It feels like a bottom in BUT !

SammyJ said:
We had a textbook multiple attempts the last week to take out the 3600-3650 area and didnt . Now fear is lifting and people rushing into the stocks down 70-90% . People don’t want to miss out of the buys of a lifetime . In the old days ( the last 30 years ) this would be at or near the bottom and buying many of these you’d make 3-5 times your money in the coming yrs. But is this time different ? Are we staring at a Japan type mkt down 50-70% and sideways for decades? the mkts always come right back after a bear since the 1980’s . Is this time different ? With so many peoples retirements in the mkt is this when the long term cruel bear teaches all a lesson? Nobody since the 1970’s in the mkt has ever been tested . No ones seen their portfolio down for 5-10 yrs . People long term hace only felt a year or 2 of pain then right back up . The fed printing was behind 50% of total returns the last 15 yrs . That’s over . It wood be a fitting 5-10 yr top . Rates near zero , 10’s of millions of Reddit traders gambling for easy money ,house prices skying . Time will tell.
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Memories of the posts all over this board mid-March 2020. You seem to think the NA economies are long term broken and companies don't know how to make money. Let's see what occurs when rate hikes succeed to moderating core inflation to some degree ( guaranteed ) and supply chain issues work themselves out by normal free market forces to some degree ( guaranteed ). Consumers and investors are cash rich right now ( see real stats not what you emotionally think is happening ); they are itching to come out of Covid and get back to doing things.

It's not hard to see what is coming at some point. Well maybe hard if you believe in conspiracy theories. But many traders get caught in a vicious cynical attitude that leads to ideas like the US was entering a Depression in 2009 and a Japan style down turn at the March 2020 bottom. Sure, why not declare June 2022 as another historical doomsday when a ton of companies are P/E 2-12 and supposedly too pricey. Good luck with that you better hope it turns out better then the March 2009 or March 2020 theories. Or my favorite that Toronto real estate was in a housing bubble in 2010.
 
maxinger said:
traders are not interested to know whether this is the bottom or not.

members from eliteinvestors.com should be keen to know.
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I agree, Who cares....where the market bottom is. Traders shouldn't be concerned with that.

Only investors and economists and professors and talking heads on TV...cares about trying to analyze the bottom depths of a bear market. Which, of course, is only crystal clear in hindsight. Which they all try to present so intelligently, and prophetically, just to boost their professional careers. Clowns and bozos and charlatans, all of them.

Trading versus Investing, and Doing versus Talking....are all completely different things.
 
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Nine_Ender said:
Memories of the posts all over this board mid-March 2020. You seem to think the NA economies are long term broken and companies don't know how to make money. Let's see what occurs when rate hikes succeed to moderating core inflation to some degree ( guaranteed ) and supply chain issues work themselves out by normal free market forces to some degree ( guaranteed ). Consumers and investors are cash rich right now ( see real stats not what you emotionally think is happening ); they are itching to come out of Covid and get back to doing things.

It's not hard to see what is coming at some point. Well maybe hard if you believe in conspiracy theories. But many traders get caught in a vicious cynical attitude that leads to ideas like the US was entering a Depression in 2009 and a Japan style down turn at the March 2020 bottom. Sure, why not declare June 2022 as another historical doomsday when a ton of companies are P/E 2-12 and supposedly too pricey. Good luck with that you better hope it turns out better then the March 2009 or March 2020 theories. Or my favorite that Toronto real estate was in a housing bubble in 2010.
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fwiw, my industry saw it's fair share of supply chain problems in the past 6 months -- things seem to be improving. my guess is that margins will be down this quarter but start improving soon.
 
Here is the problem, all the talking heads on cable TV telling us stocks are dirt cheap but, are they? Say XYZ is now trading at $50 with a PE ratio of say 16. Now, with the worsening world economy with recessions likely, all over, we have layoffs, inventory build ups, US consumers buying and spending less with less monies in their pockets. So, that XYZ stock now just earns 25% of previous 3 months with the outlook for the next year even worst. Now, is that PE of 16 cheap? If you adjust the PE ratio based on the latest earnings, it might be a PE of 50 now. So, is XYZ a bargain at $50 when its actual value is probably, just $20 or $10 per share? Stockcharts indicate more declines likely on individual stocks so, do I believe the talking heads on cable TV or the stockcharts and the actual earnings of those companies?
 
SammyJ said:
We had a textbook multiple attempts the last week to take out the 3600-3650 area and didnt . Now fear is lifting and people rushing into the stocks down 70-90% . People don’t want to miss out of the buys of a lifetime . In the old days ( the last 30 years ) this would be at or near the bottom and buying many of these you’d make 3-5 times your money in the coming yrs. But is this time different ? Are we staring at a Japan type mkt down 50-70% and sideways for decades? the mkts always come right back after a bear since the 1980’s . Is this time different ? With so many peoples retirements in the mkt is this when the long term cruel bear teaches all a lesson? Nobody since the 1970’s in the mkt has ever been tested . No ones seen their portfolio down for 5-10 yrs . People long term hace only felt a year or 2 of pain then right back up . The fed printing was behind 50% of total returns the last 15 yrs . That’s over . It wood be a fitting 5-10 yr top . Rates near zero , 10’s of millions of Reddit traders gambling for easy money ,house prices skying . Time will tell.
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I think that is an extreme view. The pull back will be not as severe, because of the reasons you quoted, because many of them no longer hinder the markets now.
 
As mentioned elsewhere on this forum. Dr. Burry has conviction that there is far, far more pain to come for anyone who is long and thinks we are even close to a bottom.

And the worst of it, is that we can no longer depend on the Fed Put to come and save us this time.

Remain in your seats and hold on fellas...
 
The_Krakenite said:
As mentioned elsewhere on this forum. Dr. Burry has conviction that there is far, far more pain to come for anyone who is long and thinks we are even close to a bottom.

And the worst of it, is that we can no longer depend on the Fed Put to come and save us this time.

Remain in your seats and hold on fellas...
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Recent filing shows he bought a bunch of Google.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/...922010747/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml

Historically, his timing could have been better. Kinda important if you're using options for leverage.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-burry-nukes-his-portfolio-exits-all-bearish-positions
 
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