Is Yahoo done deal?

[Epiphany]

Quote from robbie380:

i am guessing you are a new trader.

limited risk and very high downside. this is not pure gambling.

You cannot claim 'limited risk' - sure if merger goes thru, you only lose ~$5 and if merger fails, you'll reap +$10 points

But how do you assign PROBABILITIES to each situation? So you're telling me you can get into the head of Yang and Balmer and predict how the negotiation will turn out?

Pure gambling.

 

[robbie380]

Quote from Epiphany:

You cannot claim 'limited risk' - sure if merger goes thru, you only lose ~$5 and if merger fails, you'll reap +$10 points

But how do you assign PROBABILITIES to each situation? So you're telling me you can get into the head of Yang and Balmer and predict how the negotiation will turn out?

Pure gambling.

i was editing my post when you replied sorry about that.

no you can't get ahead of them but you can tell from the talk that there was a significant chance that the deal would collapse when you looked at the apprehension from yhoo and its eagerness to explore other options. further msft holders already felt that they were bidding too much for yhoo and you knew yhoo wanted more money because jerry yang is insane.

anyhow...the scenario didn't play out exactly how i was looking for it. i didn't think MSFT would raise their bid by this much only to have crazy jerry yang say they wanted more. but there was major risk to the deal and you know that yhoo is probably worth about 50% less if the deal fails.

big time reward and minimized risk with put options. major risk is the time it takes for things to play out. not pure gambling.

 

[snowhite]

Quote from codedeep007:

I shorted 10 Oct 17.5 put @0.45, if the deal didn't work out, I will keep the shares

Get ready to blow.

 

[robbie380]

and i am also sorry if i am writing in very choppy short thoughts. hopefully, you get the points i am trying to get across.

 

[stock_trad3r]

Yahoo going back to 22

 

[robbie380]

Quote from snowhite:

Get ready to blow.

he may lose a point or so but i don't think he will get run over. people still have HOPE that yhoo can figure something out....but they won't because they are retards. either way it will give him time to get out of the trade if he chooses.

edit....he may be down a point in the trade tomorrow. i think selling the volatility here may be a good options trade. so maybe selling those 17.5 puts at this point in time isn't a terrible idea after the drop on monday.

 

[codedeep007]

I shorted 10 Oct 17.5 put @0.45, if the deal didn't work out, I will keep the shares

_________________________________

Shorted another 10 @0.79

 

[codedeep007]

Decker: We Never Got $33 Offer in Writing

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticke...ot-33-Offer-in-Writing?tickers=yhoo,msft,goog

Come on, my writing is in black and white! Who do you think I am?

 

[atticus]

Quote from codedeep007:

I shorted 10 Oct 17.5 put @0.45, if the deal didn't work out, I will keep the shares
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

_________________________________

Shorted another 10 @0.79

$.62 is the high on the day.

 

[stock_trad3r]

This stock is done. No one is gonna pay 37 or whatever and since yahoo keeps losing marketshare to google its share price will slowly erode. Yahoo has no growth and little potential.