It would take an ‘immaculate conception’ to create bear market in stocks right now: analyst

T

trader99

I hate to say this but I actually believe this now. I used to be a bear but now I've been reformed and think this will continue for a while. I know the crash is coming from my own proprietary TA analysis and research. But who knows when. Maybe it could be 1month to as long as 8-9 months away I think.

In the meantime, just go long for the last bit of the melt-up rally.

But if a person like me who was previously bearish now turned bullish then it probably means the top is already in.. who knows..

What ya think?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/it...market-in-stocks-right-now-analyst-2017-10-13
 
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Millionaire said:
Or a Black Swan Unkown Unkown
More...

What would be the Black Swan this time around? Generals fight the last war as they say. So, it's not subprime mortgages, not portfolio insurance, etc. What would be the catalyst for a crash?

In the meantime, stay long and enjoy the rally...
 
trader99 said:
I hate to say this but I actually believe this now. I used to be a bear but now I've been reformed and think this will continue for a while. I know the crash is coming from my own proprietary TA analysis and research. But who knows when. Maybe it could be 1month to as long as 8-9 months away I think.

In the meantime, just go long for the last bit of the melt-up rally.

But if a person like me who was previously bearish now turned bullish then it probably means the top is already in.. who knows..

What ya think?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/it...market-in-stocks-right-now-analyst-2017-10-13
More...

It has already begun.

But, what do I know?
 
trader99 said:
What would be the Black Swan this time around? Generals fight the last war as they say. So, it's not subprime mortgages, not portfolio insurance, etc. What would be the catalyst for a crash?
More...

If we knew what was going to cause it then it wouldn't be a Black swan unkown unkown.
 
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At some point reality has to set in. There may not be a crash, but perhaps there'll be an extended flat-line as earnings are forced to catch up.

I mean multiple expansion can only go so far I would think. What IS a fair PE on NFLX and the like? Its like people have lost sight of the TRUE underlying premise that you are buying a slice of a company when you buy a stock.

That being said, if money continues to pour in... its gotta go somewhere. Low PE value stocks are probably a safe place to go if multiple expansion is unavoidable. Maybe thats why we're seeing the airlines go up.These things have traded forever with PE's below 10.

Honestly, I think it would be easier to sleep at night while still riding the bull by buying anything with a forward PE below 13.

Sector rotation is going to land on LOW PE VALUE very soon.....
 
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