It Ain't Right to Kick a Woman

[shortie]

She noted improvement in private-sector hiring, strong durable goods orders and strong corporate balance sheets. She also reiterated her forecast for the Standard & Poor's 500 reaching 1450.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44346481/September_Might_Not_Be_So_Bad_for_Stocks_Cohen
Aug 31, 2011

Could Abby be right? Even with the crazy rally in the last 2 weeks she still has 230 points to go until the end of the year. :eek:

 

[shortie]

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from shortie:

She noted improvement in private-sector hiring, strong durable goods orders and strong corporate balance sheets. She also reiterated her forecast for the Standard & Poor's 500 reaching 1450.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44346481/September_Might_Not_Be_So_Bad_for_Stocks_Cohen
Aug 31, 2011

Could Abby be right? Even with the crazy rally in the last 2 weeks she still has 230 points to go until the end of the year. :eek:

MILF!

 

[shortie]

+14% rally in 2 weeks seems a bit excessive :eek:

 

[shortie]

Abby is staying the course. This is from last week:

Take Goldman Sachs seer Abby Joseph Cohen. Wall Street’s best-known equity cheerleader told an attentive crowd of Toronto financial analysts last Tuesday that the markets have surely priced in just about every dreadful outcome imaginable by now. Valuation, she declared, “is already reflecting a pretty gloomy scenario.”

Indeed, the S&P 500 currently trades at between 11 and 12 times earnings, while the average in earlier periods of low inflation was above 18. At these levels, what are the markets saying about expected corporate profits and cash flow? Her answer: An “implicit” forecast that profit “will not be growing for at least the next decade. That is possible, but it’s not probable.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...g-out-new-risks-to-the-market/article2196165/

 

[SnakeEYE]

1444

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from SnakeEYE:

1444

True only if your variable (let us call it X) stays equal to what it has has been so far --- You know what X is, and I assume you are not stating it here on purpose. Your assumption is valid 5% of the time (in the best case).

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from shortie:

+14% rally in 2 weeks seems a bit excessive :eek:

It could be viewed that way, but what I found excessive is rather the high VXX, and the too fast fall in the latest bear leg.

The rest rise is rather a proxy of a top/bear leg in volty.

I have another hypothesis for how volty would "die out".

 

[shortie]

sharp rally = bear market rally

this move in SPY is quite vertical, just like the other thrusts in Aug-Sep 2011. similarly, we should go down sooooon.

probably won't be retesting the bottom for a few months as there are a lot of pessimists out there.

 

[shortie]

>1450 0 0%
1450 - Cohen forecast 2 8.00%
1350 - Mid (Cohen's and Goldman's) 4 16.00%
1250 - Goldman's revised forecast 5 20.00%
1150 - Goldman's uncertaity based model 3 12.00%
1050 - ~2011 Lows 3 12.00%
<1050 8 32.00%
Total: 25 votes 100%