest of them (dollar holders) are going to quietly get out of their seats and head for the exits as quietly as they can and without confrontation with those brilliant boys and girls in Washington DC (mental pygmies, lawyers are economically illiterate).
They are going to exchange all that âsoon to be worthlessâ paper with someone who doesnât yet realize what the game isâ¦.
Author: Ty Andros
Editor of TraderView.com
You can read the entire article plus Part 1 and 2 of the series then go to:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/andros/2007/0621.html
.
'Manufacturing which had migrated to Mexico left North America for China and services for India.'
people with these arguments should ask to where are the current residents of US working and how are they making their living.
How much is unemployment rate in US or any small state region as a whole. What has been the average economic growth since the NAFTA and WTO type agreements were put into place.
If exporting jobs to overseas would have left US citizens unemployed then by now lots of problems would have occured in terms of riots and social disturbences.
The problem of US is $10T debt and 75% of it is owed to US citizens and corporations. 25% is owed to Chineses, Japs, UK, Dutch and others. Putting a social healthcare can result in another $1T/year of expenditure to the government.
The only way out for US is to keep on devaluing the dollar and wiping off this debt in the REAL terms. In 2001 US to Canadian Dollar was 1.56 and today it is 1.02 and around. This means 50% of the debt has been written off already when looked from 2001 numbers. That is why US government keeps on piling the debt so that they can devalue out of it later on.
US also has hope that in 10 years economies of China, India, Brazil etc. will rise up so much that they will have huge backlog orders for big Boeing Jets, Supercomputers, Communication Satellites, Green Automobiles, Medical Operating Tools and Equiptments, heavy machinery etc. This may help write off the trade imbalance and help the financial bottomlines.
people with these arguments should ask to where are the current residents of US working and how are they making their living.
How much is unemployment rate in US or any small state region as a whole. What has been the average economic growth since the NAFTA and WTO type agreements were put into place.
If exporting jobs to overseas would have left US citizens unemployed then by now lots of problems would have occured in terms of riots and social disturbences.
The problem of US is $10T debt and 75% of it is owed to US citizens and corporations. 25% is owed to Chineses, Japs, UK, Dutch and others. Putting a social healthcare can result in another $1T/year of expenditure to the government.
The only way out for US is to keep on devaluing the dollar and wiping off this debt in the REAL terms. In 2001 US to Canadian Dollar was 1.56 and today it is 1.02 and around. This means 50% of the debt has been written off already when looked from 2001 numbers. That is why US government keeps on piling the debt so that they can devalue out of it later on.
US also has hope that in 10 years economies of China, India, Brazil etc. will rise up so much that they will have huge backlog orders for big Boeing Jets, Supercomputers, Communication Satellites, Green Automobiles, Medical Operating Tools and Equiptments, heavy machinery etc. This may help write off the trade imbalance and help the financial bottomlines.
'Because no one is going to yell âFIREâ in the theatre.'
SA there are lots of folks who are yelling FIRE and for a while.
What are your suggesstions as to what US government should do to balance its books or reduce its nonfunded current and future libilites.
Easy to point fingers at the problems but hard to suggest solutions, let alone find one.
SA there are lots of folks who are yelling FIRE and for a while.
What are your suggesstions as to what US government should do to balance its books or reduce its nonfunded current and future libilites.
Easy to point fingers at the problems but hard to suggest solutions, let alone find one.
.
April 15, 2008
SouthAmerica: Cesko here is another article about the future of the US economy.
This is where a big chunk of the $ 70 trillion dollars in coming US liabilities is going to be invested.
And one of the most promising businesses in the United States is the cremation business.
*****
âHealthcare system unprepared for aging boomers, study findsâ
The federal report predicts shortages in medical workers, particularly those certified in geriatrics. California's situation is particularly dire.
By Maria L. La Ganga, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
Los Angeles Times - April 15, 2008
ââ¦The first of the 78 million baby boomers will turn 65 in three years. By 2030, all will have hit that milestone, and the number of adults 65 and older will have almost doubled -- from 37 million in 2005.
The institute report said that there were 7,128 certified geriatricians today, and that the nation would need 36,000 by 2030â¦.â
You can read the entire article at:
http://www.latimes.com/features/health/medicine/la-na-health15apr15,1,1627164.story
.
April 15, 2008
SouthAmerica: Cesko here is another article about the future of the US economy.
This is where a big chunk of the $ 70 trillion dollars in coming US liabilities is going to be invested.
And one of the most promising businesses in the United States is the cremation business.
*****
âHealthcare system unprepared for aging boomers, study findsâ
The federal report predicts shortages in medical workers, particularly those certified in geriatrics. California's situation is particularly dire.
By Maria L. La Ganga, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
Los Angeles Times - April 15, 2008
ââ¦The first of the 78 million baby boomers will turn 65 in three years. By 2030, all will have hit that milestone, and the number of adults 65 and older will have almost doubled -- from 37 million in 2005.
The institute report said that there were 7,128 certified geriatricians today, and that the nation would need 36,000 by 2030â¦.â
You can read the entire article at:
http://www.latimes.com/features/health/medicine/la-na-health15apr15,1,1627164.story
.