is trend following really profitable?

Quote from Retief:

How is that nonsense? If a security is trending upward, higher prices are more likely to be followed by higher prices. And even if he did say something nonsensical, it doesn't negate everything else he posted that wasn't nonsense.
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No they are not, look at the studies, S&P500 futures are negatively correlated on a daily basis. Stocks are mean reverting and thats not an opinion, its what the numbers says
 
To answer another part of the OPs question, the most profitable systems are those that are always in the market AKA "Reversal systems". The theory is that it is then impossible to miss a large trend move because you are always either Long or Short. (You don't see the word impossible too often when it comes to trading) Lots of whipsaws and drawdowns are applicable here but testing does support this.
 
i've never understood the term 'trend trading'
but it seem to suggest such traders have no understanding of market dynamics which
for me and many others is a comparitively simply matter
for me a price movement in the same direction whether for a period of seconds or
months is a trend
choosing to remain in a seconds trend for many minute depends on the interpretation
from a higher timeframe, unless one wants to scalp the waves within the trend
so what's important istm is being able to guesstimate if you will a given timeframe's
price and time targets
while there are many theories and methods of how to guesstimate, 'trend trading's'
doable for me with the fibo tool and a basic understanding of EW
which in my bias makes it seem that anyone Not using these methods IS guessing
 
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