ISM Mfg on 2nd Jan

[dhpar]

Given what happened exactly 6 years ago I thought it may be a good time to check what people think today. The number may very well be the most important economic event in first half of January. Will Fed panic if they see the number again in lower 40s? If not - why...?

 

[kashirin]

so if they panic what they should do?

to lower rates?

there is no chance for rate cuts.

rates _are_low_ now.

All those who ask for rate cuts are just spoiled by last 5 year rates
But those were historically low rates. It will probably never happen again.

Doesn't matter ISM numbers with oil at these prices FED will increase rates at least couple of times next year

 

[nazzdack]

The Summer-2007 Fed Funds contracts are "indicating" a slight easing bias. The Fed might "urge" Europe and Asia to also buy US stocks in addition to US governemnt securities with their surplus dollars.

 

[Bitstream]

i bet my arse fed wont raise rates.

 

[dhpar]

Quote from Bitstream:

i bet my arse fed wont raise rates.

I already did that

But remember 2001 --> http://money.cnn.com/2001/01/03/economy/fed/

Clearly many things at that time were very different: wealth, stock market, unemployment, spending and even ISM was below 50 for several months. But then we did not have a chairman who was obsessed with Great Depression...

 

[dhpar]

Quote from nazzdack:

The Summer-2007 Fed Funds contracts are "indicating" a slight easing bias. The Fed might "urge" Europe and Asia to also buy US stocks in addition to US governemnt securities with their surplus dollars.

you are hopeless. Maybe they will urge to buy only stock that you have in your portfolio...that would be handy

 

[BlueStreek]

lol

 

[dhpar]

ok - postponed to Jan 3rd.

 

[S2007S]

Quote from dhpar:

ok - postponed to Jan 3rd.

suprised to see them move data as well. I say release the data and see the market reaction on Wed morning.:eek: :eek: :eek:

 

[dhpar]

Quote from S2007S:

suprised to see them move data as well. I say release the data and see the market reaction on Wed morning.:eek: :eek: :eek:

actually now I am not sure - Bloomberg still says it occurs on the 2nd. FOMC minutes are definitely on 3rd. Anybody has some clear info?!