It is now time to sell sell sell your TLT - Bonds are going to crash

Quote from deadbroke:

LONG position STOP is moved up again to under the August 23 bar @ 105.2 = more profit locked in.
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TLT ... LONG position closed out. Satisfied! :)

Now sidelines.

So, was 8-16-2010 gap-up an exhuastion gap? Island reversal yet to come?

These can be answered in hindsight.
 
Quote from deadbroke:

see the prev. 10-yr yield chart a few posts up for reference.

Yesterday my CALL target was exceeded. The only viable target I have left is the 78.6% retracement level and we are just a hair above that.





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updated - nice pop at my 78.6% Fib level mentioned. And if this is a reversal, both the 161.8% targets also contributed to the reversal.

But we wait for a few days for confirmation.



 
Quote from deadbroke:

They can print all they want, but if investors smell a rat and start going into doubt about the US govt.'s ability to honor said debts, they will DEMAND more yield = CRASH in bond prices.

This has not occurred yet, but the daily talk on CNBC about the new lows in YIELDS is showing clearly where the HERD is.

This is just the type of scene BEAR loves. Hammer one investment category, the HERD bolts for another; then hammer another and they scamper again.

But hehehehehe, what's there to run to AFTER /IF Bond prices collapse?

There be nowhere to go. Investors will feel like the fellow in the video below .....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HiIZLDeMOg0&NR=1
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Further thoughts on the scenario that if if if if TLT has topped, i.e. rates have bottomed ... and rates start shooting north like a rocket ...

will it be because of Inflation .... ?

I don't think so. I think it will be because of fears of US govt. default. As this fear increases due to suspicion and/or a shaken belief in the strength of the govt., the govt. will be forced to pay higher and higher rates to satisfy the fear of default within investor groups.

This higher Yield will attract money from all sorts of locations and will become a sponge and suck money from other sources causing other investment categories to fail by making their debts worthless.

As per the chart I've shown on Yields, this is what I am expecting and is outlined in the CALL earlier in this thread.

Fasten seatbelts :)
 
Quote from deadbroke:

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Further thoughts on the scenario that if if if if TLT has topped, i.e. rates have bottomed ... and rates start shooting north like a rocket ...
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I think they bottomed for now, but i don't believe in a V bottom, so i still think that we can go lower first on the yields and then we should go up....


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Feel that's a buy? Then sell...
http://tradingthecow.blogspot.com
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Quote from retaildaytrader:

Ok elitetraders. I have come here today to infom you it is now time to sell sell sell your TlT. The bond market is going to crash!!!
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This is one of your better calls thus far. Only down about 9%. Well done RDT. Keep up the good work.
 
Quote from retaildaytrader:

I still think the TLT is a short. The problem with bubbles is that you oftentimes know that you are in a bubble, but have no idea when it will end. I knew that technology was in a bubble in 1998 and housing in 2004...I just had no idea when it would end or exactly how far it would go up.

Right now the TLT is off about 5 points or 5-6% from its high. I believe in time I will be redeemed on this call and I would put the target at Aprils low of around 86...
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See what I mean (stated elsewhere) by you contradicting yourself all over the place? (You said elsewhere time and again, you don't care whether your call is right or wrong; its all hilarious entertainment. MORON! (This is why I love long-term charts = the larger picture to ferret out jackasses)

Even if you never get redeemed on your call, i.e. if your call is totally wrong, you would still get high marks for MAKING THE CALL - in a Serengetti wherein from BARON (in whose presence you're always obsequious, maudlin and sycophantic) all the way down to the doorman, one and all think in exactly the same way which BARON calls "having no crystal ball" but better put would be "having no balls" = "only reactive" = "zero-prescience" .... conclusion: always better to be a cock in a densely populated henhouse. Note: you are already doing this in Pattaya but a virtual henhouse is not so shabby.


Foolish man give wife grand piano.
Wise man give wife upright organ.
 
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