Island Reversal... potentially bearish

Why am I an idot?
The only reason why I think this is because I do believe that all the long term holders and dip buyers will be taken to the cleaners at some point. Your entire thesis is based on Trump and Powell continuing to do what they are doing. First of all, they don't have the final say. I know the name of the game is to not fight the FED, but the FED can very easily lose control of the whole damn thing. Since we all know this economy is fake, there are no fundamentals to keep it afloat.

I'm reminded of a company that made super tough glass for cell phones. They got so good that Apple was their biggest customer. On the day Apple announced changing suppliers and the stock dropped like 60 or 80% the very next day. So at this stage, the FED is the only thing keeping this market up. Do you really think millennials, or Robinhood traders, or unemployed with the government cheques can keep the market up? Anything can go wrong, but there is only one thing that has to keep going right in order to keep this gravy train going.

I'm not saying to fight the FED, but I am saying to have an exit plan. The run-up from the March lows was a gift. All you perma holders have been taught that even a 40% drop will be saved. So now you will watch with anticipation when it drops 50%, waiting for the next bailout. This may never come. But since you've been so conditioned, you will never sell and ride it to the bottom.
 
The only reason why I think this is because I do believe that all the long term holders and dip buyers will be taken to the cleaners at some point. Your entire thesis is based on Trump and Powell continuing to do what they are doing. First of all, they don't have the final say. I know the name of the game is to not fight the FED, but the FED can very easily lose control of the whole damn thing. Since we all know this economy is fake, there are no fundamentals to keep it afloat.

I'm reminded of a company that made super tough glass for cell phones. They got so good that Apple was their biggest customer. On the day Apple announced changing suppliers and the stock dropped like 60 or 80% the very next day. So at this stage, the FED is the only thing keeping this market up. Do you really think millennials, or Robinhood traders, or unemployed with the government cheques can keep the market up? Anything can go wrong, but there is only one thing that has to keep going right in order to keep this gravy train going.

I'm not saying to fight the FED, but I am saying to have an exit plan. The run-up from the March lows was a gift. All you perma holders have been taught that even a 40% drop will be saved. So now you will watch with anticipation when it drops 50%, waiting for the next bailout. This may never come. But since you've been so conditioned, you will never sell and ride it to the bottom.
NoahA,

I understand your point of view of having an exit plan.
 
island reversal 2020 0615.png
 
View attachment 230595 Any technician worth his salt will recognize this formation in the ES. If the market retraces back up to fill this gap and then reverses downwards, it will potentially be a significant bearish signal for the markets.

If your view has been that this rally from March has been "just a bear market bounce", this might be an ideal place to initiate shorts.... with appropriate stop, of course. KISS, baby!

FWIW...


lol doofus shorts and immediately takes over 40 points in heat. At no point was scat profitable on his call.
 
Get your ass long, and stay your ass strong. You couldn't pay my black ass to go short.

I repeat, you will NOT beat Donald Trump and his team and the Feds.

The S&P 500 index daily chart trend is upwards, and approaching recent highs in February 2020.

...and this kind of bullish sentiment

Perfect storm
 
...and this kind of bullish sentiment

Perfect storm
Yes sir, and I'm making a lot of money being a bull too. Long and Strong while bears keep trying to short, I'm making that easy money. Easy. And I dont even read the news article.

You guys been hollering bear market coming for the past 5 years, market at damn near 12 month highs.

Talking all that shit, while the simple people buying it up.
 
Yes sir, and I'm making a lot of money being a bull too. Long and Strong while bears keep trying to short, I'm making that easy money. Easy. And I dont even read the news article.

You guys been hollering bear market coming for the past 5 years, market at damn near 12 month highs.

Talking all that shit, while the simple people buying it up.

I wasn't one of those bears and I'm not arguing. It could go either way or take months to play out.

But if there was ever a technical signal for a large bear move, then an island reversal would be right up there. Also, $250B is a bandaid... on top of previous bandaid.
 
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