Is Trying to Pick Bottom In Crude In Terrible Global Economy Like Chasing The Dragon?

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ByLoSellHi

How does that work?

Do people just say, "well, the economy sure sucks and looks like it's going to get a whole lot worse as the jobs losses snowball, but oil sure has dropped a lot, so f!$ck it, I'm going long!"
 
I don't think the real traders here are trying to predict a bottom, only reading the tape and techs. Market is acting like it has exhausted itself on the downside for the moment, and may have a larger correction within a continued bear market. looking at the charts and the action on extremely large builds, I personally and several others here are buyers for a trade, that is all. If we are wrong, we stop out and wait for another trade.
 
I'm not saying anything about whether or not it's a good idea, but I really don't see how it's like smoking opiates through a straw. Not even a little bit.
 
Quote from PAPA ROACH:

only reading the tape and techs. Market is acting like it has exhausted itself on the downside FOR THE MOMENT, and may have a larger correction within a continued bear market.
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Ditto. Perfectly worded.
 
I'm not sure at all if crude prices and worldwide GDP growth are at all correlated, even if accounting for a time lag. Anybody read any research on this?
 
Quote from makloda:

I'm not sure at all if crude prices and worldwide GDP growth are at all correlated, even if accounting for a time lag. Anybody read any research on this?
More...

You can bet your last red cent that the ultra-high prices we experienced can partially be blamed for the shitstorm we are in, not THE cause, but was a major catalyst.
 
Quote from PAPA ROACH:

I don't think the real traders here are trying to predict a bottom, only reading the tape and techs. Market is acting like it has exhausted itself on the downside for the moment, and may have a larger correction within a continued bear market. looking at the charts and the action on extremely large builds, I personally and several others here are buyers for a trade, that is all. If we are wrong, we stop out and wait for another trade.
More...

FWIW, this is a very rational response to what was an admittedly antagonistic thread title I intentionally planted.

Quote from makloda:

I'm not sure at all if crude prices and worldwide GDP growth are at all correlated, even if accounting for a time lag. Anybody read any research on this?
More...


I thought I saw a quip from a report somewhere talking about the cost to the world economy with each incremental $1 rise in crude prices somewhere, so I'd suspect that the losers outweigh the winners on a correlative chart with rising oil prices...then there's the whole essential 'tax' on global consumers on a relatively inflexible good (but entirely inflexible, as we learned, as people cut way back).
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

How does that work?

Do people just say, "well, the economy sure sucks and looks like it's going to get a whole lot worse as the jobs losses snowball, but oil sure has dropped a lot, so f!$ck it, I'm going long!"
More...
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Buy lowS , higher lows;

Well it may be a bearish sign, when Citigroup commodity co buys a tanker full of oil.;
when MS & Royal Dutch Shell do[did] it , maybe bullish.

Not sure any elites know oil trading/fundamentals as Royal Dutch does,; possible , but not likely.................................................................

And if USO, & crude got cut in half[again], still looks now like a good risk/reward for a medium or long term trade.
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Not sure what ''dropped a lot means'' means as you rightly imply;
but measured in many ways, longs have been attractive.

As far as how it works, not a prediction;
more so on technicals , psychology & looking ahead than fundamentals.
:cool:
 
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