Is US equity market getting old (mature)?

H

hajimow

Before tech bubble, stocks like CSCO were hot and used to soared after the earnings. Not anymore.
A few years ago stocks like GOOG, PCLN, NFLX , ISRG, BIDU were soaring and were very volatile with big growth potential but not anymore.
Just up to last quarter, AAPL was the same but again it is fizzling.

I don't know any new stock which is hot anymore. I see most stocks are maturing. Explosive growth is not there anymore. There is no calatyst in the US stock market.
 
Quote from hajimow:

Before tech bubble, stocks like CSCO were hot and used to soared after the earnings. Not anymore.
A few years ago stocks like GOOG, PCLN, NFLX , ISRG, BIDU were soaring and were very volatile with big growth potential but not anymore.
Just up to last quarter, AAPL was the same but again it is fizzling.

I don't know any new stock which is hot anymore. I see most stocks are maturing. Explosive growth is not there anymore. There is no calatyst in the US stock market.
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Quite a narrative... I'm sure its true but we could range for a while or go up... money goes where its most rewarded and bonds aren't paying shit.... look at MasterCard..
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

Quite a narrative... I'm sure its true but we could range for a while or go up... money goes where its most rewarded and bonds aren't paying shit.... look at MasterCard..
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Another subject that you brought up about money fleeing from bond to stock. It can be true for just a portion of the bond market. Baby boomers and cash huggers are still scared to death to put their hard earned money into stocks. I believe majority of bond holders will stay in bond. Bond funds might become volatile but bond holders are safe if they keep it till maturity.
 
Quote from hajimow:

Another subject that you brought up about money fleeing from bond to stock. It can be true for just a portion of the bond market. Baby boomers and cash huggers are still scared to death to put their hard earned money into stocks. I believe majority of bond holders will stay in bond. Bond funds might become volatile but bond holders are safe if they keep it till maturity.
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Tell that to the Germans in the 1920's. Jesus, do we teach history in school anymore?
 
Quote from hajimow:

Another subject that you brought up about money fleeing from bond to stock. It can be true for just a portion of the bond market. Baby boomers and cash huggers are still scared to death to put their hard earned money into stocks. I believe majority of bond holders will stay in bond. Bond funds might become volatile but bond holders are safe if they keep it till maturity.
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I'm typically a complete pessimist...I agree with you...

Apple starts showing cracks and its a huge weight on the index .. we will take a shit...
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Tell that to the Germans in the 1920's. Jesus, do we teach history in school anymore?
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What's history gonna tell us about our current position... in your opinion
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Tell that to the Germans in the 1920's. Jesus, do we teach history in school anymore?
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It seems that you don't even believe bonds are safe. I see your concern :)
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

What's history gonna tell us about our current position... in your opinion
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The only way out of debt is war or default. Both lead to inflation. Both lead to a worthless currency. Your bonds will be paying you interest in monopoly money. With interest rates where they are now, one thing is certain, bond holders have zero chance of earning a real return.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

The only way out of debt is war or default. Both lead to inflation. Both lead to a worthless currency. Your bonds will be paying you interest in monopoly money. With interest rates where they are now, one thing is certain, bond holders have zero chance of earning a real return.
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+1 on that..... inflation is above the return of treasuries.... they pay the bonds back with inflated dollars.. plus they are printing Money to support this relationship... I can't see it ending well... but chances are bad things are gonna happen regardless....

Markets sitting on highs at low vol ... whatever the case you trade the market your in and don't get to hard set on narratives... this could sustain for a while..... I'd rather look for a long vol short equity position .... but I'll wait for the break...
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

+1 on that..... inflation is above the return of treasuries.... they pay the bonds back with inflated dollars.. plus they are printing Money to support this relationship... I can't see it ending well... but chances are bad things are gonna happen regardless....

Markets sitting on highs at low vol ... whatever the case you trade the market your in and don't get to hard set on narratives... this could sustain for a while..... I'd rather look for a long vol short equity position .... but I'll wait for the break...
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You would be better served looking for some cheap farmland and whatever ammo and guns are left at your local walmart. LOL.
 
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