Is volume analysis useful in index futures?

What matters to the price trader is not so much the volume accompanying the transaction, the tick, but rather where all of this is taking place, i.e., in what context. e.g., a buying or selling climax.


lcranston said:
What matters to the price trader is not so much the volume accompanying the transaction, the tick, but rather where all ["some", SIC] of this is taking place

Ditto that!!

The word "all" was used deliberately to note that the character of a particular transaction will depend in large part on what happened prior to the transaction. "All" may therefore include the previous day's activity, or that of the previous week.
 
The word "all" was used deliberately to note that the character of a particular transaction will depend in large part on what happened prior to the transaction. "All" may therefore include the previous day's activity, or that of the previous week.

Oooh... you were doing so well... until you said this. That's just blarney!
 
Sorry if I misunderstand, but it seems these two statements are contrary.

Perhaps you believe, as I once did, that tick charts are too detailed. I think one can find that that same price movements found in daily and intraday charts, along with the accompanying volume, can be found in tick charts.

They are not contrary if one views price movement during any given trading session as continuous. All charts are tick charts. The differences in charts that have not been cluttered have chiefly to do with the degree of zoom. Yes, literal tick charts are very detailed, which is important if one wants to know what's going on. But at some point, the price activity trails off the left-hand edge and one loses the context. In this case, zooming out in order to encompass a larger portion of the activity is appropriate, even if the ticks tend to resemble a line.

One can of course resort to bars of one sort or another, but doing so tends to disrupt the continuity, and the trader starts focusing on the bar rather than on price (e.g. most of what's written about intraday trading).
 
So... lemme throw out a challenge to all the "volume devotes".... graph up some plays in which volume played a big role in the trade and explain why you think volume consideration was vital. Send me PMs, and I'll try to show where you could have made the same play sooner or coincidentally from the price charts alone. If you are right, I'll admit to being wrong. (While you're at it, please also send graphs of good trades you missed because of your consideration for volume.)
I would hope you post your findings on here, while of course trying to protect the identity of any any members since it will be through PM. The reason I say this is because on several occasions, I have attempted to ask the member, @Sprout to show stats of his very careful analysis, and he never replies with said stats. I see when members ask for help, he is quick to show them his method with this lovely in depth bar analysis, but I never see those members coming back to say how much money they are raking in.

It all leads me to believe that as you say, sometimes it results in trades being missed because of analysis. Any time you add in one more consideration, unless it improves the win rate drastically, it will often mean winning trades are skipped.

I remember how smart I thought I was when I discovered cumulative delta. Jesus, here was something that would tell me if the buying or selling was aggressive and surely this would indicate with a high degree of accuracy where price was heading! I'm sure some people on here know how this ends.
 
But at some point, the price activity trails off the left-hand edge and one loses the context.
Yes, of course. I doubt that anyone uses single tick charts. I think many who trade ES use constant tick charts ranging from hundreds to thousands of ticks in order to maintain a view of context, and in order to apply TA.
 
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For those who are interested, DbPhoenix posted about twenty chart examples of volume analysis in the context of buying and selling climaxes and withdrawals of supply and demand here. Is it absolutely necessary? Maybe not. But for those who understand that volume is a measure of trading activity and not some mysterious indicator, it sure is helpful, particularly if one understands that price moves differently when only a relative few traders are involved than when a great many are trading, particularly at important levels.

And, no, volume neither precedes nor follows price; they are simultaneous since volume is a measure of transactions, and if there are no transactions, there will be no volume. Granted a large amount of volume will attract attention and perhaps a greater number of transactions, but that's a different dynamic.
Does he ever get around to talking about taking actual trades? From what I remember here at ET, he was very good at telling you where you could have, or should have entered, after the fact.
 
Yes, of course. I doubt that anyone uses single tick charts. I think many who trade ES use constant tick charts ranging from hundreds to thousands of ticks in order to maintain a view of context, and in order to apply TA.

I use 5s and 10s charts, which enable me to follow the ticks while also providing context. And I trade the NQ so I have no idea what those who trade the ES use. As to "applying TA", I analyze the price action. If by "TA" you mean indicators, I don't use them.
 
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