It might take you 100 years to break even

and thats priced in EUR, in $$ terms, fuggedaboutit

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the TLT etf from 160 to 109 , im sure many people just baghold these

TLT is probably a good buy pretty soon - if not really soon. There's no freaking way the Fed can hike as much as the market thinks, and when that turns or when credit spreads blow way out and the Fed has to pivot, you can be sure TLT will begin to price in the first easing (which won't be far away).
 
At this point, that bond is pulling up to par. Most of the negative convexity is gone.

If we get a global recession and rates come down 1%, you may just double your money.

What is the current YTM?
 
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