It is now time to sell sell sell your TLT - Bonds are going to crash

Quote from deadbroke:

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see 3rd last line re: volume breakout above, then see chart above and below for the volume breakout. Real or false? Use thought-ing explained below.


I've added the thick black line on right. To gauge TLT's strength or whether she is going to correct and hammer the short-timers, she must take out this resistance and then the July 1 top. See also the other trendline I've drawn from the April 6 low that TLT is right now coming up against? If she can't take this out, expect a correction.



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updated showing the breakout price bar. TLT still needs to take out the remaining trendline and the TOP.

MANUAL STOP for daily is under the 7-29-2010 low. Realtime users will of course have a different STOP. I don't have RT for these instruments nor do I want it.




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Quote from syswizard:

Be careful with your assumptions: the economy is still distinctly DEFLATIONARY. For bonds to crash, that must change. There is nothing on the horizon to suggest it will change.
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Look at your assumptions first, please ....

(1) For bonds to crash, that must change.

Wrong!

(2) There is nothing on the horizon to suggest it will change

:D :D :D :D This is the standard ET posture, ET being defined as a ship of fools who can't time worth a shit and never see a turn coming and when it does they're the first to get rammed & scamper in accordance with a lion ambush attack
 
When I originally posted this thread, I believed that the crash would not take place immediately, but it might take several weeks to carve out a top before the plunge. Hey, I have been wrong on these things before, but somehow I feel that the TLT right now is at least a sell at these levels.

Crashes occur because there is a lack of buyers and a great many sellers. I believe the bond market is saturated with buyers. The buying power has been exhausted and soon the selling will take place.

Price usually moves down a lot faster then when it goes up. It took us 4 months to reach this point on the TLT, but it may take a week to get back to the same place.

Do your own due diligence my friend...this is only my personal unqualified guess...thanks for your support.
 
Quote from psytrade:

deadbroke - I suggest you read MKC Global's piece - "shorting treasuries a historic sucker bet". I read it when it first came out, quite timely imo.

Look at the date on the article.

Have you ever considered that this treasury rally is a safe way (right now the safest way, it aint austerity either) to clean up the global excess money printing that has already taken place; rather than your other assumption, i.e that the fed needs to print.. etc... They already printed too much money, now they have to get rid of it and get rid of the deflationary effects (yes, the money printing caused excess speculation, production and misalignment in asset classes and global distortions in currencies i.e bubbles). The very thing you are critical of here is what caused the forthcoming deflationary mess in the first place.

Good luck.
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Newbies, other ET-ers pay attention now to what this fellow is saying ... because it is the common denominator of how the HERD thinks .....

shorting treasuries is a sucker bet = treauries can only go up in price = this treasury rally is a safe way

My CALL:

(a) stay Long TLT (or any T-bond). When the Stop is taken out, get the heck out and go to CASH and sidelines. Do NOT go short.

(b) Treasury bond CRASH inevitable. BEAR, by getting everyone solidly into one camp can pinpoint his attack. The timing of this crash can be done right here by using TLT.

(c) My reason for being in this thread is to time the bond crash as best I can. It is most likely the greatest opportunity for a technician EVER, even bigger than the 1929 crash.
 
My CALL .... (August 15, 2010)

(a) stay Long TLT (or any T-bond). When the Stop is taken out, get the heck out and go to CASH and sidelines. Do NOT go short.

(b) Treasury bond CRASH inevitable. BEAR, by getting everyone solidly into one camp can pinpoint his attack. The timing of this crash can be done right here by using TLT.

(c) My reason for being in this thread is to time the bond crash as best I can. It is most likely the greatest opportunity for a technician EVER, even bigger than the 1929 crash.
 
Re: The CALL


current 10-yr Yield = 2.688%

expected 10-yr Yield target = 2.554%

somewhere between 2.688% and/or = 2.554%, the BOND CRASH will begin.


Note the high probability of coincident Fibonacci calculations ....

Fibonacci Extension @ 161.8%

Fibonacci Expansion @ 161.8%

elliottwave Wave C = 161.8% x A

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10-yr yield daily chart analysis related to the CALL .....




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Quote from Arnie:

What part of the economy is deflationary?
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for starters ............

Stock market crashed in 2007

Commodities crashed in 2008

Real estate crashed in 2005

Despite trillions in bailouts and spending none has fully recovered i.e. the tops are still in place.

= D E F L A T I O N

:)
 
TBT LOOKING LIKE a strong buy eah day that goes by.


I am close to buying for a short term bounce.

Bonds are going wild.
 
Quote from deadbroke:


MANUAL STOP for daily is under the 7-29-2010 low. Realtime users will of course have a different STOP. I don't have RT for these instruments nor do I want it.
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Long STOP is moved up now from under the 7-29 low to under the bar at 8-12 @ 100.8 = more profit locked in.

(realtime stop will be much higher. Actually if I had realtime for this, I'd take 50% profits right here on this big gap-up bar and put an approp. stop for the rest of the position. The reason for this is that TLT has run right into the resistance @ 61.8% Fib on Weekly)

:)
 
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