It is now time to sell sell sell your TLT - Bonds are going to crash

Take a look at IEF too just for reference.

Unlike TLT, it has taken out the weekly top a few weeks ago.

Not enough weekly/monthly data on IEF either, but its still possible to count 5 waves up on weekly.

This means to me that the current rise from April 9, 2010 is a terminal wave. When it ends, the rally is over and IEF will crash.

I'm just using IEF as a reference to the inverse of bond yields and it does seem to validate my call on the 10-yr yield.

IEF daily chart has a very clear uptrendline. A break of this TL would be IEF = 96.1

:)
 
Quote from deadbroke:

for starters ............

Stock market crashed in 2007

Commodities crashed in 2008

Real estate crashed in 2005

Despite trillions in bailouts and spending none has fully recovered i.e. the tops are still in place.

= D E F L A T I O N

:)
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Yes, and as I had told you, and as the interest rate market suggested yesterday, it's not a good idea to short treasury notes in this environment, especially if the equity market tanks.
 
Temperature readings on the TLT Bond HERD have just arrived. A rectal thermometer was used to confirm the readings.

Bond bulls = 98%

Dec '08 bulls = 99% ( wham boom bam, came the crash 3 days later)

These numbers are courtesy of EWI - orig. numbers from I believe trade-futures.com (Jake Bernstein and co.)

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what does all this mean? ... its one-sided. Whenever the HERD aligns so strongly in one direction, HISTORY has proven the market resolves the other way. Right away or with a lag? The last time it happened the lag was 3 days. Can it be more this time? Sure! Regardless, Defcon 4 alert is ON!!!!

We wait and see. Price is always the final arbiter. :) :)
 
Quote from deadbroke:



We wait and see. Price is always the final arbiter. :) :)
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No question you'll be "right"..... eventually.
However, in the meantime, you might go "dead broke", deadbroke.

:D
 
Quote from Covertibility:

Looks like a shooting star is forming but it's still early in the day. As Zero Hedge says, the bond market has gone full retard.
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Another big up day. If there is reversal by a gap-down, it could also be an ISLAND REVERSAL.

Wait and see. :) :)
 
Quote from deadbroke:

Long STOP is moved up now from under the 7-29 low to under the bar at 8-12 @ 100.8 = more profit locked in.


:)
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LONG position STOP is now moved up again to under the August 17 bar @ 103.88
 
Quote from deadbroke:

Re: The CALL


current 10-yr Yield = 2.688%

expected 10-yr Yield target = 2.554%

somewhere between 2.688% and/or = 2.554%, the BOND CRASH will begin.


Note the high probability of coincident Fibonacci calculations ....

Fibonacci Extension @ 161.8%

Fibonacci Expansion @ 161.8%

elliottwave Wave C = 161.8% x A

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10-yr yield daily chart analysis related to the CALL .....




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current yield = 2.58

my target call = 2.554

jeez, we are so close to that, just a hair ....... :) :D
 
Warning to the bulls:

I got my face ripped off on TBT, thinking that at some point this treasury rally would abate. Today was capitulation day for me and I dumped everything, so just a warning to all you longs, today could be the turnaround day, now that I have given up.
 
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