.
April 11, 2008
SouthAmerica: Just a Reminder: It is worth reading the enclosed article that I wrote in November/December 2004 making an economic forecast through the end of 2008.
I wrote the enclosed article right after the November 2004 presidential election and the article was finally published in February 2005. My mindset has not changed since that time. Maybe you will find interesting that particular article, since I wrote the article from the point of view of November 2008; forecasting the coming worldwide economic depression.
Published on February 13, 2005 on Brazzil magazine.
Original title: âThe First Great Depression of the New Millenniumâ
Brazzil's editor changed the title to:
Itâs 2008. The U.S. Has Dragged the World into a Depression.
By Ricardo C. Amaral
http://www.brazzilmag.com/content/view/1424/49/
*****
Itâs 2008. The US Has Dragged the World into a Depression.
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
Brazzil magazine
Sunday, 13 February 2005
Today, Brazil and most South American countries in general are disconnecting from the United States economy, and at the same time they are making new strong connections to the economies of such countries as China, India, and Russia.
Since I wrote a letter to the president of the European Central Bank in December 2001 giving him the reasons why Brazil should adopt the Euro as its new currency, most of my predictions came to past, and since then the US dollar has declined in value against the Euro by 67 percent. (The Brasilians newspaper published that letter in March 2002.)
Today, wealthy Brazilians still have billions of dollars invested here in the United States. Most of these investors probably will lose a large part of their investments in the coming years, because they will not take their money out of the US, and they refuse to believe in the coming melting down of the US dollar and US economy.
Following is an example of the type of newspaper article that they will be reading at the time of the next United States presidential election in November of 2008.
Headlines - October 31, 2008
Here we are one week away from the 2008 United States presidential election. What a ride Americans, and the rest of the world had in the second term of the Bush administration. Some people did not believe it was possible for George W. Bush to do a worse job on his second term, than he did in his first.
A number of events came together to form the perfect storm that pushed the globe into a worldwide depression. The current worldwide depression is getting worse by the day, and it is having a more profound impact than the depression of the 1930âs.
Today, some mainstream economists have identified George W. Bush and his administration as the culprits responsible for setting the spark that caused the meltdown of the global economy.
The entire fiasco started in November of 2000, with the conclusion of the American presidential election, when the US Supreme Court selected George W. Bush as the new president of the United States.
If there were a similar election in any country in Asia, in South America, or in Africa, I am sure that the United States mainstream media would characterize the event as a âcoup d'état.â
A Major Turning Point in US History
The terrorist attack of September 11, 2001, had a profound impact in the United States. The attack did not destroy only some property, and over 3,000 human lives; it also destroyed the soul of the American system.
The Constitution of the United States with its Bill of Rights were the soul of the American system, and had served well the needs of the American people for over 220 years. But during the years of the Bush administration, I was sorry to see the American people allowing the destruction of such a great document in the name of fighting terrorism.
Benjamin Franklin, one of the founding fathers of the US nation, once said: "Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety."
But over time Americans forgot the teachings of this great American, and since September 11, 2001 the US government took many measures that destroyed the American soulâincluding the adoption of the US Patriot Act, and the formation of Homeland Security with its special powers.
Osama bin Laden - A New Living Legend
Before September 11, 2001, most people had never heard of Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaeda. After 9/11 he became a legend, and a hero to the Arab world in a similar way that the revolutionary Ernesto Che Guevara (1928-1967) became a legend in the Americas.
Osama bin Laden had fought against the Russians, and he had helped the Afghan people destroy, and discredit the Soviet war machine - in the Afghanistan War - soon after that the Soviet Empire collapsed.
Many people also admired him for his daring planning and spectacular implementation of the September 11, 2001, attacks inside the United States. (That kind of event is supposed to happen only in Hollywood movies.)
When Actual Performance Doesnât Count
In November of 2004, the world was shocked to find out that the American people had re-elect George W. Bush. Among other things George W. Bush and his close circle of advisers had placed the United States on a very delicate international position when the United States attacked Iraq.
The reasons given to the international community of why the United States had to go to war against Iraq, turned out to be completely wrong. After looking for two years, the Americans never found the âWeapons of Mass Destructionâ that they claimed Saddam Hussein had at the time of the invasion in March of 2003.
Remember the American people (59 million Americans, about 27 percent of the total eligible voters in the US) voted to keep George W. Bush in power despite his terrible performance during his first term. They also gave him complete control of the American government with a Republican majority in the House of Representatives and in the Senate. That was history repeating itself, and it was the 1920âs all over again.
George W. Bush followed the footsteps of two other prior Republican presidents - Ronald Reagan, and of his father George H. W. Bush. The Ronald Reagan years established a new mindset for the Republican Party: the level of âDebt Doesnât Matter,â and they thought the US government could get away with a reckless policy of large deficit spending with no end in sight.
During the years of the Bush administration - from 2001 to 2008 - the United States finances were completely out of control, and the United States had been borrowing around 89 percent of the savings of the entire world - year after year.
For anyone to understand what the US government was really doing in terms of its finances during the Bush administration, you had to study what happened in similar cases to corporations such as: Enron, WorldCom, and Global Crossing - massive administrative mismanagement, and deception.
The Money Pit
To put the American fiasco in perspective, we have to put the spotlight on the United States governmentâs cumulative national debt.
The cumulative US national debts were only $ 930 billion dollars as of December 31, 1980 - right before Ronald Reagan became president of the United States.
Since then, the US national debt has increased to an estimated $ 13 trillion dollars as of September 30, 2008 - that figure does not include all the other US government unfunded outstanding liabilities conservatively estimated at US$ 70 trillion dollars.
Here is the detail of the additions to the US national debt by president:
Ronald Reagan (8 years in office) added to US debt $ 1.7 trillion dollars.
George Bush Senior (4 years in office) added to US debt $ 1.5 trillion dollars.
Bill Clinton (8 years in office) added to US debt $ 1.6 trillion dollars.
George Bush Junior (first term, 4 years in office) added to US debt $ 1.8 trillion dollars.
George Bush Junior (second term, 4 years in office) added to US debt $ 5 trillion dollars.
Since December 31, 1980 the Republican presidents added $ 10 trillion dollars to the cumulative US national debt, and the Democratic president added $ 1.6 trillion dollars. The Republican administrations added 87 percent of the new US national debt, and the Democratic administration added only 13 percent of the new debt.
All Republican presidents starting with Ronald Reagan have had a complete disregard for sound long-term economic policy, and how their current policies would affect future generations. All these Republican presidents had one thing in common: they did run a very large credit card bill during their administrations, and they were leaving all these debt to future American generations to pay. Since December 31, 1980 the United States had only one fiscally responsible president - former president Bill Clinton - a democrat.
Article to continue below â Part 1 of 2
.
April 11, 2008
SouthAmerica: Just a Reminder: It is worth reading the enclosed article that I wrote in November/December 2004 making an economic forecast through the end of 2008.
I wrote the enclosed article right after the November 2004 presidential election and the article was finally published in February 2005. My mindset has not changed since that time. Maybe you will find interesting that particular article, since I wrote the article from the point of view of November 2008; forecasting the coming worldwide economic depression.
Published on February 13, 2005 on Brazzil magazine.
Original title: âThe First Great Depression of the New Millenniumâ
Brazzil's editor changed the title to:
Itâs 2008. The U.S. Has Dragged the World into a Depression.
By Ricardo C. Amaral
http://www.brazzilmag.com/content/view/1424/49/
*****
Itâs 2008. The US Has Dragged the World into a Depression.
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
Brazzil magazine
Sunday, 13 February 2005
Today, Brazil and most South American countries in general are disconnecting from the United States economy, and at the same time they are making new strong connections to the economies of such countries as China, India, and Russia.
Since I wrote a letter to the president of the European Central Bank in December 2001 giving him the reasons why Brazil should adopt the Euro as its new currency, most of my predictions came to past, and since then the US dollar has declined in value against the Euro by 67 percent. (The Brasilians newspaper published that letter in March 2002.)
Today, wealthy Brazilians still have billions of dollars invested here in the United States. Most of these investors probably will lose a large part of their investments in the coming years, because they will not take their money out of the US, and they refuse to believe in the coming melting down of the US dollar and US economy.
Following is an example of the type of newspaper article that they will be reading at the time of the next United States presidential election in November of 2008.
Headlines - October 31, 2008
Here we are one week away from the 2008 United States presidential election. What a ride Americans, and the rest of the world had in the second term of the Bush administration. Some people did not believe it was possible for George W. Bush to do a worse job on his second term, than he did in his first.
A number of events came together to form the perfect storm that pushed the globe into a worldwide depression. The current worldwide depression is getting worse by the day, and it is having a more profound impact than the depression of the 1930âs.
Today, some mainstream economists have identified George W. Bush and his administration as the culprits responsible for setting the spark that caused the meltdown of the global economy.
The entire fiasco started in November of 2000, with the conclusion of the American presidential election, when the US Supreme Court selected George W. Bush as the new president of the United States.
If there were a similar election in any country in Asia, in South America, or in Africa, I am sure that the United States mainstream media would characterize the event as a âcoup d'état.â
A Major Turning Point in US History
The terrorist attack of September 11, 2001, had a profound impact in the United States. The attack did not destroy only some property, and over 3,000 human lives; it also destroyed the soul of the American system.
The Constitution of the United States with its Bill of Rights were the soul of the American system, and had served well the needs of the American people for over 220 years. But during the years of the Bush administration, I was sorry to see the American people allowing the destruction of such a great document in the name of fighting terrorism.
Benjamin Franklin, one of the founding fathers of the US nation, once said: "Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety."
But over time Americans forgot the teachings of this great American, and since September 11, 2001 the US government took many measures that destroyed the American soulâincluding the adoption of the US Patriot Act, and the formation of Homeland Security with its special powers.
Osama bin Laden - A New Living Legend
Before September 11, 2001, most people had never heard of Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaeda. After 9/11 he became a legend, and a hero to the Arab world in a similar way that the revolutionary Ernesto Che Guevara (1928-1967) became a legend in the Americas.
Osama bin Laden had fought against the Russians, and he had helped the Afghan people destroy, and discredit the Soviet war machine - in the Afghanistan War - soon after that the Soviet Empire collapsed.
Many people also admired him for his daring planning and spectacular implementation of the September 11, 2001, attacks inside the United States. (That kind of event is supposed to happen only in Hollywood movies.)
When Actual Performance Doesnât Count
In November of 2004, the world was shocked to find out that the American people had re-elect George W. Bush. Among other things George W. Bush and his close circle of advisers had placed the United States on a very delicate international position when the United States attacked Iraq.
The reasons given to the international community of why the United States had to go to war against Iraq, turned out to be completely wrong. After looking for two years, the Americans never found the âWeapons of Mass Destructionâ that they claimed Saddam Hussein had at the time of the invasion in March of 2003.
Remember the American people (59 million Americans, about 27 percent of the total eligible voters in the US) voted to keep George W. Bush in power despite his terrible performance during his first term. They also gave him complete control of the American government with a Republican majority in the House of Representatives and in the Senate. That was history repeating itself, and it was the 1920âs all over again.
George W. Bush followed the footsteps of two other prior Republican presidents - Ronald Reagan, and of his father George H. W. Bush. The Ronald Reagan years established a new mindset for the Republican Party: the level of âDebt Doesnât Matter,â and they thought the US government could get away with a reckless policy of large deficit spending with no end in sight.
During the years of the Bush administration - from 2001 to 2008 - the United States finances were completely out of control, and the United States had been borrowing around 89 percent of the savings of the entire world - year after year.
For anyone to understand what the US government was really doing in terms of its finances during the Bush administration, you had to study what happened in similar cases to corporations such as: Enron, WorldCom, and Global Crossing - massive administrative mismanagement, and deception.
The Money Pit
To put the American fiasco in perspective, we have to put the spotlight on the United States governmentâs cumulative national debt.
The cumulative US national debts were only $ 930 billion dollars as of December 31, 1980 - right before Ronald Reagan became president of the United States.
Since then, the US national debt has increased to an estimated $ 13 trillion dollars as of September 30, 2008 - that figure does not include all the other US government unfunded outstanding liabilities conservatively estimated at US$ 70 trillion dollars.
Here is the detail of the additions to the US national debt by president:
Ronald Reagan (8 years in office) added to US debt $ 1.7 trillion dollars.
George Bush Senior (4 years in office) added to US debt $ 1.5 trillion dollars.
Bill Clinton (8 years in office) added to US debt $ 1.6 trillion dollars.
George Bush Junior (first term, 4 years in office) added to US debt $ 1.8 trillion dollars.
George Bush Junior (second term, 4 years in office) added to US debt $ 5 trillion dollars.
Since December 31, 1980 the Republican presidents added $ 10 trillion dollars to the cumulative US national debt, and the Democratic president added $ 1.6 trillion dollars. The Republican administrations added 87 percent of the new US national debt, and the Democratic administration added only 13 percent of the new debt.
All Republican presidents starting with Ronald Reagan have had a complete disregard for sound long-term economic policy, and how their current policies would affect future generations. All these Republican presidents had one thing in common: they did run a very large credit card bill during their administrations, and they were leaving all these debt to future American generations to pay. Since December 31, 1980 the United States had only one fiscally responsible president - former president Bill Clinton - a democrat.
Article to continue below â Part 1 of 2
.
