It is IMPOSSIBLE to make money in the markets

[Ripley]

Quote from Cheese:

Some persist in the delusion that their winnings can only be losses of some other individuals who have to be losers (eg ET losers). Is it that their winnings don't taste good enough and so they need to come from ET losing members?

Index futures are a derivative of actual exchange stock indices. Given that index futures are zero sum games, then if every trading individual was a winner then arbitrage would prevent the index becoming badly distorted or tracking way differently to the actual index. But aside from that, there are different classes of users including hedgers who don't need any profit to come from their hedge (ie index futures) if instead it is arising from the stocks they are hedging.

Of course the myth will still stay live and well that only the speculative losses of individuals sustain the gains of winning players.
Such irrationality!

Thats what the exchanges want you to believe Cheese. That there are so many people trading, hedgers, speculators, trillionaire moguls trying to spread the risk around, large corporations who feel that their stock is going to go down (illegal, but insiders since selling it short is just as easy).

But, if you are saying that mutual fund managers would prefer to hedge their portfolio risk by dabbling in the derivative markets, then that has proven to be an inefficient and costly way of managing other peoples money.

OK, there is some form of hedging.. but, don't you think that since they are willing to lose the money and they would end up making some money as a result of not caring about it.

 

[austinp]

Ripley, your points are well made after much careful thought, that is very apparent.

From what I understand, your stance is that only a few professionals make money at trading, thru inside knowledge or market manipulation. I interpet you also mean to say that only professionals make money, while all amateurs lose money.

*

I think we all understand that most people who pass thru the trading profession have a net-loss experience. Some go quickly, some linger for years, but that entire group of net-loss people never make money in the end.

In other words, most people from all walks never make a dime from trading. Agreed? That includes many attempts by "professionals" who have exchange memberships, trade right on the floor, etc. Not just retail traders at home... the percentage of failures encompasses all.

**

There is a smaller group, a small percentage from all walks that do create success, that do find their niche in the market to make consistent, methodical gains. It is obvious you are intelligent and articulate, so I therefore assume you know that some traders do actually make money over the course of time.

Every professional I know began as a newbie = retail trader at some point in their fledgling career. How did they survive? Same as the rest of us who have.

I myself spent many years of mixed results in trading before creating consistent results, month over month. If I posted a one-year performance record, the naysayers would ask for three. If I posted a three-year record, the naysayers would scoff and retort it's only a matter of time before I blow out and give it all back. Am I right or right?

How is it possible to prove a point with performance records when a fixed opinion refuses the possibility of change?

***

I have always said it is a long, hard road to consistent success in this profession. Had I to do it all over again, knowing the end from the beginning, it would have scared me away. Only the process of thinking success was just around the corner kept me in the lengthy, costly quest until that corner was turned.

The mechanics of learning which trades to take and when to exit are far, far easier than learning which trades not to take, when not to trade, when to push thru fear and repress greed, etc.

The real learning curve is self-management of emotions, i.e. personal growth. That's the part which kills most if not all aspiring traders. Need for inside information or ability to manipulate markets would be very handy, but is not necessary. An ability to grow with an open mind and intense level of introspection is paramount for success.

Successful trading is certainly possible, as proven by legions of professional traders who all once began from square one. The facts exist for those who seek them out... while purposeful denial will refute any fact one desires.

I wish you all the best & never anything less. Good luck in your quests toward successful trading and/or your next professional pursuits. See you in other more threads directed toward positive growth :>)

Best Wishes,
Austin

 

[illiquid]

Nice post Austin.

 

[Dustin]

Quote from austinp:

I wish you all the best & never anything less. Good luck in your quests toward successful trading and/or your next professional pursuits. See you in other more threads directed toward positive growth :>)

Best Wishes,
Austin

Good post but...

It's easier for Ripley to ignore posts from profitable traders so don't expect much response. If he can't do it no one can.

 

[Ripley]

Quote from Dustin:


It's easier for Ripley to ignore posts from profitable traders so don't expect much response. If he can't do it no one can.

yeah.. if I can sell my black box signals for $3,000 and risk 0.002% per trade to keep my profitablity for track record purposes, even I can prove my profitability.

 

[Dustin]

Quote from Ripley:

yeah.. if I can sell my black box signals for $3,000 and risk 0.002% per trade to keep my profitablity for track record purposes, even I can prove my profitability.

I thought we were talking about trading, not selling systems.

 

[marketsurfer]

certainly the term "survivorship bias" is understood by the majority here.

although, there may actually be an infinitesimal small number of retail traders who consistently post good performance over a number of market conditions/years, i stand by my contention that "informational advantage" is the key--- and this advantage is simply out of reach for the vast majority of retail traders.

surf

 

[Cheese]

There is no informational barrier for anyone other than being insufficiently willing to give your chosen market dedicated research, study & testing. Amateur traders largely don't expect to do all that.

I have been on "the other side" as it is called at ET and the final barrier has long gone; online electronic trading puts you in the arena with professionals. Naturally once there, amateurs are going to find a myriad of reasons for failing or not doing much more than clamber aboard some sort of 'making a living' treadmill.

The task the amateur sets out upon is always very flawed; its called 'trading for a living'. A professional is entering the market to accumulate, largely unhindered, money. This means 2 things: an accurate methodology and position sizing tactics. If anything the purpose is to ensure that he never has to do anything for a living bar make or increase his own fortune.

 

[marketsurfer]

responding to several PM messages, as a note of clarification:

yes, "informational advantage" can mean many things. I am certainly not talking about anything illegal or unethical. and yes, as an astute elite member pointed out, it is possible for a retail trader, although unlikely, to obtain at certain times.

thanks,

surf

 

[Ripley]

Quote from marketsurfer:

responding to several PM messages, as a note of clarification:

yes, "informational advantage" can mean many things. I am certainly not talking about anything illegal or unethical. and yes, as an astute elite member pointed out, it is possible for a retail trader, although unlikely, to obtain at certain times.

thanks,

surf

How could "informational advantage" be different from just plain out being knowledgeable in how to be a consistently profitable trader? This knowledge could be an insight, foresight or just plain out mental discipline thats going to separate him from the other 99% losers.